11月3日的美国中期选举正占据着国内外新闻头条。此次选举的赌注极高。中期选举将决定哪个政党控制美国国会，进而决定特朗普任内最后两年的施政方向。选举还将决定关键的州和地方职位。
The United States midterms on November 3 are dominating national and international headlines. The stakes of the election are high. The midterm race will determine which party controls the US Congress, and in turn, shape the direction of Trump’s final two years in office. It will also decide key state and local positions.
但在中期选举中取得大胜，可能不足以撼动华盛顿特区的权力平衡。
But notching big wins in the midterm election may not be enough to shake up the balance of power in Washington, DC.
为帮助理解今年中期选举的影响及未来走向，半岛电视台整理了这份简明指南。以下是美国中期选举在联邦层面举足轻重的原因。中期选举发生在总统任期的中点，因此行政职位不在选票之上。
To understand the implications of this year’s midterm election and what may come next, Al Jazeera has put together this simple primer. Here’s why the US midterms matter at the federal level. Midterm elections fall at the halfway point of a president’s term, meaning the executive office will not be on the ballot.
焦点将集中在国会控制权的争夺上。美国立法机构由两院组成：众议院和参议院。
Front and centre will be the battle for control of Congress. Two chambers make up the US legislature: the House of Representatives and the Senate.
由于众议员任期两年，众议院所有435个席位将在11月3日改选。然而，大多数选区的竞争已被视为走过场，有明显的领跑者。
Because members of the House serve two-year terms, all 435 seats in the chamber are up for election on November 3. However, most races are already considered formalities, with a clear frontrunner.
这使得只有少数选区——约50个——将决定谁将赢得众议院多数党地位。
That leaves only a handful of races — about 50 — to decide who will win the House majority.
尽管情况可能变化，但几乎所有权威的选举预测机构都预测民主党将赢得众议院控制权，有的预测优势多达15个席位。然而，民主党赢得参议院多数党的机会较渺茫。
While subject to change, nearly every reputable election prognosticator has predicted that Democrats will win control of the House, some by as many as 15 seats. The Democrats have a slimmer chance of winning a majority in the Senate, however.
参议院仅有100个席位。但因参议员实行任期六年的交错改选制，本次仅有35个席位改选。其中仅约十几个选区被视为有竞争力。
That chamber has only 100 seats. But because senators have staggered six-year terms, only 35 seats are up for election. Only about a dozen of those races are considered competitive.
尽管如此，随着有竞争力的选区增多，民主党夺取参议院控制权的几率有所上升。
Still, Democrats have seen their odds of seizing the Senate increase, as the number of competitive races has grown.
左翼候选人在得克萨斯州和堪萨斯州等深红州取得进展，为民主党在本选举周期争取参议院多数党地位创造了更多机会。
Left-wing candidates have made inroads in deep-red states like Texas and Kansas, creating more opportunities for the Democratic Party to claim a Senate majority this election cycle.
因为美国副总统在参议院拥有决定性一票，民主党需要获得51个席位才能控制该议院。
Because the US vice president breaks ties in the Senate, Democrats would need 51 seats to control the chamber.
国会负责通过法律和批准联邦预算。但即使某个党派同时控制国会两院的多数席位，也未必足以掌控国家的立法议程。
Congress passes laws and approves federal budgets. But even if a party secures a majority in both chambers of Congress, it may not be enough to control the country’s legislative agenda.
在众议院，法案可由简单多数通过；但在参议院，通常需要60票的绝对多数才能终结被称为“冗长辩论”的程序。这一程序允少数派无限期拖延立法进程，除非有绝对多数投票终止辩论。
Laws can pass by a simple majority in the House, but they typically need a supermajority of 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a process known as the filibuster. That process can allow a minority group to stall legislation indefinitely, barring a supermajority.
因此，除非某个党派在参议院赢得超过60个席位，否则大多数立法仍需要至少一定程度的两党支持才能通过。
Therefore, unless a party wins more than 60 seats in the Senate, most legislation will still require at least some level of bipartisan support to pass.
即使法案通过两院，总统也可以否决提交其案头的任何法案。推翻总统否决需要众参两院各自达到三分之二的绝对多数。要获得推翻总统否决所需的广泛两党支持极为罕见。
Even if legislation passes both chambers, the president can veto any bill that comes across his desk. Overriding a presidential veto requires a two-thirds supermajority in both the House and the Senate. Achieving the broad bipartisan support needed to overcome a presidential veto is exceedingly rare.
上一次发生这种情况是在2021年1月，特朗普首个任期期间。当时美国总统已在2020年大选中落败，当他试图否决一项国防支出法案时，共和党议员对他的支持瓦解了。
The last time it happened was in January 2021, during Trump’s first term. At the time, the US president had lost the 2020 election, and he saw his support from Republican lawmakers dissipate when he attempted to veto a defence spending bill.
