中期选举投票才刚刚开始，但事后分析已经铺天盖地。首先，民主党和媒体正急于宣称，共和党2025至2026年的选区重划努力已经失败。但这不过是为稻草人写的讣告。
Midterms voting has only begun, but already we’re getting postmortems. For one, Democrats and the media are rushing to pronounce the Republican gerrymander effort of 2025-26 a failure. But this is an obituary for a straw man.
“共和党重划选区的冒险举措如何挫败，”路透社写道。共和党可能在佛罗里达州“失手”，那里的选区重划并不“按计划进行”，Punchbowl嘲讽道。美联社表示，共和党从选区重划中获得的“微小优势”正被“全国政治环境”所抵消。
“How the Republican redistricting gambit faltered,” wrote Reuters. The GOP could “whiff” in Florida, where its redistricting is not “going as planned,” jeered Punchbowl. The Republicans’ “small advantage” from redistricting is being undone by the “national political environment,” says the Associated Press.
急于将共和党选区操纵定性为失败，这并不奇怪。左翼仍然对最高法院终止《投票权法案》中种族的滥用感到愤怒——这剥夺了民主党的一项选区重划优势。他们继续对共和党敢于像民主党在蓝州所做的那样，在红州积极进行选区操纵表示震惊。他们仍然对民主党在应对右翼地图策略方面力不从心感到不满，只有加利福尼亚州和犹他州调整了选区边界。其目的是污名化整个项目，并施压共和党不要重蹈覆辙。
The eagerness to tag the GOP gerrymander a failure is no surprise. The left remains furious that the Supreme Court ended the misuse of race in the Voting Rights Act—depriving Democrats of one redistricting advantage. It continues to act appalled that Republicans dared to gerrymander red states as aggressively as Democrats had already gerrymandered blue ones. It’s still sour that Democrats fell short in countering the right’s map strategy, with only California ad Utah shifting their lines. The goal is to taint the entire project and pressure the GOP out of a repeat.
然而，要将此归类为失败，唯一的方式是不诚实地定义什么算作成功。共和党会夺下他们划出的每一个新选区吗？不会。共和党选区操纵能让众议院继续由共和党掌控吗？可能不能。但在共和党最糟糕的政治环境中，这些选区地图的变化正在让民主党的处境更加艰难，并使共和党免受更沉重的打击。
Yet the only way to classify this a failure is to define disingenuously what counts as success. Are Republicans going to capture every new district they carved out? No. Is the GOP gerrymander going to keep the House in Republican hands? Likely not. But in this most dreadful of Republican political environments, these changes in the map are making things much harder for Democrats and insulating Republicans from a bigger hammering.
看看直截了当的选区划分数字。共和党今年为争夺机会创建的15个席位中，库克政治报告目前将其中12个评为“稳固共和党”、“可能共和党”、“倾向共和党”或“悬而未决”。共和党在南部的三个州（阿拉巴马州、路易斯安那州和田纳西州）几乎已稳拿三个席位，并在佛罗里达州和得克萨斯州有三个更多席位的良好前景。此外，它还在得克萨斯州、佛罗里达州、俄亥俄州和北卡罗来纳州的六个额外选区中为自己争取到了胜算。
Consider the straight gerrymander numbers. Of the 15 seats Republicans created for pickup opportunities this year, the Cook Political Report currently rates 12 of them either “solid R,” “likely R,” “lean R” or “toss up.”The GOP has all but locked in three seats in the South (Alabama, Louisiana and Tennessee), with good prospects for three more in Florida and Texas. And it’s given itself a fighting chance in six additional districts in Texas, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina.
将此与库克报告评为“稳固民主党”、“倾向民主党”或“悬而未决”的六个共和党席位相比，民主党希望在加利福尼亚州和犹他州夺取这些席位。即使在部分竞争性选区划分相互抵消之后，共和党仍拥有原本不会有的争夺机会。想象一下没有这些机会的选举地图。
Compare this with the six Republican seats the Cook report rates as “solid D,” “lean D” or “toss up” that Democrats hope to capture in California and Utah. Even after some of the rival gerrymandering cancels itself out, the GOP is still left with pickup opportunities it wouldn’t otherwise have had. Imagine the map without them.
