在中期选举前的一个月，两个众议院竞选委员会的成员们大多都会愁得头发变白。近两年来制定的战略、招募工作、宣传策略、动员行动以及各类数据分析与统计工作，最终都要在这最后阶段见分晓。这也是最危险的时期：最后关头出现的“暗钱”大量注入；恶意抹黑攻击；自家候选人犯下的失误可能像穿甲弹一样精准而致命地打击选情；还有整体选民倾向的突然逆转。
The month before the midterm elections is when most of the gray hairs emerge from the scalps at the two House congressional campaign committees. Nearly two years of strategizing, recruiting, messaging, mobilizing, analyzing and tabulating come down to a final sprint. It’s also the most perilous time: that last-minute “dark-money dump”; a smear attack; the gaffe by one of your own candidates that lands with all the precision and nuance of a bunker-buster bomb; the plunge or rise of the generic ballot. I get it.
我深有体会——我曾于2012年和2014年两度担任民主党众议院竞选委员会主席。每次选举前的30天不仅让人愁白了头，更让人心惊胆战。目前的主流舆论认为：民主党有望拿下众议院，在参议院也有胜算。但在这表象之下，还有一些不容忽视的关键因素。以下是未来30天内有助于做出理性分析的五点要点。首先，要关注处于动态变化的“战场”。
I was the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for two cycles, 2012 and 2014. The 30 days before each election were not only hair-graying, they were hair-raising. The popular narrative is set: the Democrats are expected to flip the House and have a possible shot in the Senate. But beneath that narrative are fundamental elements that shouldn’t be overlooked. Here are five key takeaways that should guide an informed analysis over the next 30 days. First, focus on the battlefield, which is dynamic.
据《库克政治报告》（我认为该报告对中期选举局势的反映最为准确）显示，目前众议院共有22个完全势均力敌的选区：其中6个由民主党掌控，16个由共和党掌控。若再算上11个倾向民主党、10个倾向共和党的选区，那么决定众议院多数党归属的关键选区便仅有43个而已。参议院的情况则有所不同：库克报告将6个共和党控制的参议院席位列为势均力敌（阿拉斯加州、艾奥瓦州、堪萨斯州、缅因州、俄亥俄州和得克萨斯州），另有一个民主党控制的席位（密歇根州）也属于此类。
According to the Cook Political Report (which I find the most credible in capturing the midterm state of play), there are currently 22 pure toss-up seats in the House: six held by Democrats and 16 held by Republicans. You can widen the aperture to another 11 districts that lean Democratic and ten that lean Republican. In other words, the next House majority is likely to turn on the outcome in just 43 districts. The Senate tells a different story. Cook rates six Republican-held Senate seats as toss-ups (Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas) and one Democratic-held seat (Michigan).
再加上新罕布什尔州那个倾向民主党的席位，便构成了整个参议院的竞选版图。民主党要想获得多数席位，必须净增4个席位，因此他们在选举当晚的表现必须超出预期。其次，忽略民调数据，转而关注趋势变化。
Add to that a lean-Democratic seat in New Hampshire, and you have the entirety of the Senate battlefield. The Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the majority, so they must overperform on election night. Second, disregard the polls and study the trends.
过去几周以来，对共和党而言不利的局势持续演变，各选区形势逐渐向民主党倾斜。上周，库克政治报告将15个选区的评级调至对民主党有利。一连串连锁反应随之发生：4个原本被判定为“共和党稳胜”的选区变为“共和党有望胜出”；6个“共和党有望胜出”的选区变为“共和党略占优势”；3个“共和党略占优势”的选区变为“胜负难料”；还有2个“胜负难料”的选区则变为“民主党略占优势”。
For the past several weeks, a bleak environment for Republicans has steadily shifted races toward the Democrats. Last week, Cook moved 15 race ratings in the Democrats’ favor. In a domino cascade, four “Solid Republican” districts moved to “Likely Republican”; six “Likely Republican” districts moved to “Lean Republican”; three “Lean Republican” districts moved to “Toss-Up”; and two “Toss-Up” districts moved to “Lean Democratic.”
导致共和党支持率不断下滑的原因，用两个词就能概括：唐纳德·特朗普。至少目前来看，他的支持率成了拖累共和党的沉重负担，尤其是在那些竞争激烈的选区。据库克政治报告的调查，特朗普在这些选区的支持率堪称“致命弱点”：仅有42%的选民认可他，不认可的比例则高达58%。不过还有一个看似有趣却容易产生误导的指标：在这些选区，选民对民主党的普遍支持率仅比共和党高出2个百分点（49%对47%）。
Third, what’s driving the erosion for Republicans is best explained in two words: Donald Trump. His numbers are, at least at the moment, an anchor weighing down Republicans, particularly in competitive districts. According to a Cook survey, Trump’s job approval in those districts is at the levels of kryptonite: 42 percent approve and 58 percent disapprove. But here’s a more interesting and initially misleading indicator: the generic ballot favors the Democrats in those districts by only 2 points (49 percent to 47 percent).
