2015年，当时的总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普在阿拉巴马州莫比尔举行集会，约有3万人前来聆听。他在共和党初选前声势大涨，这场在墨西哥湾沿岸城市吸引的大批观众，是他在竞选途中迎来的首个大型集会人群。这预示着他日后激发选民投票热情的非凡能力。
In 2015 when presidential candidate Donald Trump held a rally in Mobile, Alabama,some 30,000 people came to see him speak. He was exploding in popularity ahead of the Republican primaries, and the large audience he drew in that Gulf Coast city was his first major crowd on the campaign trail. It was foreshadowing of his exceptional ability to inspire voter turnout.
但据《纽约时报》报道，当特朗普周五在莫比尔一个仅容纳1万人的篮球馆发表演讲时，“部分上层看台几乎完全空置”。另一篇《纽约时报》文章指出，特朗普最近的集会“规模更小——有时也更平淡——不复往日气势”。上周，特朗普也未能坐满一座容量不足5000人的俄克拉荷马州赌场综合体。周末在俄亥俄州，据《时报》指出，“当特朗普在一所容纳4500人的高中学生活动中心讲完话时，上层看台的几个区域已空空如也”。
But, as The New York Times reports when Trump spoke in a far smaller 10,000-seat basketball arena in Mobile on Friday, “some upper sections were almost completely empty.”A separate Times article notes that Trump’s recent rallies are “more modest — and at times more sedate — than they used to be.”Also last week, Trump failed to fill fill an Oklahoma casino complex with a capacity of less than 5,000 people. Over the weekend in Ohio, “several areas of an upper deck were empty by the time Mr. Trump finished speaking at a 4,500-capacity high school student activity center,” the Times notes.
显示特朗普在意规模的一个迹象是，他在社交媒体上称“《纽约时报》和许多其他人造媒体机构，因报道空座位应被逮捕[原文sic]”。他还抨击福克斯新闻未给其平庸的集会更多报道。
In a sign that Trump thinks size matters, he said on social media that “The New York Times and many other Artificial Media Outlets, should be arrested [sic]” for reporting on empty seats. He also slammed Fox News for not giving his mediocre rallies more coverage.
特朗普历史上拥有提升共和党投票率的独特能力，但他可能不再具备这种魅力。
Trump historically has a unique ability to elevate Republican turnout, but he might not have the juice anymore.
集会出席人数减弱是另一个警示信号，表明共和党在11月可能面临麻烦。特朗普号召人群能力的减弱，不利于他的中期选举策略——即将2026年选举完全围绕自己展开，吹嘘自己的成就，并劝说选民“假装”他在选票上。特朗普历史上拥有提升共和党投票率的独特能力，但他可能不再具备这种魅力。
The weaker rally turnout is yet another warning sign that the GOP may be in trouble come November. Trump’s weakened ability to command crowds doesn’t bode well for his midterms playbook, which is to make the 2026 elections all about himself trumpet his own accomplishments, and persuade voters to “pretend” he’s on the ballot. Trump historically has a unique ability to elevate Republican turnout, but he might not have the juice anymore.
诚然，用人群规模来衡量政治热情更多是一门艺术而非科学。影响人群的变量很多，热情高涨的集会并不一定能转化为投票站的高投票率。但总体而言，人群规模可以表明一位政治家是否掌握了政坛的脉搏。
To be sure, using crowd sizes to gauge political enthusiasm is far more of an art than a science. Plenty of variables affect crowds, and enthusiastic rallies don’t necessarily translate to winning turnout at the polls. But in the aggregate, crowd sizes can indicate whether a politician has a finger on the pulse of the body politic.
共和党为何担心2006年“蓝色浪潮”重演 2026年10月4日 在这种情况下，特朗普较为适度的人群规模与民调结果一致，显示其铁杆基本盘正在萎缩。8月的多项民调显示，强烈赞同特朗普工作表现的美国人比例已跌至新低。
Why Republicans fear a repeat of the 2006 blue wave October 4, 2026 In this case, Trump’s more modest crowds align with polls that indicate his hardcore base is shrinking. Multiple August polls showed that the share of Americans who strongly approve of Trump’s job performance had plunged to new lows.
此外，作为“让美国再次伟大”联盟关键组成部分的农村美国人，也在对特朗普降温。这种支持度下降应被视为特朗普对伊朗发动失败战争、以及其战争引发的关税和油价上涨进一步加剧生活成本危机的可预见后果。
Moreover, rural Americans, a key element of the MAGA coalition, are also cooling on him Such diminished support should be seen as a predictable outcome of Trump’s failed war on Iran and him turbo-charging the cost-of-living crisis with tariffs and higher oil prices trigger by his war.
即使是特朗普更纯粹的意识形态和娱乐导向活动也遭遇冷场。《今日美国》专栏作家将今夏作为美国建国250周年庆典一部分的“美国国家大博览会”人员稀少的景象，比作“看着你的高中霸凌者办了一场无人参加的派对”。据报道，特朗普对6月启动博览会集会的寥寥人数“大发雷霆”。
Even Trump’s more purely ideological and entertainment-centric events have flopped. A USA Today columnist likened the emptiness of Trump’s “Great American State Fair” this summer as part of America’s 250th anniversary celebrations to “watching your high school bully host a party that no one attends.”Trump was reportedly “livid” at the meager turnout for his June rally kicking off the fair.
特朗普向来对自己的人群规模缺乏安全感。有时，他坚称自己的人群比实际更大，只是可悲的争强好胜心理作祟。但在这种情况下，随着中期选举临近，他可能声称吸引了更大的人群，因为他知道真相预示着共和党将面临一场艰难的选举。该帖子 特朗普号召力减弱对共和党不利 MS NOW
Trump has always been insecure about his crowd sizes. Sometimes, his insistence that his crowds were larger than they were is a symptom of pathetic one-upmanship. But in this case, as the midterms approach, he may be claiming that he’s drawing bigger crowds because he knows that the truth portends a rough election for the GOP. The post Trump’s weakening ability to draw crowds bodes poorly for the GOP MS NOW