同样大的——如果不那么引人注意——好处是，迫使民主党在新领域打艰苦仗，使他们不得不在现任议员身上投入巨额资金，而不是进一步扩大选举地图。一个例子：民主党正在花费数百万美元来捍卫北卡罗来纳州第一国会选区的众议员唐·戴维斯，该选区被共和党重新设计，使特朗普的优势从3个百分点扩大到12个百分点。尽管投入了所有资金，该选区仍然是悬而未决。而这发生在民主党筹款困难的一年。
The equally large—if less noticed—benefit has been drawing Democrats into tough races in new territory, forcing them to invest huge amounts in incumbents rather than expand the map even further. One example: Democrats are spending millions to defend Rep. Don Davis in North Carolina’s First Congressional District, which Republicans re-engineered to a 12-point Trump advantage from a 3-point edge. Despite all the cash, the district remains a toss-up. And this is happening in a year when Democrats are struggling to raise funds.
2018年，共和党不得不在希拉里·克林顿两年前赢得的23个选区以及特朗普未能达到50%的42个选区中参选。民主党在净增40个席位的浪潮中翻转了其中32个席位。今年，有23名民主党人正在特朗普2024年赢得的选区参选，但只有八名共和党人正在卡玛拉·哈里斯的选区参选。如果共和党能够将损失控制在与2018年相比的较低水平，这将是一个重要原因。
In 2018 Republicans had to run in 23 districts that Hillary Clinton had won two years earlier, and 42 where Donald Trump failed to hit 50%. Democrats flipped 32 of those seats amid a net gain of 40. This year, 23 Democrats are running in districts Mr. Trump won in 2024, but only eight Republicans are running in Kamala Harris locales. If Republicans manage to limit losses compared with 2018, this will be a big reason.
最坏的情况也并未出现——至少目前尚未出现。有人曾警告说，共和党通过削减安全席位的优势，可能会让本党的现任议员面临风险。唯一看起来可能出现这种情况的选区是得克萨斯州第15选区，众议员莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹正与歌手鲍比·普利多进行一场艰苦的竞选。问题在那里并不在于选区的党派构成发生了变化（该选区基本保持不变），而在于这位共和党人被分配了一个显著不同的新选民群体，其中许多是不满的西班牙裔选民，他们不把她视为自己的现任议员。
The worst-case scenario also hasn’t materialized—at least not yet. Some warned that the GOP, by thinning out its margins in safe seats, risked putting its own incumbents at risk. The only district where that seems likely is Texas’ 15th, where Rep. Monica De La Cruz is in a tough race with singer Bobby Pulido. The issue there isn’t a change in the partisan makeup of the district (which largely remained the same), so much as that the Republican was handed a significantly new constituency, many of them disaffected Hispanic voters who don’t view her as their incumbent.
这并非要暗示选区划分之争对政治体有益。它们打破规范，引发无休止的诉讼，并促使政治家花更多时间在选区划分上，而不是在政策上。但媒体通过散布经不起基本审查的说法，对任何人都没有好处。
None of this is to suggest the gerrymander wars are good for the body politic. They break norms, provoke endless litigation, and inspire politicians to invest more time in line drawing than in policy. But the media does nobody any favors by spinning claims that don’t hold up to basic scrutiny.
共和党人心知肚明。他们的选区划分努力使该党在这次中期选举中表现得比原本可能更好。而且不仅仅是这次选举。他们已经在展望未来，等待更有利的政治环境，以便利用这些重新划定的选区。民主党人也知道这一点。
Republicans know the bottom line. Their gerrymandering efforts have positioned the party to do better in these midterms than it would have otherwise. And not just this election. They are already looking ahead to when a more favorable political environment allows them to capitalize on these redrawn seats. Democrats know it too.
所以，不要惊讶于——尽管媒体声称共和党失败——两党在中期选举结束后，将立即投入另一轮选区划分军备竞赛，以备2028年总统大选。在科罗拉多州、佐治亚州、印第安纳州、堪萨斯州、马里兰州、密苏里州、新泽西州、纽约州和南卡罗来纳州，仅举几例。这次中期选举反而可能促使政治阶层加倍投入中期选区划分，将其巩固为像筹款一样的核心关注点。
So don’t be surprised when—media claims of a GOP fail notwithstanding—both parties come out of the midterms to rush straight back into another redistricting arms race before the 2028 presidential election. In Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Maryland, Missouri, New Jersey, New York and South Carolina, to suggest a few. This midterm if anything will inspire the political class to double down on midcycle redistricting, to cement it as a central preoccupation like fundraising.
选区划分之争将继续下去。直到选民说“够了。”写信至kim@wsj.com。
The gerrymandering wars will continue. Until the voters say “enough.”Write to kim@wsj.com.
[视频] WSJ Opinion：米歇尔·塔福亚能否帮助共和党赢得明尼苏达州参议院席位？
[video] WSJ Opinion: Can Michele Tafoya Win the GOP a Minnesota Senate Seat?