表面上看差距不大，但要知道这一数值较去年已向民主党倾斜了7个百分点，而特朗普当年在这些选区的平均胜率也达到了5个百分点。
Seems tight, until you understand that it has swung 7 points toward Democrats since last year and that Trump carried those same districts by an average of 5 points.
为何会出现这种局面呢？竞争激烈的选区中有三类选民正在塑造当前的政治格局。第一类是民主党基本盘，他们的积极性正处于高涨状态。如今民主党人抵制特朗普领导的共和党的热情，简直如同核能般强劲。第二类是共和党基本盘，他们也给共和党带来了挑战。根据路透社/益普索近期的一项调查，73%的共和党选民对特朗普表示认可。
Why is this happening? Three groups of voters in competitive districts are shaping the current political environment. First, there’s the Democratic base, which is supercharged. Enthusiasm among Democrats to vote against Trump Republicans is at the level of nuclear energy. Second, there’s the Republican base, which presents its own challenges. According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos survey, 73 percent of Republican voters approve of Trump.
这一比例虽然不算低，但较今年1月已下降了约13个百分点。我并非认为这些选民会在中期选举中转而支持民主党，但其中一部分人很可能会干脆放弃投票。第三类则是独立选民与摇摆选民。他们通常反感极端的意识形态倾向；一旦觉得共和党或民主党做得太过头，就会对双方都加以惩戒。他们始终支持权力制衡机制。
Not bad — but down about 13 points since January. I’m not suggesting that these voters will support a Democrat in the midterms, but some may simply stay home. The third group is of independent and swing voters. They often resist ideological extremes; they punish Republicans and Democrats alike when they believe they’ve gone too far. They support checks and balances.
特朗普在这些选民中的支持率一直维持在20%多到30%出头的水平。如果无法激发基本盘的投票热情，而独立选民又普遍倾向于反对自己，那么就很难找到足够多的可争取选民来赢得这些选区的胜利。第四，尽管形势严峻，共和党人仍有一线希望：资金。据《新共和》杂志报道，该党已在众议院选举中支出或预定了4.54亿美元，而民主党仅支出3.81亿美元。
Trump’s approval among them has been averaging in the high 20s to mid-30s. If you can’t energize your base and independent voters are leaning hard against you, it’s hard to find enough persuadable voters to win in these districts. Fourth, there’s a silver lining for Republicans in the thunderous sky: money. According to The New Republic, the party has spent or booked $454 million on House races, compared Democrats’ $381 million.
9月的前三周，在7个胜负难料的参议院席位争夺战中，共和党的投入资金比民主党多出1亿美元以上。问题在于：这些资金能否让选民相信物价水平不高、经济状况良好，且伊朗战争并非什么大问题呢？在那些胜负可能仅取决于几千张选票的选区，资金投入或许能帮助共和党。但对许多选民而言，选举结果其实早已注定。
In the first three weeks of September, Republicans outspent Democrats by more than $100 million in the seven toss-up Senate races. The question is: will money be enough to convince voters that prices are low, the economy is fine and the war in Iran isn’t a problem? Money in a ground game could help Republicans in districts whose outcome may rest on a few thousand votes. But for many voters, the election is baked in already.
第五，请牢记历史规律：中期选举本质上是对现任总统及其所属政党的公投。历史上仅有少数几次中期选举——尤其是1934年、1998年和2002年——现任总统所在的政党成功增加了众议院席位。未来30天内可能会出现各种危机，但历史规律与当前的政治环境都表明，民主党极有可能夺回众议院控制权……甚至还有可能拿下参议院。
Fifth — remember your history. Midterms are always a referendum on the president and his party. In only a handful of midterms — notably 1934, 1998 and 2002 — has a sitting president’s party picked up House seats. The next 30 days have the potential for all sorts of crises. But history and the current political environment suggest that Democrats are strongly favored to flip the House ... and maybe even the Senate.
敬请关注后续报道。史蒂夫·伊斯雷尔曾连续八届担任纽约州众议员，并于2011年至2015年间担任民主党国会竞选委员会主席。
Stay tuned. Steve Israel represented New York in the House of Representatives for eight terms and was chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee from 2011 to 2015.