波音公司（Boeing Co.）的股票在2026年开局强劲，年内前三周飙升16%，因为投资者似乎对首席执行官凯利·奥特伯格（Kelly Ortberg）正在成功扭转这家陷入困境的喷气式飞机制造商的局面越来越有信心。但这种乐观情绪很快就消退了。
Boeing Co.’s shares got off to a strong start to 2026, jumping 16% in the first three weeks of the year, as investors appeared to grow confident that Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg was succeeding in turning around the struggling jetmaker. But the optimism faded quickly.
总部位于弗吉尼亚州阿灵顿的公司股价已从1月下旬的高点下跌26%，原因是一系列宏观经济冲击和公司特有的问题，目前交易价格甚至低于其2019年历史最高价的一半。在此期间，其表现也弱于竞争对手空客（Airbus SE）的股票以及通用电气公司（General Electric Co.）等制造业龙头股。
The Arlington, Virginia-based company’s stock has tumbled 26% from a late-January high, amid a series of macroeconomic shocks and company-specific issues, and is trading for less than half of its 2019 record price. It has also underperformed the shares of arch-rival Airbus SE and other manufacturing stalwarts like General Electric Co. over this time.
然而，根据彭博社追踪的分析师中建议买入该股票的比例，华尔街对波音的看涨情绪已高于2022年以来的任何时候。甚至没有一名分析师建议卖出该股票。
Yet, Wall Street has grown more bullish on Boeing than it has been since 2022, based on the percentage of analysts tracked by Bloomberg who recommend buying the shares. Not even a single analyst recommends selling the stock.
“我们很久以来都没有对波音如此看涨了，”美国银行分析师罗纳德·爱泼斯坦（Ronald Epstein）本周在给客户的报告中写道。“潜在回报丰厚，波音投资者面临的主要风险仍然是信任和披露问题。”根据该分析师的说法，今年压在股票上的连串负面新闻为投资者创造了一个有吸引力的入场点。
“We haven’t been this bullish on Boeing in a very long time,” Bank of America analyst Ronald Epstein wrote in a note to clients this week. “With potential rewards plentiful, the key risk for Boeing investors remains trust and disclosure concerns.”According to the analyst, the string of negative headlines that weighed on the stock this year has created a compelling entry point for investors.
从对737 Max产量提升放缓的不确定性，到可能的劳工罢工，再到737 Max喷气式飞机出现某些软件故障的消息，股票曾多次受挫。然而，随着这些问题中的几项如今已得到解决，分析师们仍在坚持看涨预期。
From uncertainty about a slower ramp up in 737 Max production, a potential labor strike, to the news of some software glitch in 737 Max jets, the stock took several blows. However, as several of those issues have now been resolved, analysts are holding on to their bullish outlooks.
“尽管近期事件带来波动，但在我们看来，尘埃基本已经落定，”爱泼斯坦补充道。
“Despite the volatility of recent events, the dust has largely settled in our view,” Epstein added.
波音因将于10月27日发布第三季度财报前的静默期而拒绝置评。
Boeing declined to comment due to the quiet period ahead of its third-quarter earnings on Oct. 27.
然而，尽管今年出现下滑，从估值角度来看，波音股票仍然偏高。根据彭博社汇编的数据，该公司目前的交易价格约为未来12个月预计盈利的71倍，使其成为道琼斯工业平均指数中估值最高的股票。这表明，如果公司遭遇进一步问题，可能会面临更大规模的抛售压力。
Yet, despite this year’s slump, Boeing shares are still expensive from a valuation perspective. The company is trading at about 71 times estimated earnings over the next 12 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, making it the most expensive stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. That suggests significant more selling could be in store if the company runs into further problems.
该公司面临诸多挑战。新飞机及其畅销737型号某些变体的认证进度低于预期，使公司失去了一笔可观的收入，而这笔收入本来可以帮助提升现金流和降低债务。
There’s no shortage of challenges for the company. Certification of new aircraft and some variants of its best-selling 737 model have been slower than expected, denying the company a lucrative windfall to help prop up cash and cut debt.
波音所面临的一些逆风因素远超其控制范围，且股市中更广泛的工业板块前景恶化——特别是那些未能从人工智能热潮中受益、未能搭乘数据中心建设浪潮的公司。伊朗战争导致油价和通胀居高不下，而今年美国国债收益率的飙升又加剧了人们对航空航天和防务等资本密集型行业借贷和运营成本上升的担忧。
Some of the headwinds that Boeing is confronting are far beyond the company’s control, and the backdrop for broader industrial sector of the stock market has deteriorated — particularly for those without the halo of artificial intelligence that’s lifting companies benefiting from the data-center buildout. The war in Iran has kept oil prices and inflation elevated, and this year’s surge in Treasury yields has fueled concerns about higher borrowing and operating costs for capital-intensive businesses across the aerospace and defense sector.
“油价超过100美元对飞机订单或售后市场收入并无帮助，”杰富瑞分析师谢拉·卡亚奥格鲁说道。
“Oil above $100 isn’t helpful for aircraft order or aftermarket revenues,” said Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu.
