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2026年美国中期选举:地图与图表US midterm elections 2026 in maps and charts

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11月3日,约2.1亿名登记选民将决定唐纳德·特朗普在其美国总统任期剩余时间里拥有多大权力。

On November 3, about 210 million registered voters will decide how much power Donald Trump has for the rest of his US presidency.

特朗普本人不在选票上,但美国国会的控制权悬而未决。国会由众议院和参议院组成,负责制定国家法律并掌控联邦开支。

Trump is not on the ballot, but control of the United States Congress is. Made up of the House of Representatives and the Senate, Congress writes the country’s laws and controls federal spending.

在这篇图文解说中,半岛电视台梳理了选举如何运作、哪些竞选至关重要,以及结果对两党可能意味着什么。中期选举中会发生什么?中期选举在美国总统四年任期的中途举行,决定国会的组成。

In this visual explainer, Al Jazeera breaks down how the elections work, which races matter and what the results could mean for either party. What happens in the midterm elections? Held halfway through a US president’s four-year term, midterm elections decide the makeup of Congress.

众议院全部435个席位和参议院100个席位中的35个将进行角逐,其中包括佛罗里达州和俄亥俄州的特别选举,以填补美国国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥和副总统JD·万斯留下的空缺席位。36个州的选民还将选举州长。众议员各代表一个国会选区,任期两年;参议员任期六年。中期选举也被广泛视为对在任总统表现的公投。

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats are being contested, including special elections in the states of Florida and Ohio to fill the seats vacated by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance. Voters in 36 states will also elect governors. House members represent one congressional district each and serve two-year terms, while senators serve six-year terms. Midterm elections are also widely considered a referendum on the sitting president’s performance.

据乔治·华盛顿大学政治管理学教授托德·贝尔特统计,自1946年以来,总统所在政党在中期选举中平均失去26.5个众议院席位和少量参议院席位。除了国会和州长,选民还将选举州议员和地方官员。

Since 1946, the president’s party has lost an average of 26.5 seats in the House and a handful in the Senate in midterm elections, according to Todd Belt, a professor of political management at George Washington University. Beyond Congress and governors, voters will also elect state legislators and local officials.

乔治城大学政府学教授娜迪亚·布朗表示,虽然全国大选最受关注,“但重要的是要记住,地方政治是大多数美国人与政府打交道的地方。”她补充说:“选票上的地方提案或公投将影响人们的日常生活。”众议院和参议院有什么利害关系?

Nadia Brown, a professor of government at Georgetown University, said that while national elections get most of the attention, “It is important to remember that local politics is where most Americans interact with government.”She added that “It is the local propositions or referendums on ballots [that] will impact the everyday lives of people.”What is at stake in the House and Senate?

共和党在参众两院均占多数。失去任一议院的控制权,都将赋予民主党阻挠立法、并对特朗普政府发起调查的权力。

Republicans hold majorities in both chambers. Losing either would give Democrats the power to block legislation and launch investigations into Trump’s administration.

民主党需要在众议院净增三个席位、在参议院净增四个席位才能夺得控制权。若参议院出现 50 比 50 的平局,共和党仍将掌控参议院,因为副总统万斯拥有决定性一票。

Democrats need to gain three seats in the House and four in the Senate to take control. A 50-50 split in the Senate would leave Republicans in control, because Vance can cast tie-breaking votes.

贝尔特表示,民主党获胜可能会大幅限制特朗普推行国内议程的能力。

Belt said a Democratic victory could significantly limit Trump’s ability to pursue his domestic agenda.

“如果民主党夺得一院控制权,除政府拨款法案外,所有立法都将陷入停滞,”他对半岛电视台表示。众议院选举如何运作?众议院是美国国会的下院。

“If Democrats take one chamber, all non-government funding legislation will grind to a halt,” he told Al Jazeera. How do House elections work? The House of Representatives is the lower house of the US Congress.

其 435 名议员各代表一个地方选区,任期两年,因此每两年所有席位都要改选。

Its 435 members each represent one local district and serve two-year terms, so every seat is contested every two years.

席位依据每十年一次的美国人口普查,按各州人口比例分配。人口最多的加利福尼亚州拥有 52 个席位,人口最少的怀俄明州和佛蒙特州等各有一个席位。一个政党需要 218 个席位才能占据多数。

Seats are divided among the states by population, based on the US Census conducted every 10 years. California, the most populous state, has 52 seats, while the least populous, such as Wyoming and Vermont, have one each. A party needs 218 seats for a majority.

