本周收盘时，美国国债价格下跌，因为仍然高企的能源成本加剧了人们对通胀的担忧，并支撑了美联储将进一步加息的预期。
Treasuries slipped at the end of the week as still-elevated energy costs stoked concern about inflation and backed expectations for further Federal Reserve interest-rate increases.
本周强劲的发债拍卖引发了市场反弹，但随后国债价格下跌，使各期限收益率更接近近期的峰值。对美联储政策路径最为敏感的两年期国债收益率周五上升了4个基点至4.79%，而十年期国债收益率则升至5.24%。
The declines pushed yields across maturities closer to their recent peaks after strong auctions this week spurred a relief rally. Two-year yields — which are most sensitive to the Fed’s path — rose four basis points to 4.79% on Friday, while 10-year yields were up to 5.24%.
“市场正在消化这一波波动极大的行情，”Wellington Management投资组合经理Brij Khurana表示。由于收益率尚未回到近期高点，“价格往往会在朝某个方向进一步变动之前先趋于稳定。”几周以来，投资者一直在抛售全球长期债券，因为伊朗战争引发的通胀上升担忧，促使市场押注各大央行将转向鹰派立场。对财政赤字不断膨胀的担忧也加剧了市场看跌情绪，本周早些时候，30年期国债收益率一度升至2002年以来未见水平。
“The market is digesting a very volatile week,” said Brij Khurana, portfolio manager at Wellington Management. With yields lingering off their recent peaks, “prices tend to stabilize before moving one way or the other.”Investors have been selling global long-dated debt for weeks as concern tied to rising inflation from the war in Iran has prompted bets on a hawkish turn by major central banks. Worries over ballooning deficits have added to the bearish sentiment, sending 30-year Treasury yields earlier this week to levels unseen since 2002.
不过，周四十年期和三十年期国债拍卖受到投资者强劲需求支撑，收益率随之下降。布伦特原油价格围绕每桶104美元波动，此前因美国总统唐纳德·特朗普承诺在期中选举前不再对伊朗发动进一步攻击而一度上涨。
Yields declined on Thursday, however, as auctions of 10- and 30-year Treasuries were met with strong demand from investors. Brent crude fluctuated around $104 a barrel, stalling after a rally tied to President Donald Trump’s vow to hold off on further attacking Iran until after the US midterms.
ING Groep NV美洲区研究主管Padhraic Garvey认为，目前断言收益率上涨趋势结束还为时过早。
To Padhraic Garvey, head of research for the Americas at ING Groep NV, it’s too early to call the end of the yield surge.
他表示：“当前市场更倾向于寻找卖出的理由，而非买入的理由。目前尚不足以确认收益率会迎来大规模买盘。”即将于周三发布的美国通胀报告，将为投资者提供有关美联储政策路径的下一个关键线索。美联储上个月自2023年以来首次加息，但交易员预计10月再次加息的可能性仅为20%。而12月会议加息则已被市场完全计入价格。
“This marketplace is looking for an excuse to sell as opposed to buy,” he said. “It doesn’t feel just yet that we have enough validation here for yields to get aggressively bought.”The upcoming US inflation report on Wednesday stands to offer investors the next major clues on the Fed’s path. The central bank boosted rates for the first time since 2023 last month, though traders are pricing in just a 20% chance of another move in October. A hike is fully priced in for the December gathering.
“我担心的是下周的情况，”Bannockburn首席市场策略师Marc Chandler表示，“强劲的核心CPI数据可能会提升市场对美联储政策的预期，进而可能推高长期利率。”美国现金债券市场将于周一因节假日休市。
“My concern is next week,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn. “A firm CPI reading will likely lift expectations for Fed policy, which in turn could lift long-term rates.”US cash bond markets will be closed Monday for a holiday.