曾因卓越现金流而受到赞誉的波音，在过去七年中有五年出现现金流净流出。根据彭博社汇编的数据，分析师平均预计该公司今年的自由现金流约为22.7亿美元，而2018年这一数字曾达到136亿美元——今年的预期仅为当年水平的一小部分。
Boeing, once lauded for its stellar cash flow, has burned cash in five of the past seven years. Analysts on average expect the company to report free cash flow of about $2.27 billion for this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, a fraction of the $13.6 billion reported in 2018.
在9月中旬的行业会议上，奥特伯格明确表示，公司仍面临一长串需要解决的挑战，包括对即将推出的777X型号进行额外测试，这可能延续到明年。而首席财务官Jesus Malave Jr.对自由现金流持谨慎态度，表示由于关键飞机交付放缓，波音不太可能实现其之前预测的10亿美元至30亿美元区间的中点。
While presenting at an industry conference in mid-September, Ortberg made it clear the company still has a long list of challenges to work through, including additional testing on the upcoming 777X model that may spill into next year. And Chief Financial Officer Jesus Malave Jr. gave a cautious outlook on free cash flow, saying Boeing is less likely to beat the midpoint of its previous forecast of $1 billion to $3 billion because of slower key aircraft deliveries.
最终，股价的持续反转很可能取决于波音解决其最新版本737问题的能力——这款�机长期以来一直是航空业的主力机型，也是波音的畅销喷气式客机。
Ultimately, a lasting turnaround in the stock likely hinges on Boeing’s ability to resolve problems with the newest versions of its 737s — the plane that has long been the workhorse of the airline industry as well as Boeing’s top-selling jet.
“目前波音的故事绝对是一个转型故事，而且围绕着737的交付，”彭博智库分析师乔治·弗格森说道。
“The story about Boeing right now is definitely a turnaround story and it’s about 737 deliveries,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst George Ferguson.
Max系列是737的最新版本，多年来一直面临问题，这些问题早在奥特伯格于2024年8月担任首席执行官之前就已存在。有缺陷的自动飞行控制软件被指责导致狮子航空和埃塞俄比亚航空客机发生致命坠毁事故，这导致737 Max机队在2019年和2020年的大部分时间被停飞。随后，2024年1月，阿拉斯加航空一架客机在飞行中舱门塞脱落，导致737 Max 9型机短暂停飞。
The Max family is the newest of the 737s and has been struggling with problems for several years, predating Ortberg’s tenure as CEO that began in August 2024. Flawed automated flight control software was blamed for deadly crashes of planes operated by Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines, leading to the grounding of the 737 Max fleet for much of 2019 and 2020. Then again, 737 Max 9 jets were grounded for a brief period in January 2024 after a door plug blew out of an Alaska Airlines plane in flight.
此外，波音的国防业务也面临风险，因为投资者难以评估美国政府2027年预算最终会如何落地。
There are also risks to Boeing’s defense business, as investors find it difficult to gauge how the US government’s 2027 budget will ultimately shake out.
该飞机制造商目前正努力将其两款长期推迟的畅销机型推向市场：最近获得认证的737 Max 7，以及尚在等待监管认证的Max 10。
The planemaker is now working to bring two long delayed models of its top-selling jet to market: The recently certified 737 Max 7, and the Max 10 that is awaiting regulatory certification.
上周，联邦航空管理局的一个小组认定，737 Max的软件故障不构成安全风险。美国银行的爱泼斯坦表示，随着FAA的绿灯以及工会化白领工人罢工被取消，该股票已“实质性降低风险”。
A Federal Aviation Administration panel determined last week that the 737 Max software glitch does not pose a safety risk. Bank of America’s Epstein said the stock is “materially derisked” with the FAA’s green light, and the unionized white-collar workers strike off the table.
最重要的是，对于看涨案例而言，波音公司 — — 作为全球飞机制造业双寡头之一，与其最大竞争对手空客并列 — — 将从全球商用飞机需求预期的多年增长中受益。
And most importantly for the bull case, Boeing — which forms one half of a global aircraft-manufacturing duopoly alongside its biggest rival, Airbus — is set to benefit from an expected multi-year boom in demand for commercial aircraft worldwide.
“我们正走出该行业历史上最深、最长的低谷，”法国巴黎银行分析师马修·阿克斯表示。
“We’re coming out of the deepest, longest downturn in the history of the industry,” said BNP Paribas analyst Matthew Akers.
在国防方面也有一些亮点。阿克斯指出，F-47项目是波音在3月份击败洛克希德·马丁公司后赢得的。它还获得了生产海军下一代战斗机的合同，即仍处于保密状态的F/A-XX，击败了诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司。
On the defense side too, there are some bright spots. Akers highlighted the F-47 program, which Boeing won by beating Lockheed Martin Corp. in March. It also got the contract to produce the Navy’s next fighter jet, the still classified F/A-XX, beating Northrop Grumman Corp.
不过，根据泰格瑞斯金融首席投资官伊万·费因塞思的说法，波音更大的投资案例在于商业生产和交付的复苏。因此，认证延迟、质量控制和现金流是真正的执行风险。“波音必须在这三个方面展示持续进步，”他说。
Still, the larger investment case for Boeing is the recovery in commercial production and deliveries, according to Ivan Feinseth, chief investment officer at Tigress Financial. As a result, certification delays, quality control and cash flow are the real execution risks. “Boeing has to demonstrate sustained progress on all three,” he said.