共和党目前控制众议院,拥有 218 个席位,民主党 214 个,还有一名独立议员与共和党结盟。另有两个席位空缺,上届分别由两党议员持有。新一届众议院将于 2027 年 1 月 3 日宣誓就职。值得关注的众议院竞选每个选区选出一名议员,赢得 218 个席位的政党即掌控众议院,因此少数激烈选区的微弱胜负就能决定多数党归属。

Republicans currently control the House, with 218 seats to the Democrats’ 214, and one independent sits with the Republicans. Two seats are vacant, one last held by each party. The new House will be sworn in on January 3, 2027. The House races to watch Each district elects its own representative, and the party that wins 218 seats takes control, so a few narrow wins in close districts can decide the majority.

贝尔特估计,约有 35 个众议院选区的竞选将决定多数党归属。他预测民主党可能净增约 15 个席位,尽管共和党通过重划选区,据称在额外九个选区占据优势。

Belt estimates that about 35 House races could decide the majority. He predicts Democrats could gain about 15 seats, despite Republican redistricting that he says has given the party an advantage in nine additional districts.

“选民通常投‘全票’,即倾向于为同一政党的所有候选人投票,因此这也可能波及同票竞选的其他职位,”他说。

“People generally vote straight ticket, meaning they will vote for all the candidates of one party, so this is likely to affect down-ballot races [as well],” he said.

关键战场选区是指两党都有现实获胜希望的席位。下方图表重点介绍了12场值得关注的关键竞选。参议院选举如何运作?参议院是美国国会的上议院。

A battleground district is a seat either party could realistically win. The graphic below highlights 12 of these key races to watch. How do Senate elections work? The Senate is the upper house of the US Congress.

其100名成员由各州全州选举产生,每州两名,不论人口多少,任期六年,约三分之一的席位每两年改选一次。

Its 100 members, two from each state regardless of population, are elected statewide and serve six-year terms, with about a third of seats contested every two years.

今年将进行33个席位的常规选举,此外佛罗里达州和俄亥俄州将举行特别选举。这两场竞选将填补马尔科·鲁比奥和JD·万斯原任期剩余的两年。在35个参选席位中,共和党占据22个,民主党占据13个。

This year, 33 seats are being contested in regular elections, alongside special elections in Florida and Ohio. Those two contests will fill the remaining two years of terms previously held by Marco Rubio and JD Vance. Of the 35 seats being contested, Republicans hold 22, and Democrats hold 13.

共和党目前拥有53名参议员。民主党有45名,另有两名独立人士与其结盟,使民主党阵营拥有47个席位。

Republicans currently have 53 senators. Democrats have 45, and two independents sit with them, giving the Democratic bloc 47 seats.

民主党需要净增四个席位达到51席才能夺取控制权。共和党只要保住50席即可维持控制,因为副总统万斯可在票数相同时投下决定性一票。新一届参议院将于2027年1月3日宣誓就职。值得关注的参议院竞选要赢得参议院控制权,民主党必须守住正在防守的13个席位,并夺取共和党占据的席位。

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51 and take control. Republicans can keep control with 50 because Vice President Vance can break tied votes. The new Senate will be sworn in on January 3, 2027. The Senate races to watch To win the Senate, Democrats must hold the 13 seats they are defending and flip Republican-held ones.

在佐治亚州,民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫将面对共和党人迈克·科林斯。密歇根州的空缺席位由民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德对阵共和党人迈克·罗杰斯,而在新罕布什尔州的空缺席位上,民主党人克里斯·帕帕斯将面对共和党人约翰·苏努努。

In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff faces Republican Mike Collins. Michigan’s open seat pits Democrat Abdul El-Sayed against Republican Mike Rogers, while Democrat Chris Pappas faces Republican John Sununu for an open seat in New Hampshire.

共和党占据的席位在其他地方也给民主党带来机会。在缅因州,参议员苏珊·柯林斯面对民主党人特洛伊·杰克逊,后者在初选获胜者格雷厄姆·普拉特纳于7月退出后接替参选。北卡罗来纳州的空缺席位由民主党人罗伊·库珀对阵共和党人迈克尔·沃特利。

Republican-held seats offer Democrats opportunities elsewhere. In Maine, Senator Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson, who replaced primary winner Graham Platner after he withdrew in July. North Carolina’s open seat pits Democrat Roy Cooper against Republican Michael Whatley.

俄亥俄州、阿拉斯加州和爱荷华州同样竞争激烈,而得克萨斯州和堪萨斯州也引起越来越多关注,因为民主党正在寻找更多通往多数派的路径。

Ohio, Alaska and Iowa are also competitive, while Texas and Kansas have drawn growing attention as Democrats look for more routes to a majority.

