周四，受人工智能增长放缓的担忧以及投资者押注美联储下次会议将维持利率不变的影响，美国长期国债收益率跌至自9月以来的最低水平。
Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels since September on Thursday on concerns about slowing AI growth and bets the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its next meeting.
在零售销售和批发通胀数据高于预期之后，收益率曾短暂回升，但随后重新开始下跌，这一下跌趋势始于亚洲交易时段。基准10年期和30年期国债收益率跌至自9月23日以来的最低水平。
After hotter-than-expected retail sales and wholesale inflation data, yields pared declines briefly before resuming a drop that started during Asian trading hours, with benchmark 10-year and 30-year yields hitting their lowest levels since September 23.
9月美国零售销售因汽油价格上涨而超预期增长，但其他领域的支出温和，可能会削弱对另一个季度消费者支出强劲增长的预期。
September's U.S. retail sales increased more than expected due to higher gasoline prices, but spending elsewhere was moderate, potentially tempering expectations for another quarter of robust consumer spending growth.
9月美国生产者价格涨幅达4年半以来最大，商品和服务成本上升，这是最新迹象表明，高企的通胀正在超出能源产品范围扩大。
U.S. producer prices increased by the most in 4-1/2 years in September amid rising costs for goods and services in the latest indication that elevated inflation is broadening out beyond energy products.
但施瓦布金融研究中心固定收益研究与策略主管科林·马丁指出，尽管生产者价格报告显示航空公司价格上涨，但医疗保健数据疲软。马丁还指出，美联储官员的信号表明，美联储并不急于加息。
But Collin Martin, head of fixed-income research and strategy at Schwab Center for Financial Research, noted that while airline prices rose, healthcare numbers were soft in the producer prices report. Martin also pointed to signals from Fed officials that the central bank is in no rush to raise rates.
“无论是零售销售还是生产者价格指数，头条数据都非常强劲。你会看到收益率最初出现上涨，因为如果你只是快速看一眼，数据看起来非常强劲，但如果你深入表面之下，它们可能不如头条数据所暗示的那样强劲或具有通胀性，”马丁说。
"The headline numbers were very strong, whether it was retail sales or PPI. You saw this initial move up in yields because if you just looked quickly, the numbers looked very strong, but if you look under the surface they might not be as strong or inflationary as the headline might suggest," Martin said.
“尽管通胀仍然高企，但风险在于它从长远来看可能对增长不利，而人工智能担忧以及股市疲软的潜在可能性，支持了避险资金涌入的论点，”马丁补充道。
"Even though inflation is still elevated, the risk is that it can be detrimental to growth in the long term and AI concerns and the potential for stock market weakness supports the case for a flight to quality," Martin added.
美国国债需求的激增与技术股早前的下跌同时发生，因为投资者抛售负债累累的人工智能股票，这些股票近年来对股市增长贡献颇大。
The jump in demand for U.S. Treasuries coincided with earlier declines in technology stocks as investors fled from heavily indebted AI stocks, which have been responsible for much of the stock market's growth in recent years.
与此同时，旧金山联邦储备银行行长玛丽·戴利是最新一位主张暂停加息的官员。戴利周三晚间表示，美联储可能仍需要进一步提高短期利率以遏制过高的通胀，但她暗示在美联储10月27日至28日的会议上没有必要这样做。
Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly was the latest official to advocate for a pause in rate hikes. Daly said late on Wednesday that the Fed will probably need to increase short-term interest rates further to rein in too-high inflation, but she signaled there is no need to do so at the U.S. central bank's October 27-28 meeting.
根据LSEG的数据，交易员此前押注美联储在10月会议上维持利率不变的概率约为73%，而他们认为12月加息的概率接近91%。
Traders were last betting on a roughly 73% probability that the Fed will keep rates steady at the October meeting while they see a nearly 91% chance of a hike in December, according to data from LSEG.
基准美国10年期国债收益率在触及自9月23日以来的最低水平后下降10.1个基点至5.089%。该收益率有望创下自2025年8月初以来的最大单日跌幅，以及自2025年9月初以来的最大三日跌幅。
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note fell 10.1 basis points to 5.089% after hitting its lowest level since September 23. The benchmark yield was on track for its biggest daily decline since early August 2025 and its deepest three-day drop since early September 2025.
30年期国债收益率下降9.8个基点至5.426%。在触及自9月23日以来的最低水平后，30年期收益率有望创下自2025年10月10日以来的最大单日跌幅，并有望实现自去年9月初以来的最大五日跌幅。
The yield on the 30-year bond fell 9.8 basis points to 5.426%. After touching its lowest level since September 23, the 30-year yield was eying its biggest one-day drop since October 10, 2025, and was on track for its biggest five-day decline since early September last year.
两年期美国国债收益率通常会随着对美联储利率预期的变化而同步变动，下降5.3个基点至4.749%。在触及自9月18日以来的最低水平后，该短期收益率有望创下自10月1日以来的最大单日跌幅。
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, fell 5.3 basis points to 4.749%. After hitting its lowest level since September 18, the short-dated yield was eyeing its biggest one-day drop since October 1.
一些投资者希望能从美联储主席凯文·沃什在周五上午于曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织年会上的言论中获取政策线索。施瓦布的马丁并不期待此次亮相能带来太多新指引。
Some investors are hoping for Fed policy clues from comments from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh at the International Monetary Fund Annual Meetings on Friday morning in Bangkok. Schwab's Martin is not expecting much new guidance from the appearance.
“他发表讲话时非常谨慎，言辞含蓄。他不想说太多，我也不期待今晚会有改变，”马丁说。
"He's very tight-lipped when he gives his speeches. He's coy. He doesn't want to say too much and I don't expect that to change tonight," Martin said.
美国国债收益率曲线中备受关注的部分——衡量两年期和10年期国债收益率差距的指标，被视为经济预期的晴雨表——目前为正值33.8个基点。
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a positive 33.8 basis points.
10年期通胀保值国债（TIPS）盈亏平衡利率最新为2.336%，表明市场预计未来十年通胀年均约为2.3%。
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.336%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.3% a year for the next decade.