尽管如此，仍有两党支持克服总统异议的案例。今年早些时候，一项增加住房供应的法案在众参两院均以足以推翻否决的多数票通过，尽管特朗普曾明确表示反对。
Still, there are instances when bipartisan support overcomes presidential objections. A bill to increase the housing supply passed both the House and Senate with veto-proof majorities earlier this year, despite Trump’s stated opposition.
共和党目前在国会掌握两个多数派地位，在参议院拥有53个席位，在众议院拥有218个席位。
Republicans currently hold two majorities in Congress, with 53 seats in the Senate and 218 in the House.
随着特朗普入主白宫，这意味着该党在过去两年里掌握了所谓的政府“三权合一”，掌控三大权力杠杆。
With Trump in the White House, that means the party has held a so-called government “trifecta” over the last two years, with three levers of power under its command.
国会中的共和党多数派帮助特朗普通过了部分标志性立法，包括向移民与海关执法局（ICE）大幅增拨资金，以及作为全面的2025年税法案一部分削减部分公共资助的医疗保健形式。
The Republican majorities in Congress have helped Trump pass some of his signature legislation, including surging funding to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and cleaving back some forms of publicly funded healthcare as part of a sweeping 2025 tax bill.
但共和党的席位数量不足以通过特朗普的全部立法愿望清单。值得注意的是，他在民主党反对下未能通过其标志性的联邦选民身份识别法，即“拯救美国法案”（SAVE America Act）。
But Republicans’ numbers have not been enough to pass Trump’s entire legislative wishlist. Notably, he has been unable to pass his signature federal voter identification law, dubbed the “SAVE America Act“, amid Democratic opposition.
也有少数议题上共和党人违抗了特朗普，尤其是关税问题。还有几名共和党人投票主张国会对美以与伊朗的战争行使权力。
There have also been a handful of issues where Republicans have defied Trump, particularly on tariffs. A few Republicans have also voted to assert congressional authority over the US-Israel war with Iran.
如果共和党在11月的选举中保持对众参两院的控制，其多数派地位可能继续助推特朗普的立法议程。但有一个重要的警示。
If the Republican Party maintains control of both the House and Senate in November’s race, its majorities could continue to help Trump’s legislative agenda. But there is an important caveat.
随着2028年大选临近，议员们将焦虑地关注选民情绪。由于特朗普无法寻求第三个任期，一些共和党人在未来两年内可能更有意愿公开对抗这位跛脚鸭总统，以提振自身的选举前景。
Lawmakers will be keeping an anxious eye on voter sentiment as the 2028 elections approach. With Trump unable to seek a third term, some Republicans may have more appetite to publicly oppose the lame-duck president during the next two years, in order to boost their election prospects.
如果共和党保持对参议院的控制但失去众议院，他们仍能帮助特朗普确认其提名的关键联邦职位人选。
If Republicans maintain control of the Senate but lose the House, they would still be able to help Trump confirm his nominees for key federal roles.
数百个联邦职位需要参议院以简单多数批准，包括司法部门职位，其中包含最高法院大法官。
Hundreds of federal positions require approval from a simple majority in the Senate, including roles in the judiciary, including Supreme Court justices.
除少数例外，控制国会的政党可以决定提交哪些立法进行表决以及何时表决。
The party in control of Congress, with a few exceptions, can determine what legislation is brought to a vote and when.
但对民主党而言，在一院或两院赢得多数的最重大后果，将是未来两年内有能力阻止特朗普将其议程立法化。
But for Democrats, the most significant outcome of winning a majority in one or both chambers would be the ability to block Trump from legislating his agenda over the next two years.
也就是说，分析人士预计民主党主导的国会将采取主要为防守的姿态，击退特朗普的提案。
That said, analysts expect a Democrat-led Congress to take a largely defensive stance, batting down Trump’s proposals.
采取进攻——并推动自身立法议程——将更加困难，即使该党在众议院和参议院都赢得多数席位。民主党主导的法案仍将面临特朗普的否决权。
Going on offence — and passing their own legislative agenda — will be far more difficult, even if the party wins a majority in both the House and Senate. Democrat-led laws would still face Trump’s veto power.
然而，掌握多数席位将有助于民主党议员将政策优先事项纳入“必须通过”的拨款立法中。政府停摆的幽灵可能迫使共和党通过预算法案，即使他们对所有条款并未达成一致。
However, holding majorities would help Democratic members slip policy priorities into “need-to-pass” funding legislation. The spectre of a government shutdown could pressure Republicans to pass budget bills, even if they do not agree on all the terms.
民主党还可以将议题提交表决，迫使国会中的共和党人反对受欢迎的政策，或仅仅是在分歧问题上公开表态。
Democrats can also bring topics to a vote to force congressional Republicans to oppose popular policies or simply take a public stance on divisive issues.