尽管民主党在参议院争取多数席位的道路比在众议院更为艰难,但竞争激烈的选区数量不断增加,已提升了他们赢得参议院控制权的几率,选举分析人士表示。关键选举议题有哪些?

Although Democrats face a more difficult path to a Senate majority than to control of the House, the growing number of competitive races has increased their chances of winning the chamber, according to election analysts. What are the key election issues?

生活成本位居选民关切之首,不断上涨的汽油价格、住房成本和医疗保障支出正在挤压家庭预算。生殖权利仍是一大议题,移民问题和美国民主现状也摆在选票上。

The cost of living tops voters’ concerns, with rising petrol prices, housing costs and healthcare coverage squeezing household budgets. Reproductive rights remain a major issue, while immigration and the state of US democracy are also on the ballot.

美国与以色列对伊朗的战争,以及人工智能(AI)和数据中心的快速增长,进一步引发了关于安全、就业和能源成本的疑问。谁参加中期选举投票?

The US-Israel war on Iran and the rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI)` and data centres have raised further questions about security, jobs and energy costs. Who votes in the midterms?

据整理政府数据的非党派组织“美国事实”(USAFacts)统计,约有2.1亿美国人登记注册投票,占美国18岁及以上居民的近八成。

About 210 million Americans are registered to vote, nearly eight in 10 US residents aged 18 or older, according to USAFacts, a nonpartisan organisation that compiles government data.

加利福尼亚州拥有最多登记选民,达2320万,其次是得克萨斯州(1740万)和佛罗里达州(1360万)。这三个州合计约占所有登记选民的26%。

California has the most registered voters, with 23.2 million, followed by Texas (17.4 million) and Florida (13.6 million). Together, they account for about 26 percent of all registered voters.

怀俄明州(278,468人)、佛蒙特州(459,455人)和阿拉斯加州(603,310人)的登记选民最少。不同群体的投票意向如何皮尤研究中心于9月28日至10月4日进行的一项调查显示,44%的登记选民支持其选区的民主党候选人,而支持共和党候选人的为36%。5%支持其他候选人,15%尚未决定。

Wyoming (278,468), Vermont (459,455) and Alaska (603,310) have the fewest. How different groups plan to vote A Pew Research Center survey conducted from September 28 to October 4 found that 44 percent of registered voters backed the Democratic candidate in their district, compared with 36 percent for the Republican. Five percent support another candidate, and 15 percent are unsure.

男性选民势均力敌,双方各获42%支持;女性选民则倾向民主党,以45%对31%领先。

Men are evenly split, with 42 percent backing each party, while women favour Democrats by 45 percent to 31 percent.

下图显示了按性别、种族、年龄、教育程度和党派归属划分的投票偏好差异。美国大选投票率参加中期选举投票的美国人比参加总统大选的要少。自1944年以来,中期选举平均投票率约为42%,而总统大选约为58%。如果共和党失去众议院控制权会怎样?

The graphic below shows how voting preferences differ by gender, race, age, education and party affiliation. US election voter turnout Fewer Americans vote in midterms than in presidential elections. Since 1944, average turnout has been about 42 percent in midterms, compared with 58 percent in presidential races. What happens if Republicans lose the House?

民主党控制的众议院可以阻挠共和党的立法,并利用其委员会调查特朗普政府。它还将拥有弹劾总统的权力,而这项权力只有众议院才能行使。

A Democratic House could block Republican legislation and use its committees to investigate the Trump administration. It would also hold the power to impeach the president, which only the House can do.

控制众议院还将让民主党在政府拨款问题上拥有筹码。每一项法案都需要两院批准,因此共和党控制的参议院无法单独通过法律。

Control would also give Democrats leverage over government funding. Every bill needs approval from both chambers, so a Republican Senate could not pass laws on its own.

贝尔特预计,民主党控制的众议院将导致围绕联邦支出的更多对抗,包括为联邦机构提供资金所需的12项年度法案。这增加了政府再次停摆的可能性——一旦资金中断,许多联邦服务就会停止。

Belt expects a Democratic-controlled House to lead to more confrontations over federal spending, including the 12 annual bills needed to fund federal agencies. That raises the possibility of further government shutdowns, when funding lapses and many federal services stop.

贝尔特还认为,如果特朗普的国内议程在国会遭遇反对,他可能会越来越多地转向外交政策。

Belt also believes that Trump could turn increasingly to foreign policy if his domestic agenda faces opposition in Congress.

