2026年的众议院选举格局继续向共和党的优势区域倾斜。虽然民主党人满怀雄心，但共和党方面仍坚持认为自己能够保持多数席位。
The 2026 House map continues to move further onto GOP terrain. But while Democrats are dreaming big, the GOP insists they can hold the majority.
记者与民主党全国委员会（DCCC）的副执行主任威尔·范·努伊斯（Will Van Nuys）以及共和党全国委员会（NRCC）的通讯总监威尔·凯利（Will Kiley）进行了交谈。
Score talked to the DCCC's Deputy Executive Director Will Van Nuys and the NRCC's Communications Director Will Kiley.
这两位竞选策略专家指出了四场看似不太可能获胜的选举，但他们对其中的“弱者”候选人能够实现意外逆转充满信心。如果这些选举结果发生改变，那么对他们来说将是一个非常成功的夜晚。
The two operatives chose four under-the-radar races where they’re feeling good about their underdog candidates pulling off an upset. If these races flip, they know they’re having a good night.
凯利表示：“我们并不认为这场斗争会轻松结束，但我们对自己目前的处境感到非常乐观。”
“We're not saying that this won't be a tough fight to the end, but we know we feel very good about where we stand,” Kiley said.
范·努伊斯则说：“我们的任务是尽可能多地筹集资金，以扩大我们在选举中的影响力。”
“Our job is to make sure that we raise as much as we can to expand this battlefield as far as we can,” Van Nuys said.
民主党有望赢得的四个“冷门”席位：
DEMOCRATS’ FOUR 'SLEEPER' SEATS CO-05 (Trump +9.1) Rep. Jeff Crank won this seat by 14 points in 2024 in his third bid for Congress.
- CO-05（特朗普支持率领先9.1%）：现任众议员杰夫·克兰克（Jeff Crank）在2024年以14个百分点的优势赢得了该席位，这是他第三次参选国会。不过范·努伊斯指出，由于科罗拉多斯普林斯市年轻人和西班牙裔人口的增长迅速，该选区的局势正在向民主党倾斜；再加上特朗普的不受欢迎程度，民主党人有望扭转这一局面。
But Colorado Springs is “trending Democrats’ way” with fast growth of younger and Hispanic populations. That shift, along with Trump’s unpopularity, has Democrats hoping for a flip, Van Nuys says.
- IA-02（特朗普支持率领先10%）：现任共和党众议员阿什利·欣森（Ashley Hinson）正在竞选参议员，这使得这个位于爱荷华州东北部的选区变得充满变数。由于人们对牛肉进口政策的不满、汽油价格上涨以及民主党州长候选人罗布·桑德（Rob Sand）的高支持率，民主党人希望现任州众议员林赛·詹姆斯（Lindsay James）能够赢得这个席位。
IA-02 (Trump +10) Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson’s run for Senate has left this Northeastern Iowa seat open for the taking, Van Nuys argues. Frustrations with beef imports, rising gas prices and the popularity of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand have Democrats hoping state Rep. Lindsay James can turn this seat blue.
- KY-06（特朗普支持率领先15%）：民主党州长安迪·贝希尔（Andy Beshear）将帮助他的前顾问兼联邦检察官扎克·登博（Zach Dembo）赢得参议院席位。登博在9月底发布的一项内部民调中显示自己以5个百分点的优势领先。
KY-06 (Trump +15) Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is making it his personal mission to elect his former adviser and federal prosecutor Zach Dembo and flip Senate nominee Rep. Andy Barr’s Lexington-based seat. Dembo released an internal poll in late September showing him with a five-point lead.
- WI-01（特朗普支持率领先4.5%）：范·努伊斯认为，这位在急诊室工作的护士米切尔·伯曼（Mitchell Berman）与现任共和党众议员布莱恩·斯泰尔（Bryan Steil）形成了鲜明对比——斯泰尔是一名律师，曾担任塑料制造企业的高管。在这个以蓝领选民为主的选区，米切尔·伯曼有望击败布莱恩·斯泰尔。
WI-01 (Trump +4.5) Van Nuys says emergency room nurse Mitchell Berman is a “perfect contrast” in the blue-collar district to Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, an attorney and former plastics manufacturing executive. NM-02 (Trump +1.8) Former Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell ran four cycles in a row.
