Nazi symbols, sexual assault allegations and months of internal Democratic conflict have churned through the US Senate race in Maine. But with the election four weeks away, it’s the explosion in housing costs and record-breaking heating bills that Mainers can’t stop talking about.

Democrat Troy Jackson, a fifth-generation logger and former state Senate president, will face off against Republican incumbent Susan Collins on Tuesday evening in the first debate of a volatile and closely-watched race that’s crucial to either party’s hopes of claiming a Senate majority. Top of mind are the state’s rising costs, which stick out even in a midterm season dominated by affordability concerns.

Since 2021, home prices in Maine have jumped more than in all but three states, pressured by an influx of residents drawn to a laid-back lifestyle and ample coastline.

And just as nighttime temperatures in much of Maine fall to near freezing, it has never cost more to keep those homes warm since heating oil recently rose to a record. The fuel now averages $5.96 a gallon, up about 80% from last year, amid a broad increase in prices stoked by the war in Iran. That implies a cost of around $1,500 to fill up a standard residential tank that typically will have to be replenished a few times to make it through the winter.

Mainers are split on which candidate is better on cost-of-living issues, with each garnering 47%, according to a New York Times and Siena University poll last month. Just 25% of respondents approved of Trump’s performance on that front.

The same survey put Collins up by 3 points over Jackson among likely voters in the general election, though other recent polls give him a slight edge.

Collins, 73, has repeatedly defied expectations and outperformed polls in her nearly 30 years as senator. But the voting base has shifted meaningfully since she last won reelection.

In the five years ending June 2025, Maine posted a net gain of almost 55,000 people moving to the state from other parts of the US. On a per-capita basis, that amounted to one of the nation’s largest increases. Maine’s population is about 1.4 million.

A rising population means more demand for housing. Rent growth in metro Portland is now more than double the national average, according to CoStar Group Inc.

Steve Brown, 35, vice president of partnerships for the city’s minor-league soccer team and owner of a sports memorabilia store, said he pays $3,600 a month for a one-bedroom apartment downtown. That’s “way more” than his rent in Atlanta a few years ago, he said. He’s leaning toward Collins but said he hasn’t paid much attention to the race.

No part of the state has been spared from cost pressures. Indeed, home prices in some of Maine’s least populated counties have climbed at a faster clip than in the county that includes Portland, according to Maine Association of Realtors data.

In Aroostook County, where both Collins and Jackson grew up, the median sale price reached almost $180,000 this spring, up more than 50% since 2021. Homeowners searching the market are suffering sticker shock, said Lehrle Kieffer, a real estate agent in Caribou.

Jackson, 58, with his thick northern Maine accent and ever-present Boston Red Sox cap, has been playing up his working-class background with voters.

Growing up in Allagash, a town on the Canadian border with about 200 people, Jackson rode the bus to kindergarten with his mother, who returned to high school after giving birth at 16. After following his father into logging, Jackson went on to become one of labor’s biggest champions as a state legislator, helping to enact policies on paid family and medical leave as well as free breakfast and lunch in public schools.

He’s seeking to tie Collins to unpopular Trump policies such as tariffs, the Iran war and Medicaid cuts. Jackson says she bears responsibility for the Republican agenda as the Senate appropriations chair, a powerful post she often trumpets as a benefit to Maine.

“It’s about prioritizing what we do in this country,” Jackson said at a campaign event in Portland in late September. “We don’t have to be giving tax cuts. We don’t have to be fighting more wars. We certainly don’t have to be putting money into ICE and these tariffs.”Jackson has also slammed Collins for a ProPublica report in September that alleged that she received campaign funds in exchange for steering contracts to a defense company. Collins has denied the alleged bribery took place.

Her backers highlight her bipartisan credentials, arguing she’s pushed back against Trump’s tariffs on Canada, an important economic partner for Maine, and urged the administration to release heating assistance funds.

She was one of only three Senate Republicans to vote against last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which included Medicaid cuts, though she supported a procedural move that enabled the measure to advance. More recently, she sided with Democrats to support a resolution limiting Trump’s war powers in Iran. The measure failed to pass.

In a statement, Collins pointed to the earmarks she’s brought home to Maine as helping to make the state more affordable.

“They help communities address critical needs without raising property taxes, which means real savings for the people who live there,” she said.

Powered by a $37 million spending advantage as tallied by AdImpact, Collins and an affiliated political action committee are inundating airwaves with spots slamming the Democrat for raising costs including property taxes while he was in the Senate. Jackson’s campaign counters that he helped shepherd through property-tax relief for seniors and others.

Perry, the convenience store employee, said her new two-bedroom unit in Augusta costs $1,250 a month. At a salary just over $20 per hour, even that will be tough given the prices of groceries and gasoline, she said. While she doesn’t know much about Jackson, she said it’s time for Collins to leave office, arguing she could have done more to stop investors from buying up homes to rent out to Maine’s many vacationers.

“Somebody in Congress should be making sure people are being held accountable for that,” Perry said. “At the end of the day, you’re screwing the hardworking Maine people.”For other Mainers, the Collins ads attacking Jackson’s own voting record are striking a chord.

“I’m not really particularly thrilled with Susan Collins, but Troy Jackson raised taxes for everything, and now he’s like, ‘Oh, the state’s unaffordable,’” said William Bradford, 62, a resident of Saco, a city between Portland and Kennebunkport. “It’s like, dude, you were the people in power and you raised all the taxes!”