“传统上,在任期最后两年面对分裂政府的总统几乎完全转向外交政策。我认为特朗普也会如此,”他说。如果共和党失去参议院会怎样?

“Traditionally, presidents facing divided government in their last two years pivot to foreign policy almost exclusively. I think the same will be true for Trump,” he said. What happens if Republicans lose the Senate?

民主党控制的参议院可以阻挠立法,并否决总统提名的候选人,包括联邦法官、最高法院大法官、内阁官员和大使。

A Democratic Senate could block legislation and reject presidential nominees, including federal judges, Supreme Court justices, cabinet officials and ambassadors.

这使得参议院的控制权影响超出未来两年。联邦法官为终身制,其裁决的影响会远远延续到总统任期结束之后。

That makes Senate control consequential beyond the next two years. Federal judges serve for life, shaping rulings long after a presidency ends.

如果众议院弹劾总统,参议院还负责进行审判。要将总统免职需要三分之二多数,而两党都不太可能达到这一门槛。赢得两院是否会让民主党获得完全控制权?

The Senate also holds the trial if the House impeaches a president. Removing a president from office requires a two-thirds majority, a threshold neither party is likely to reach. Would winning both chambers give Democrats full control?

不会。特朗普仍将是总统,可以否决立法,而推翻否决需要两院各三分之二的票数。

No. Trump would remain president and could veto legislation, and overriding a veto requires a two-thirds vote in each chamber.

参议院规则还要求,对大多数立法结束辩论需要60票,不过一些预算法案可以以简单多数通过。因此,微弱多数并不能保证一个政党能够通过其纲领。

Senate rules also require 60 votes to end debate on most legislation, though some budget bills can pass with a simple majority. A narrow majority therefore does not guarantee a party can pass its programme.

民主党主导的众议院可能对特朗普启动弹劾程序,而特朗普此前已经两次遭到弹劾。不过,要让总统下台,需要参议院三分之二多数通过。贝尔特认为再次弹劾不太可能。

A Democratic House could open impeachment proceedings against Trump, who has already been impeached twice. However, removing a president from office requires a two-thirds majority in the Senate. Belt considers another impeachment unlikely.

他告诉半岛电视台:“肯定会有调查”,但他补充说,“不太可能再有一次弹劾,因为民主党已经试过两次,而共和党人都团结在特朗普身后。”我们什么时候能知道结果?

“There will definitely be investigations,” he told Al Jazeera, but added, “There will not likely be another impeachment because Democrats tried that twice and Republicans rallied behind Trump.”

首批投票站将于11月3日美国东部时间下午6点(格林尼治时间23:00)关闭,此后结果将陆续出炉,但一些势均力敌的选战可能需要数天才能见分晓。

When will we know the results? Results will begin emerging after the first polls close at 6pm Eastern time (23:00 GMT) on November 3, but some close races could take days to resolve.

选举之夜的 results 只是初步结果。最终计票可能需要数天、有时甚至数周,因为官员要在认证结果之前清点邮寄选票、临时选票和其他未清点的选票,而且各州的计票速度不尽相同。贝尔特说:“在一些州,可能需要一周甚至更长时间。”

Election night results are preliminary. Final tallies can take days or sometimes weeks as officials count mail-in, provisional and other outstanding ballots before certifying the results, and the pace varies by state. “In some states, it may take up to a week or more,” Belt said.

一些选战可能拖得更久。在佐治亚州,如果没有参议员候选人赢得多数票,选举将于12月1日进入决选。

Some contests may go further. In Georgia, if no Senate candidate wins a majority, the race goes to a run-off election on December 1.

贝尔特警告说,早期结果可能会让人对最终结果产生误判。由于历史上共和党人比民主党人更不可能通过邮寄方式投票,一些州最初可能看起来有利于共和党候选人,但随后清点的选票会缩小或逆转他们的领先优势。这被称为“红色幻影”。而在先清点邮寄选票的州,情况可能正好相反。计票延迟或领先候选人的变化本身并不表明存在选举舞弊。

Belt warned that early results could give a misleading picture of the outcome. Because Republicans have historically been less likely than Democrats to vote by mail, some states could initially appear to favour Republican candidates before later-counted ballots narrow or reverse their leads. This is known as the “red mirage”. In states that count mail ballots first, the reverse can happen. A delay in counting or a change in which candidate is leading does not, by itself, indicate electoral fraud.

这次投票将决定由谁起草立法、监督政府和控制联邦开支,从而决定特朗普剩余任期内的权力平衡。

The vote will decide who writes legislation, scrutinises the administration and controls federal spending, setting the balance of power for the rest of Trump’s term.

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