
受企业利润弹性和油价回落的提振,纳塔利娅·扎热维奇(Natalia Ottazhevich)和简·帕特里克·巴纳特(Jan-Patrick Barnert)的标准普尔500指数期货上涨0.5%,有望收于两个月来的首次历史新高。
S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, on track to close at the first record high in two months, buoyed by resilient corporate profits and a pullback in oil prices.
随着投资者摆脱了挥之不去的通胀担忧,该指数有望连续第四次上涨,也是大约两个月来最长的上涨周期。截至上午8:10,纳斯达克100指数合约上涨0.8%强劲的企业盈利、对人工智能贸易的热情以及迄今为止避免大幅放缓的美国经济,推动标准普尔500指数今年上涨约14%。油价下跌得到了额外的支持,这有助于缓解对消费者成本上升的担忧。
The gauge is poised for a fourth consecutive advance and its longest winning run in about two months as investors looked past lingering inflation concerns. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.8% as of 8:10 a.m. Strong corporate earnings, enthusiasm around the artificial intelligence trade and a US economy that has so far avoided a significant slowdown have fueled a roughly 14% advance in the S&P 500 this year.
22 V Research董事凯文·布洛克斯(Kevin Brocks)表示:“只要我们从盈利和Anthropic未来几周IPO申请中获得的人工智能投资回报率增量信息良好,该指数的风险就很小。”“最近的宏观数据表明,经济衰退的风险很小,美联储需要收紧金融条件的风险也不大。”纳斯达克100指数期货的头寸也大幅改善。花旗集团策略师表示,随着新的冒险资金进入市场,该以科技股为主的指数公布了主要市场中最强劲的单周头寸改善。势头越来越青睐纳斯达克100指数期货的多头头寸。
The rally is getting additional support from lower oil prices, which have helped temper concerns about rising consumer costs. “As long as the incremental info on AI ROI we get from earnings and Anthropic’s IPO filing over the next few weeks is good, there is little risk to the index,” said Kevin Brocks, director at 22V Research. “The recent macro data indicates there’s very little risk of recession, and not a large risk of the Fed needing to tighten financial conditions from here.”Positioning in Nasdaq 100 futures has also improved sharply. Citigroup Inc. strategists said the technology-heavy index posted the strongest weekly improvement in positioning among major markets as fresh risk-taking flows entered the market.
在美国股市的其他地方,情况则更加复杂。以David Chew为首的策略师表示,投资者继续在Russell 2000期货建立空头头寸,对小盘股的看法越来越悲观。
Momentum has increasingly favored long positions in Nasdaq 100 futures. Elsewhere in US equities, the picture is more mixed.
期货风险的大幅减少也令人担忧。根据对CFTC数据的分析,非交易商在过去六周内售出了近700亿美元的标准普尔500指数期货,这是大约15年来最大规模的平仓之一。
Strategists led by David Chew said investors are growing increasingly bearish on small caps by continuing to build short positions in Russell 2000 futures. A major reduction in futures exposure is also worrying.
此次抛售的规模可与2020年和2022年等重大市场转向时期相提并论。但与那些时期不同,市场几乎未出现明显波动:标准普尔500指数在六周内基本没有变化。
Non-dealers have sold almost $70 billion of S&P 500 futures over the past six weeks, according to an analysis of CFTC data, marking one of the largest positioning unwinds in roughly 15 years. The scale of the selling is comparable with major positioning reversals seen in periods such as 2020 and 2022.
今年,半导体股在强劲的基本面和积极的技术信号支撑下,引领了更广泛的市场。该板块的估值也仍低于历史平均水平。分析师预计所有科技行业都将实现盈利增长,尽管六个子行业中四个的增长速度预计将较上年放缓。总体而言,盈利前景仍对这一领域构成支撑。
But unlike those episodes, the market has barely moved: The S&P 500 is little changed over the six-week period. Semiconductor stocks have led the broader market this year, supported by solid fundamentals and favorable technical signals. Valuations for the group also remain below historical averages. Analysts expect earnings growth across all technology industries, although four of the six groups are projected to see growth slow from the previous year.
与此同时,随着投资者重新关注这家AI芯片制造商,英伟达公司的市值正逼近6万亿美元。其股价今年已上涨28%,为英伟达的市值增加了约1.2万亿美元,使其成为推动标普500指数上涨的最大单一贡献者。
Overall, the earnings backdrop remains supportive for the sector. Nvidia Corp. is meanwhile approaching a $6 trillion market value as investors return to the AI chipmaker.
近期推动AI板块上涨的催化剂来自超微半导体公司(AMD)首席执行官苏姿丰(Lisa Su),她表示,未来几年芯片需求很可能仍将“非常高”。她的言论发表之际,该行业正面临日益严格的AI安全审查。
The stock has gained 28% this year, adding about $1.2 trillion to Nvidia’s market value and making it the single biggest contributor to the S&P 500’s advance. The latest boost for the AI trade came from Advanced Micro Devices Inc. Chief Executive Officer Lisa Su, who said chip demand is likely to remain “very high” for the next several years.
在交易方面,据知情人士透露,OpenAI正在与来自阿拉伯联合酋长国的多家投资基金进行谈判,其中包括总部位于阿布扎比的MGX,探讨为其ChatGPT开发公司筹集300亿美元融资提供支持。
Her comments come as the industry contends with growing scrutiny around AI safety.
在盘前交易中,Option Care Health Inc.的股价上涨超过20%,此前《金融时报》报道称,麦可森公司(McKesson Corp.)与私募股权投资公司Clayton, Dubilier & Rice即将达成一项协议,收购这家医疗输液服务提供商。该交易将使其公司价值(包括债务)超过50亿美元。
In deals, OpenAI is holding talks with several investment funds from the United Arab Emirates, including Abu Dhabi-based MGX, about helping anchor a $30 billion financing round for the ChatGPT maker, people familiar with the matter said. Option Care Health Inc. jumped more than 20% before the bell on a Financial Times report that McKesson Corp. and private equity firm Clayton, Dubilier & Rice are nearing a deal to acquire the medical infusion-services provider.
在IPO市场,DayOne Data Centers Ltd.已提交在美国上市的申请,这家总部位于新加坡的公司借此有望利用投资者对AI基础设施持续旺盛的需求。
The transaction would value the company at more than $5 billion including debt.
板块中,耐克公司。贝伦伯格下调卖出建议后,盘前交易下跌。该经纪公司认为,耐克在运动服装市场地位受到挑战以及中国市场疲软将给该股带来更多下行空间。
In the IPO market, DayOne Data Centers Ltd. filed for a US listing, positioning the Singapore-based company to tap continued investor appetite for AI infrastructure. Among individual stocks, Nike Inc. fell in premarket trading after Berenberg cut its recommendation to sell from hold. The brokerage sees more downside for the shares from challenges to Nike’s position in the sportswear market and weakness in China.