Lily has reported on the Iran war, Latin America and domestic events. You can contact her at lily.shanagher@telegraph.co.uk or via X @lilyshanagher Updated 26 October 2026 3:55pm GMT 6:53pm BST Democrats and Republicans are set to go head-to-head on Nov 3 in elections that will determine the limits of Donald Trump’s power.

Speaking at a campaign convention on Sept 10, the US president promised to give every American adult $5,000 (£3,700) if Republicans retained control of Congress in the midterms. Critics claim it is a bribe.

The Democrats are hopeful of winning the Senate and are likely to win the House, which could significantly limit Mr Trump’s ability to force through legislation and bend a compliant Congress to his will.

This could have knock-on effects for the Iran war, funding for Israel and, as he predicted, Mr Trump’s political future. Democrat control could mean investigations into the Trump administration.

The party has pledged a 100-day agenda focused on cutting health care costs and opening corruption investigations into the Trump family.

Democrats are growing increasingly bullish about their forecast majority, and are looking at claiming victories in red states such as Texas and Iowa.

“The battle for the Senate is now a toss-up and Democrats are on the path to victory,” Chuck Schumer, the Senate minority leader, said on Aug 20.

“Republicans thought they had the Senate locked down. Instead, Democrats have blown the map wide open.”Donald Trump promised $5,000 to every American adult if Republicans retain control of Congress in November They happen two years after the election of a president, halfway through their tenure, and determine which party controls Congress.

This is important because if the president’s party does not hold majorities, it becomes very difficult to pass legislation. There are two chambers in Congress – the House of Representatives and the Senate, the lower and upper chamber respectively.

A key issue in this year’s midterms will be redistricting, with several states redrawing congressional maps to swing the balance of power in House races.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be up for re-election, while 35 out of 100 seats in the Senate are being contested, which includes two special Senate elections, in Florida and Ohio.

Each of the 50 states has two senators. Office holders are elected for six-year terms on a rolling basis, meaning that every two years, one-third of the senators come up for re-election. Representatives instead serve two-year terms, meaning they are all up for grabs. Republicans currently control the White House and have slight majorities in both the House and Senate. Having this majority has helped Mr Trump push through legislation.

Americans will vote for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives that will be up for re-election, and 35 out of 100 seats in the Senate are being contested The Iran war may be unpopular, but the Republicans have a substantial amount of money to lavish on campaigns, which could make all the difference in close races.

The closest Senate races are in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Texas.

Five of the seats which the Cook Political Report has rated as toss-ups – meaning they are going to be the most competitive races, which either party has a good chance of winning – are held by the GOP, while a further one in Michigan sees a Left-wing Democrat go up against a former Republican congressman to replace Senator Gary Peters, the retiring Democrat.

The races in many of these states have been closely watched and covered by the media, particularly the Michigan contest between Dr Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers.

Democrats are hopeful Dr El-Sayed, a progressive candidate critical of Israel, will emerge victorious.

Dr Abdul El-Sayed is the Democratic nominee in the Senate election in Michigan The Maine race also faced a lot of publicity after Democratic candidate Graham Platner dropped out following accusations of sexual assault by a former girlfriend, which he denies. Maine Democrats picked Troy Jackson as their nominee on July 25, more than three months before polling day.

Mr Trump swung his weight behind Ken Paxton at the last minute in Texas, helping him defeat Senator John Cornyn, a four-term GOP incumbent, causing a split in the Republican Party.

Mr Paxton will go up against Democrat James Talarico, who has undergone scrutiny and Republican attacks for earlier progressive statements on gender and religion made during his time in the Texas legislature. Mr Talarico, who said God was non-binary, has since walked back many of his comments.

In Republican-leaning Alaska, incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan is seeking a third term, and will go up against Mary Peltola, a former representative, who finished first in the state’s non-partisan primary on top of Mr Sullivan after firing a top aide and switching campaign managers.

If Ms Peltola were to win, it would be the first time a Democrat was elected as senator in the state since 2008.

In Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson will go up against Democrat Josh Turek to replace Senator Joni Ernst, the retiring Republican. What are the main issues for voters?

