9月份，通胀担忧加剧，纽约联邦储备银行月度调查中的短期通胀预期升至近3年半以来的最高水平。
Inflation fears intensified in September, pushing the near-term outlook in the New York Federal Reserve's monthly survey to its highest level in nearly 3½ years.
调查显示，未来12个月的通胀中位数预期升至3.9%，比8月份上升0.3个百分点，为2023年5月以来的最高水平（当时为4.1%）。
The central bank's Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that the median view for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.9%, up 0.3 percentage point from August and the highest level since May 2023, when the figure was at 4.1%.
同时，家庭支出增长预期也升至5.5%，环比上升0.3个百分点，同样为2023年5月以来的最高水平。
Similarly, the survey found that household spending growth is expected to hit 5.5%, also up 0.3 percentage point month over month and the highest since May 2023.
在通胀远高于央行2%的目标之际，美联储官员正在努力确定适当的货币政策。
The results come with Fed officials grappling over the proper setting of monetary policy as inflation holds well above the central bank's 2% target.
市场普遍预计，联邦公开市场委员会在10月底的会议上将维持基准利率不变。根据美联储首选的通胀指标，8月份的通胀数据低于预期。
Markets largely expect the Federal Open Market Committee to keep benchmark rates steady when it meets later in October. Inflation in August came in lower than expected, according to the Fed's preferred gauge.
近日，包括纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯在内的多位关键官员表示，政策制定者在评估利率水平时可以采取更为谨慎的态度。
In recent days several key officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, have said policymakers can afford to take their time when evaluating where interest rates should be set.
尽管如此，长期通胀预期有所改善：三年期通胀预期上升0.1个百分点至3.3%，五年期通胀预期保持不变在3%。
The survey did find that the outlook is better-anchored further out on the timeline. The three-year expectation edged up 0.1 percentage point to 3.3%, while the five-year view was unchanged at 3%.
然而，基于市场的指标并不乐观：一个备受关注的债券市场指标——盈亏平衡利率显示，五年期通胀预期处于今年以来的最高水平（2.35%）。国债收益率在过去几周内飙升，达到了本世纪初以来的水平。美联储官员认为通胀预期是推动通胀的关键因素。
Market-based indicators, though, are less positive. One closely watched bond market indicator known as a breakeven shows the five-year outlook around its highest level of the year at 2.35%. Treasury yields have been soaring in recent weeks, hitting levels not seen since the early part of the century. Fed officials consider expectations a key driver for inflation.
虽然市场预计美联储在下次会议上会维持现有政策，但期货合约显示未来几年央行可能会采取更为激进的措施，五年期利率预期为5.58%，而当前联邦基金利率的目标区间为3.75%-4%。
While looking for the Fed to stay put at its next meeting, markets are pricing in a much more aggressive central bank in the years ahead. Fed funds futures contracts are implying a rate of 5.58% in five years. The current funds rate is targeted between 3.75%-4%.