只要出现新技术，就会出现反对新技术的声音。这些抗议活动有什么共同点呢？环境问题？反对亿万富翁？担心世界末日？不，人们只是害怕技术会取代他们的工作。如今，这是人工智能和数据中心。但在19世纪早期的英国，熟练的纺织工人担心机器会让雇主用更便宜的劳动力取代他们，并降低工资。他们上书官员、组织抗议并破坏针织架和其他纺织机械。
As long as there's been new technology, there's been opposition to it. What do these protests have in common? Environmental concerns? Resistance to billionaires? Fears that the world will end? No: people are simply scared that technology will replace their jobs. Today, it’s AI and data centers. But in early 19th century Britain, skilled textile workers feared that machinery would allow employers to replace them with cheaper labor and reduce wages. They petitioned officials, organized protests and destroyed knitting frames and other textile machinery.
几十年后，英国1865年的《机动车辆法案》对机动道路车辆施加了特殊限制：需要三人乘员，其中一人要走在前面举红旗，城镇速度限制为每小时2英里，乡村为每小时4英里。20世纪中叶，美国一个代表音乐家的工会担心广播电台和自动点唱机的音乐录音会与他们自己的现场表演竞争，因此禁止会员从事商业录音。几十年后，环球影业和迪士尼都起诉索尼公司，指控其Betamax录像机侵犯版权，因为观众录制电视节目时，索尼应对版权侵权负责。
A few decades later, Britain's Locomotives Act of 1865 imposed extraordinary restrictions on mechanically powered road vehicles: a three-person crew, including someone walking ahead with a red flag, and speed limits of 2 miles per hour in towns and 4 miles per hour in the countryside. In the mid-20th century, a union representing musicians in the U.S., fearing that the musical recordings on the radio and jukeboxes would compete with their own live performances, forbade their members from making commercial recordings. A few decades later, both Universal and Disney sued Sony Corporation over its Betamax recorder, arguing that Sony was responsible for copyright infringement when viewers recorded television programs.
业界说客杰克·瓦伦蒂臭名昭著地将VCR的威胁比作“波士顿连环杀手”。80年代，英国报纸工人罢工抗议默克尔·莫彻的新印刷厂使用现代化计算机和生产机械。还有那一年抗议学校使用计算器的数学老师。这些只是人们抗击技术的几个例子。许多新闻报道记录了公众对飞机和汽车、手机和寻呼机、计算机甚至电力的恐惧。
Industry lobbyist Jack Valenti notoriously compared the VCR's threat to the "Boston strangler." In the 1980s, newspaper workers went on strike in England to protest Rupert Murdoch's new printing plant with modernized computers and production machinery. And then there were math teachers that same decade who were protesting the use of calculators in schools. These are just a few examples of people pushing back on technology. There are many news reports documenting the public's fears of planes and cars, cell phones and beepers, computers and even electricity.
并不难理解。人们渴望安全、舒适、确定性。工作提供了一些这些东西。技术威胁到工作。
It's not hard to understand. People want security. Comfort. Certainty. A job provides some of that. Technology threatens jobs.
工人们忧心忡忡，生怕新机器会让他们失去工作。数学教师们也感到恐慌，因为他们看到计算器有可能彻底取代他们的教学作用。音乐家们曾认为录音技术会令现场演出不再受欢迎。好莱坞则对家用录像机深恶痛绝——既然在家就能看电影，谁还会专门跑去电影院呢？事实证明他们的担忧并非毫无道理，这些情况确实都发生了。
Workers are terrified that new machines will put them out of work. Math teachers get scared because they see how calculators would potentially eliminate the need for their instruction. Musicians believed that recordings would eliminate the popularity of live shows. Hollywood hated home recorders because why go to the movies when you can just watch at home? And they were right. All of this did happen.
但他们的判断也并不完全准确：如今教师、工厂工人以及机器操作员依然供不应求。如今的内容创作者数量比以往任何时候都多，视频、电视及电影内容也日益丰富。人们成功适应了这些变化。几十年后的今天，失业率已降至历史低位，仍有数百万个岗位空缺。我认识的每一位企业主都在四处招人。就在20年前还不存在的全新职业如今已吸纳了无数劳动力。
But they were also wrong. There’s a shortage of teachers, plant workers and machine operators. There are more creators now than ever, and more video, TV and movie content. People adapted. Decades later, unemployment is near historical lows. Millions of jobs remain unfilled. Every business owner I know is looking for help. New roles for humans that didn't exist just 20 years ago have employed countless people.
试想一下，如果回到2006年，告诉当时的人说到了2026年会出现“大麻合规经理”“健康顾问”或“提示词工程师”这类职业，他们肯定会觉得你疯了。人工智能、自动驾驶汽车、无人机、智能手机——所有这些技术都在改善着我们的生活。技术让企业运营效率大幅提升，还能治愈疾病、恢复听力、替换肢体并有效管理各类资源。
Imagine going back in time and telling someone in 2006 that in 2026 you're a "cannabis compliance manager" or a "wellness coach" or a "prompt engineer" — they would've thought you insane. AI, autonomous vehicles, drones, mobile phones, all of these things improve our lives. Technology enables businesses to run more efficiently. It cures diseases, restores hearing, replaces limbs and manages resources.
正是技术让当今世界比历史上任何时期都要美好。当然，技术也伴随着风险。每当有企业主向我咨询将数据上传至人工智能平台以及信任大型科技企业的隐私与安全隐患时，我总会提醒他们：这些数据既不安全也不私密，大型科技企业同样不可轻信。不过投资技术的核心在于获取投资回报。如果使用人工智能所带来的增长、生产力提升、利润增加及事业成功等收益，能远超其所带来的风险，那么企业主若拒绝承担这些风险反倒是不负责任的表现。我们平时坐飞机、吃巨无霸、过马路时同样都在承担各类风险啊。
It powers all the things in our world that make this world so much better than any world that existed in history. All because of technology. Of course there are risks. When business people ask me about the privacy and security risks of putting their data into AI platforms and trusting Big Tech, I always warn them that their data is not secure, not private and that you shouldn't trust Big Tech. But investing in technology is all about return on investment. If the rewards — growth, productivity, profits, success — of using AI are greater than the risks assumed, a business owner would be irresponsible not to assume these risks. We take risks flying in planes, eating Big Macs and crossing the street all the time.
我们不正是承担这些风险以换取相应的回报吗？技术会取代大量工作岗位——数以百万计的岗位。但如果认为人们会就此无所作为，那便是对人性的轻视。他们不会的，他们会另寻途径来实现自身价值。我们都清楚，若使用不当，人工智能可能引发各种问题；我们也知道数据中心会对环境造成破坏并影响周边社区。我们担心无人驾驶汽车会撞伤我们的宠物，甚至一架无人机就能击落一架商用飞机。
Do we not assume those risks to take advantage of their rewards? Technology will replace jobs. Millions of jobs. But it's an insult to humanity to assume that people will just play dead. They won't. They'll find other ways to define their purpose. We all know that AI, if used the wrong way, could create all sorts of problems. We're aware that data centers impact the environment and disrupt communities. We're concerned that driverless vehicles will run over our puppies, and a single drone could bring down a commercial aircraft.
技术确实可能带来危险，就连餐叉也有危险性。难道我们要禁止使用餐叉吗？吉恩·马克斯是马克斯集团的创始人，这是一家专门为小企业提供咨询服务的公司。
Technology can be dangerous. Forks can be dangerous. Do we ban forks? Gene Marks is founder of the Marks Group, a small-business consulting firm.