总之，尽管选举竞争依然激烈，但民主党人对自己在多个选区实现逆转的可能性感到乐观。
Now the GOP is betting on a fresh face: Greg Cunningham, a tattooed, motorcycle-driving Marine vet and ex-cop who’s running ads highlighting his Hispanic heritage in the Latino-heavy district.
关键信息：
Republicans are spending big on the race.
NM-02（特朗普支持率：+1.8%）前共和党众议员伊薇特·赫雷尔连续四次参选。如今，共和党寄希望于一位新面孔——格雷格·坎宁安：这位身有纹身、喜欢骑摩托车的海军陆战队退伍军人兼前警察，在以拉丁裔选民为主的选区通过广告强调自己的西班牙裔血统来争取支持。共和党在这场竞选中投入了大量资金。
Kiley called Cunningham a “badass.”“Greg is a candidate who can continue to capture those voters and keep them coming our way,” he said. NY-03 (Trump +4.3) Republican former state Assemblymember Mike LiPetri came within four points of defeating Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) in 2024, and Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman coasted to reelection last fall. Now Blakeman is running for governor, and Kiley says the statewide campaign can push LiPetri over the top in a rematch.
凯利称坎宁安为“非常出色的候选人”：“他有能力继续吸引那些选民，并让他们继续支持我们。”
The MAGA Inc.-affiliated No Going Back PAC has dropped a whopping $6 million into the district, with $2 million more from NRCC, though the CLF trimmed its own ad buy there on Tuesday.
NY-03（特朗普支持率：+4.3%）前共和党州议员迈克·利佩特里在2024年曾以微弱差距（仅差4个百分点）击败民主党众议员汤姆·苏奥齐；去年秋天，共和党籍的纳索县县长布鲁斯·布莱克曼轻松连任。如今布莱克曼正在竞选州长，凯利认为这次全州范围的竞选活动将有助于利佩特里在重赛中获胜。
“Last cycle, LiPetri came incredibly close with minimal to no outside investment,” Kiley said. “Now he has the investment and institutional support to get the job done.”
与“MAGA”运动相关的“No Going Back”政治行动委员会已向该选区投入了600万美元，全国共和党委员会（NRCC）也追加了200万美元；不过“CLF”组织周二减少了在该选区的广告支出。
AZ-01 (Trump +3.1) The DCCC’s preferred candidate lost to former Democratic state Rep. Amish Shah in the primary in this Phoenix and Scottsdale-area seat, and Kiley says that’s opened the door for the GOP to hold the seat.
凯利指出：“上一轮选举中，利佩里在几乎没有外部资金支持的情况下几乎赢得了胜利；如今他拥有了足够的资金和机构支持来赢得选举。”
“The DCCC is lying if they said that Amish is the candidate they wanted,” Kiley said.
AZ-01（特朗普支持率：+3.1%）民主党全国委员会（DCCC）原本看好的候选人在这次初选中败给了前民主党州议员阿米什·沙阿；凯利认为这为共和党赢得了夺回该选区的机会。
Republicans nominated former Arizona Cardinals kicker and NFL commentator Jay Feely, and Kiley says Feely’s unique resume will boost him over the edge.
凯利表示：“如果DCCC声称阿米什是他们心仪的候选人，那他们就是在撒谎。”
Both parties are spending huge sums, with more than $31 million combined earmarked for the race.
共和党提名了前亚利桑那红雀队踢球手兼NFL评论员杰伊·菲利参选；凯利认为菲利的独特背景将帮助他脱颖而出。两党都投入了大量资金，总计超过3100万美元用于这场竞选。
NV-03 (Trump +0.7) Republican Marty O’Donnell was the composer for the music in the popular video game Halo. He’s using that success to pour $3 million into his bid to flip this Las Vegas-area seat held by Democratic Rep. Susie Lee.
NV-03（特朗普支持率：+0.7%共和党人马蒂·奥唐奈曾是热门游戏《Halo》的音乐制作人；他正利用这一成功为竞选投入300万美元，试图从民主党众议员苏西·李手中夺回拉斯维加斯地区的这个选区。
The personal investments, along with outside GOP spending, eliminate a cash advantage past Democrats enjoyed in the district, Kiley said.
凯利表示，这些个人投资以及共和党方面的外部资金投入，已经消除了该选区过去民主党所拥有的资金优势。
“The resources are coming in to flip this seat because the GOP ecosystem can see how big of an opportunity it is,” he said.
“这些资源正在被投入到争取该选区控制权的行动中，因为共和党的整个体系都意识到了这是一个巨大的机会，”他说。
A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score.
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