文/爱丽丝·阿特金斯 美国债券收益率从2002年以来的最高水平回落，因油价跌破每桶100美元，且财政部长斯科特·贝森特坚称政府债务负担可得到控制。
US bond yields fell from their highest levels since 2002 as oil prices retreated below $100 a barrel and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insisted the government’s debt load can be tamed.
这标志着全球债券抛售潮暂时停歇，此前抛售由美伊战争引发的通胀担忧，以及美国经济数据强劲导致市场押注美联储将更激进地收紧政策所驱动。
It marked a pause in the global bond rout that’s been driven by inflationary fears from the US-Iran war as well as bets on more aggressive tightening from the Federal Reserve as US economic data comes in strong.
贝森特试图让投资者放心，经济增长与支出限制的组合将“非常快”地开始改变美国政府借贷的轨迹。他在周一晚于宾夕法尼亚州的一场炉边谈话中表示，政府将开始“使曲线弯曲”。10年期和30年期美债收益率分别下跌3个和4个基点，至5.27%和5.63%，而2年期收益率变化不大。周二原油价格回落，迹象显示更多供应通过霍尔木兹海峡。
Bessent tried to reassure investors that a mix of economic growth and spending restraints will “very quickly” start to alter the path of US government borrowing. Speaking at a fireside chat in Pennsylvania on Monday night, he said the government would start “bending that curve.”Treasury 10 and 30-year yields fell by three and four basis points to 5.27% and 5.63%, respectively, while those on the two-year were little changed. Crude prices retreated on Tuesday on signs more supplies were getting through the Strait of Hormuz.
尽管如此，投资者对贝森特的言论持谨慎态度，不愿宣称抛售结束。
Still, investors greeted Bessent’s comments with caution and were reluctant to call an end to the selloff.
“市场极可能持怀疑态度，鉴于赤字率达6%且无削减计划，”麦格理策略师加雷斯·贝里表示。“表态的雄心不是计划。”施罗德基金经理詹姆斯·林格表示，他关注的不止是原油价格表面数字。
“The market is likely to be very skeptical, given the deficit is 6% and there is no plan to reduce it,” said Gareth Berry, a strategist at Macquarie. “A stated ambition is not a plan.”James Ringer, a fund manager at Schroders, said he’s looking beyond the headline crude oil price.
“要看到全曲线有意义的反弹，首要条件是能源价格开始下跌，”他说。“那不仅是原油，还必须包括成品油。”另外，桥水基金创始人雷·达利欧警告，美国正逼近债务周期极限，若支出持续超过收入，可能在三年内面临危机。
“To see a meaningful rally across the curve, the number one thing you need to see is energy prices starting to decline,” he said. “That’s not just crude, that’s got to be the refined products as well.”Separately, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned that the US is approaching the limits of its debt cycle and potentially faces a crisis within three years if spending continues to outpace revenue.
他表示，美国国债易受中国和日本——美国最大的两个外国债权国——需求回撤的冲击。
Treasuries are vulnerable to a pullback of demand from China and Japan, two of the US’s largest foreign creditors, he said.
虽然汇丰控股的策略师们认为市场对2027年美联储加息约80个基点的预期“有些过度”，但他们仍坚持押注5年期与30年期美国国债收益率之间的利差将会进一步扩大。
While HSBC Holdings Plc strategists called bets for around 80 basis points of Fed hikes in 2027 “excessive,” they’re sticking with a wager on the gap between five- and 30-year Treasury yields moving wider.
“在我们看来，市场波动性的急剧上升，加之近期历史数据中并未出现明显的技术阻力位，导致许多投资者即便看到长期利率处于高位这一看似有利的投资机会，也选择观望观望，”汇丰银行美国利率策略师迪拉杰·纳鲁拉在报告中写道。
“The surge in volatility, coupled with a lack of any clear technical resistance at these levels from recent history has, in our view, kept many investors on the sidelines despite the growing optical appeal of elevated long-end rates,” Dhiraj Narula, US rates strategist at HSBC, wrote in a note.