The economy remains the key issue for most voters, according to the Pew Research Center. Mr Trump’s war with Iran has pushed gas prices up and driven up the cost of food and health services, while the country’s national debt reached a record $40tn (£29.6tn) on Aug 18.

Mr Trump’s war with Iran has pushed gas prices up and driven up the cost of food and health services, while the country’s national debt reached a record $40tn His tariff policies have also been deeply unpopular and caused rifts with other countries, including Canada. This has affected the confidence of Republicans even in seats they considered safe.

According to The Economist, the most important issues for both Democrats and Republicans are inflation, jobs and healthcare.

While Mr Trump’s Republican base is very concerned with immigration, taxes and government spending, Democrats are more worried about healthcare and climate change.

Mr Trump has the lowest polls of his presidency, largely owing to the unpopularity of the Iran War Before his State of the Union address in February, 68 per cent of Americans said the system of checks and balances that divides power between the White House, Congress and the courts was not working well, a PBS News poll found.

Meanwhile, 55 per cent of Americans felt Mr Trump was changing the country for the worse through the policies he was prioritising.

According to The Economist’s tracker of YouGov polling, the US president’s net approval rating is at -23 – with around 37 per cent approving and 60 per cent disapproving – down, probably because of the Iran war. Dissatisfaction is expanding even in states that voted for him in 2024.

Analysts largely predict Democrats will gain the seats needed in the House of Representatives to outnumber Republicans.

However, the elections are unlikely to affect him that much because he does not have a legislative agenda he is trying to push through Congress, Jonathan Monten, a political science professor, told The Telegraph.

He is largely operating with executive order and the power of the presidency, with the tariff agenda and war in Iran both being conducted through presidential powers.

“If he loses a majority in Congress, he doesn’t have legislation at stake,” said Mr Monten.

“It is more about the balance of electoral power right now and whether Democrats will be able to push for accountability. They would control the budgets and Congress’s investigative control committee and start to have real levers.”Nevertheless, it would stymie the president’s ability to pass legislation such as the Save America Act to tighten voting laws, which he has said: “supersedes everything else”. What do the latest polls say? Recent polling shows the Democrats with a slight advantage.

Race to the White House, a political forecasting site, predicts Republican wins in Alaska and Iowa, while Democrats could take Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, in what would prove an upset for the GOP.

If dissatisfaction with Mr Trump and the Republican Party means the Democrats win power in either the House or Senate, then power will quickly seep away from the president.

It means those GOP contenders who hope to concede to him will have a difficult balancing act: distancing themselves from an unpopular incumbent, without provoking him into criticising them for their disloyalty. JD Vance, the US vice-president, could find that particularly hard to navigate.

JD Vance will have a difficult task navigating his relationship with Mr Trump if the Democrats win power in either the House or Senate At the same time, a Republican sweep would further embolden Mr Trump and concentrate his power as a kingmaker who can anoint a successor.

If Democrats fail to win a majority in at least one chamber of Congress in spite of Mr Trump’s dire poll ratings, it will prompt a reckoning within the party.

However, midterms do not always define the presidential election. The disaster faced by the Democrats in the 2010 midterms did not prevent Barack Obama from winning re-election in 2012, for example.

Likewise, although the Republicans’ predicted “red wave” did not materialise in 2022, Mr Trump stormed back two years later to win the presidential election and every swing state.

If they win control of the House, Democrats are planning a 100-day agenda aimed at cutting living costs and launching investigations into alleged corruption within the Trump White House.

“We need to lower the cost of groceries and gas,” said Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader who would be in line to become House Speaker if his party wins a majority.

“Two, we need to make healthcare affordable for every single American. Three, we’re going to hold the crooks accountable who’ve visited unprecedented corruption on the American people.”Democrat Hakeem Jeffries is in line to become House Speaker if his party wins a majority The plan includes reinstating healthcare tax credits that expired in 2025, leaving millions of Americans facing higher insurance bills.

It also envisages reversing Mr Trump’s tariff policies and pressuring the US president to end the war in Iran.

Mr Jeffries has instructed senior Democrats on the House Oversight and Judiciary committees to prepare corruption investigations focusing on the Trump family and his inner circle.