众议院少数党领袖杰弗里斯为民主党若掌控众议院制定了一项100天计划。议程首位的是对特朗普支持的医疗保健资金削减进行表决，主张国会对美国与伊朗战争的权力，以及推翻特朗普的关税计划。
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has laid out a 100-day plan for if Democrats take control of the chamber. Topping the agenda are votes on Trump-backed healthcare funding cuts, asserting congressional authority over the US-Israel war with Iran and rolling back Trump’s tariff programme.
这些问题已分裂了共和党基本盘，并将为已为2028年选举预热的立法者带来棘手的两难困境。
Those issues have split the Republican base and would pose thorny dilemmas for lawmakers already posturing for the 2028 vote.
随着特朗普在11月选举前为共和党候选人造势，他反复表达担忧，认为民主党控制国会可能导致一种最终结果：他的第三次弹劾。
As Trump rallies on behalf of Republicans in the run-up to November’s vote, he has repeatedly expressed concern that Democratic control of Congress could lead to one eventuality: his third impeachment.
特朗普在其第一个任期内已被弹劾两次。“如果我们不赢，他们最终会弹劾我，”他10月初在俄克拉荷马州杜兰特的一次集会上表示。
Trump was already impeached twice during his first term. “If we don’t win, they’ll end up impeaching me,” he told a rally in Durant, Oklahoma, in early October.
如果民主党确实掌控众议院或参议院，他们将接管数十个委员会的领导权。通过这些委员会，他们可以启动调查——拥有传票权——调查一系列议题。一些民主党人已表示，调查特朗普家族腐败指控将是首要任务。
If Democrats do take control of the House or the Senate, they will take over leadership of dozens of committees. Through those committees, they can launch investigations — with subpoena power — into an array of subjects. Some Democrats have already said probing allegations of Trump family corruption will be a top priority.
众议院议员还可以提出弹劾条款，并最终以简单多数投票弹劾联邦官员，包括总统。
House lawmakers can also introduce articles of impeachment and ultimately vote to impeach federal officials, including the president, with a simple majority.
然而，参议院需要以三分之二多数票投票定罪该官员，才能将其免职。
However, the Senate would need to vote to convict the official with a two-thirds majority before they can be removed from office.
或许更重要的是，如果民主党赢得参议院控制权，他们将能够阻止特朗普在其任期最后两年内对关键职位人选的确认。
Perhaps more significantly, if Democrats win control of the Senate, they would be able to block the confirmation of Trump appointees in key roles during his final two years in office.
民主党的强势表现可能预示着对特朗普政府的不满，但在许多定义选举季的问题上，不会出现迅速、切实的变化。
A Democratic surge is likely to signal discontent with the Trump administration, but there will not be a swift, tangible change on many of the issues that have defined the election season.
例如，如果民主党在国会两院都获得多数席位，他们可以运用自身影响力，试图解决可负担性问题，深入探讨住房、医疗保健和生活成本等议题。
For example, if Democrats secure both majorities in Congress, they could assert their leverage to seek to address affordability issues, drilling into topics like housing, healthcare and the cost of living.
但他们几乎无法立即改变导致汽油和杂货价格高昂的众多因素。任何进展很可能都是艰苦的、缓慢的和渐进的。美国与以色列对伊朗的战争也是如此。
But they can do little to immediately change the myriad factors that led to the high price of petrol and groceries. Any gains would most likely be hard-fought, slow-coming and incremental. The same is true for the US-Israel war with Iran.
根据美国宪法，只有国会可以宣战，而国会自二战以来尚未宣战。历届总统长期以来利用各种法律论点来规避这一宪法要求。
Under the US Constitution, only Congress can declare war, something it has not done since World War II. Presidents have long used various legal arguments to circumvent that constitutional requirement.
最近，特朗普政府认为，美国与以色列对伊朗的战争不需要国会授权，因为总统有责任保护美国人民。
Most recently, the Trump administration argued that the US-Israel war with Iran did not require authorisation from Congress because the president has a duty to protect the American people.
特朗普还认为，这场战争已经多次开始和停止，每次都重新开始了他获得国会授权的60天期限。
Trump has also argued that the war has started and stopped several times, each time renewing the 60-day window he has to receive Congress’s authorisation.
为了重申国会宣战的权力，民主党可以通过一项具有法律约束力的“战争权力决议”来约束特朗普，但他们需要三分之二的支持才能推翻总统的否决权。
To reassert Congress’s authority to declare war, Democrats could pass a legally binding “war powers resolution” to rein in Trump, but they would need two-thirds support to overcome the presidential veto.
即使决议能够推翻否决权，专家表示，如果特朗普无视国会的意愿，美国司法部门将如何反应尚不清楚。
Even if a resolution were able to overcome the veto, experts say it is unclear how the US judiciary would respond if Trump were to flout Congress’s will.
尽管如此，民主党仍可利用对国会的控制权，试图切断战争的任何资金。
Still, Democrats could use control of Congress to attempt to stifle any funding for the war.