福特汽车股价在其此前的上涨热情消退以及更为严峻的经济背景下，大幅下跌。然而，分析师们的目标价仍然较高，寄托于公司盈利将继续改善的希望。
Motor Co. shares have fallen sharply as enthusiasm around its earlier rally fades and a tougher economic backdrop weighs on the auto industry. Analyst price targets, however, remain elevated on hopes that earnings will continue to improve.
该股自5月峰值下跌约30%，当时投资者们推动股价上涨，认为福特将从人工智能基础设施的建设中受益。自那以后，分析师们将平均目标价上调了16%，根据彭博汇编的数据，这使得福特股价与华尔街目标价之间的差距达到了3年来的最宽。
The stock has fallen about 30% from its May peak, when investors had pushed the shares higher on beliefs that Ford would benefit from the buildout of artificial-intelligence infrastructure. Since then, analysts have raised their average price target 16%, pushing the gap between Ford’s share price and Wall Street’s target to its widest in three years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
这意味着或许市场过于悲观，或华尔街仍过于乐观。威尔斯联盟（The Wealth Alliance）总裁兼董事总经理埃里克·戴顿表示，这样的分歧并不罕见。但他表示，市场对福特的信号值得引起注意。
That means either the market has become too pessimistic or Wall Street is still too optimistic. Such a disconnect isn’t unusual, said Eric Diton, president and managing director of The Wealth Alliance. But he said the market’s message on Ford is worth heeding.
戴顿表示：“我相信市场胜过分析师。我看不到提前入股的理由——我宁愿付出更高的价格并看到更好的基本面。”对福特来说，今年确实是波动较大的一年。5月份，该股上涨44%，因为投资者押注该汽车制造商将从人工智能基础设施的建设中获益。但随着缺乏客户和产能更新，使得这些收益难以持续，上涨势头逐渐消退。
“I believe the market before the analysts,” Diton said. “I see no reason to rush into the stock — I would rather pay more and see better fundamentals.”It’s been a volatile year for Ford. The shares surged 44% in May as investors bet the automaker would benefit from the buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure.
自劳动节以来，福特股价在20个交易日中有14个交易日下跌，过去四周下跌17%，因为人们对该公司电池储能业务的热情冷却了。更高的石油价格、利率和车辆可负担性问题带给汽车股的更广泛压力，也加剧了疲软态势。10月份，福特公布了第三季度车辆交付量同比下降的数据，令人失望。福特发言人未立即回应置评请求。
But the rally faded as a lack of customer and capacity updates made those gains difficult to sustain. Ford shares have now closed lower in 14 of the 20 sessions since Labor Day, losing 17% over the past four weeks as enthusiasm for the company’s battery-storage business cooled. Broader pressure on auto stocks from higher oil prices, interest rates and vehicle-affordability concerns has added to the weakness. October brought another disappointment when Ford reported a year-over-year decline in third-quarter vehicle deliveries.
不过，华尔街尚未出现看空福特的声音。在彭博社追踪的23位分析师中，没有人建议卖出该股。上个月，富国银行因分析师离职而停止对17只汽车股的跟踪研究，此前对福特给出的“卖出”评级也随之消失。
A Ford representative didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Wall Street, though, has yet to turn negative. None of the 23 analysts tracked by Bloomberg recommends selling the stock.
通用汽车同样没有收到任何看空评级，其股价表现也更为稳健。得益于强劲的业绩表现，通用汽车股价在7月份创下历史新高；此后虽有所回落，但较峰值水平仅下跌了11%。相比之下，同期福特股价跌幅接近这一数值的两倍。
Ford’s last sell-equivalent rating disappeared last month when Wells Fargo dropped coverage of 17 auto stocks amid an analyst departure. General Motors Co. also has no bearish ratings, but its shares have held up better. GM hit a record in July after strong earnings and has fallen 11% from that high, while Ford shares have dropped nearly twice as much over the same period.
上一次福特股价与分析师目标价之间的差距达到如此程度，是在2023年10月——当时美国汽车工人联合会发起的为期六周的罢工迫使福特撤回了全年盈利预期。
The last time the gap between Ford’s share price and analysts’ targets was this wide was in October 2023, after a six-week US autoworkers strike forced the company to withdraw its profit guidance.
彭博情报分析师埃里克·瓦尔盖塞指出：“研究机构对福特的盈利复苏持长期乐观态度，但由于执行层面存在不确定性，市场对该复苏前景的估值有所降低。”本月晚些时候公布的第三季度财报将成为新的检验标准。上个月，一家供应商的问题导致福特热销的F系列皮卡生产受阻，不过首席执行官吉姆·法利表示，今年最后三个季度的生产计划“仍在正常推进”。
Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Varghese said that “research is taking a longer-term view of Ford’s earnings recovery, while the market is assigning less value to that recovery because of execution uncertainty.”The company’s third-quarter results later this month will provide the next test. A supplier problem disrupted production of its popular F-Series trucks last month, though Chief Executive Officer Jim Farley said manufacturing is “on track” for the final three months of the year.
不过，瑞银集团分析师约瑟夫·斯帕克在周五发布的报告中指出：“问题可控并不等于能够完全弥补损失。”花旗集团分析师迈克尔·沃德也在周五的报告中写道，此次生产缺口“无疑是一大挫折，对第三季度财报表现构成负面影响”。斯帕克目前仍维持对福特股票的买入建议；沃德则于7月份将福特评级上调至“买入”，并将目标价设定为20美元，这一数值为华尔街预期的最高水平。
But “containable does not mean ‘make-up-able,’” UBS analyst Joseph Spak said in a note Friday. The production shortfall is “a setback and a negative heading into 3Q earnings,” Citi’s Michael Ward wrote in a Friday note. Spak holds a bullish recommendation on Ford; Ward upgraded the stock to buy and set his price target to a Street high of $20 in July.
根据彭博社的共识预测，福特预计将在第三季度实现调整后每股收益42美分。即便这一业绩达标，仍较去年同期下降7.8%。
Ford is expected to report third-quarter adjusted earnings of 42 cents a share, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates. Meeting that forecast would still represent a 7.8% decline from a year earlier.
法国巴黎银行分析师詹姆斯·皮卡里洛虽然预计整个汽车行业在即将到来的财报季能展现出韧性，但他指出，受供应商问题影响，福特需要大幅提升F系列皮卡的产量，才有可能实现全年生产目标。
Although he expects the upcoming earnings season to show resilience across the auto sector, BNP Paribas analyst James Picariello said Ford would need a “heroic” increase in F-Series production to meet its full-year target after the supplier disruption.
“这次9月的停工动态确实排除了福特上调全年指引的前景,”他补充道。
“This September downtime dynamic does remove the prospect for Ford to raise its full-year guide,” he added.