拿大人预计，未来12个月内通货膨胀率将会上升。这一趋势对正在考虑是否加息的加拿大央行而言可能是一个令人担忧的信号。
A majority of Canadians expect inflation to increase over the next 12 months, a potentially worrying sign for the Bank of Canada as it weighs interest-rate hikes. A Nanos Research Group poll for Bloomberg News shows 54% of Canadians think the yearly change in the consumer price index will be higher than the current 3% by this time next year.
纳诺斯研究集团受彭博新闻社委托开展的民调显示，54%的加拿大人认为，到明年此时，消费者物价指数的年增长率将高于目前3%的水平。
That compares with about a third who said inflation would be about the same over that time.
相比之下，约三分之一的受访者认为通胀水平将基本保持不变；仅有7%的人预计通胀率会下降。
Just 7% said inflation would be lower.
这些数据可能进一步加剧央行官员的担忧——他们正在评估当前的通胀预期是否正在偏离2%这一目标值。
The data may add to central bankers’ worries as they assess whether consumer inflation expectations are detaching from the bank’s 2% target.
该民调机构的创始人兼首席数据科学家尼克·纳诺斯指出，调查结果也反映出加拿大人普遍处于“焦虑且悲观的情绪状态”。
The results also speak to an “anxious, dour mood” among Canadians, said Nik Nanos, the polling firm’s founder and chief data scientist.
纳诺斯在接受采访时说道：“他们意识到，对于诸多重大问题，加拿大实际上能掌控的余地有限。”
“They realize that Canada only really has so much control over a lot of these big issues,” Nanos said in an interview.
如果通胀预期长期居高不下，加拿大人便可能将高于目标值的通胀水平纳入自身行为考量，比如要求更高的薪资或提前进行消费，这反而可能进一步推高物价水平。
The longer that inflation expectations remain elevated, the greater the risk that Canadians start to build above-target inflation into their behavior, such as asking for larger wage increases or bringing forward purchases, potentially adding to price pressures.
上个月，加拿大央行行长蒂夫·麦克莱姆警告称，如果政策制定者未能及时应对持续高企的通胀，央行可能不得不以更快的速度大幅加息。
Last month, Governor Tiff Macklem warned that if policymakers are slow to respond to sustained high inflation, the bank may have to hike even higher and at a faster rate.
不过他也指出，在当前充满不确定性的环境下，不必要的加息措施可能会削弱经济增长势头。
Raising borrowing costs unnecessarily, however, could weaken economic growth during a period of uncertainty, he said.
今年2月，受伊朗战争引发的全球石油价格震荡影响，加拿大的汽油价格开始上涨，进而带动整体通胀率上升。此后数月，整体通胀率一直维持在3%左右——这一数值恰好处于央行设定的通胀控制区间上限。
Inflation in Canada started to rise with gasoline prices in February, as the war in Iran set off a global oil shock that drove up energy costs. The headline rate has held near 3% — the cap of the bank’s control range for inflation — for months.
目前，官方尚不确定高企的油价是否正在向其他商品和服务领域传导，并由此引发更广泛的价格压力；同时他们也在讨论当前2.25%的政策利率是否足以有效抑制通胀。
Officials aren’t sure whether those high gas prices are feeding into broader price pressures in goods and services in the rest of Canada’s economy, and are debating whether the current policy rate of 2.25% is sufficient to keep price pressures in check.
借贷成本上升将抑制需求并拖累消费，从而有助于降低能源价格上涨引发整体通胀压力的风险。
Higher borrowing costs would restrain demand and weigh on consumption, helping to reduce the risk that higher energy prices feed into broader inflationary pressures.
隔夜掉期市场的交易员们认为，加拿大央行在10月28日的下一次会议上加息的可能性约为三分之一。他们预计，未来12个月内央行将累计加息超过100个基点。
Traders in overnight swaps put the odds of the bank raising rates at its next meeting on Oct. 28 at about a third. They are expecting more than 100 basis points of hikes over the next 12 months.
加拿大央行还将于10月19日发布商业前景及消费者调查数据，这些数据有助于进一步了解加拿大民众的通胀预期。调查结果在不同年龄、性别和地区群体中基本一致。
The Bank of Canada will also release business outlook and consumer surveys on Oct. 19 that will offer further insights into Canadians’ inflation expectations. Polling results were generally consistent across ages, genders and regions.
这项针对1,057名加拿大人的调查于9月27日至29日期间通过电话和网络方式进行，其统计误差范围在正负3个百分点以内，置信度达95%。
The survey of 1,057 Canadians was conducted between Sept. 27 and Sept. 29 by telephone and online, and is considered accurate within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.