一位顾客在美国新泽西州北伯根的沃尔玛超级中心零售店推着装满杂货的购物车，2025年11月21日。
A customer with a loaded shopping cart of groceries at a Walmart Supercenter retail store in North Bergen, New Jersey, U.S., Nov. 21, 2025.
Mike Segar | Reuters 华尔街对美联储首选通胀指标的预估现在预计将从上个月促使央行加息的水平加速。
Mike Segar | Reuters Wall Street estimates for the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator now expect an acceleration from the level that prompted the central bank to hike rates last month.
这些预估是在周四公布的高于预期的生产者价格指数之后得出的，该指数达到1.3%，为2022年3月以来的最大月度涨幅，且超过共识预期0.6%的两倍多。
The estimates come after a hotter-than-expected producer price index came in at 1.3% Thursday, the biggest monthly gain since March 2022 and more than double the 0.6% consensus.
这推动了同比涨幅达到6.3%，为2022年12月以来的最大跳涨。涨幅主要受汽油价格上涨20%的推动。但剔除食品、能源和贸易服务后，价格仍健康上涨0.5%，表明通胀不仅仅是能源因素。
That drove the year-over-year increase to 6.3%, the biggest jump since December 2022. The increase was paced by a 20% rise in gasoline prices. But taking out food, energy and trade services, prices still rose a healthy 0.5%, indicating that inflation was broader than just energy.
CNBC汇总的七份华尔街预估显示，将于本月晚些时候公布的9月核心个人消费支出（PCE）通胀预计将上升0.32%，高于8月的0.25%。华尔街经济学家使用周三发布的消费者价格指数和PPI来估算PCE。
Seven Wall Street estimates gathered by CNBC show core personal consumption expenditures inflation for September, which will be published later this month, is forecast to rise 0.32%, up from 0.25% in August. Wall Street economists use the consumer price index released Wednesday, and the PPI to estimate the PCE.
“我们看到美联储在两周内再次加息的真实风险，尽管最近的美联储表态削弱了人们对连续加息的预期，” 全国互惠人寿首席经济官Kathy Bostjancic写道。
"We see real risks the Fed will deliver another rate hike in two weeks' time even as recent Fedspeak tempered expectations for back-to-back increases,'' wrote Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide.
几位美联储官员曾主张美联储无需急于加息，尽管他们表示仍需要更多加息。因此，周四的美联储期货显示，本月月底会议加息的概率仅为29%，但到12月至少加息一次的概率为91%。
Several Fed officials have argued that the Fed does not need to hurry to hike rates, though they have suggested more rate hikes are needed. As a result, Fed futures on Thursday showed just a 29% probability of a hike at the Fed meeting at the end of this month, but a 91% probability of at least one hike by December.
PCE上涨0.32%将使同比核心通胀率升至3.1%，高于8月的3.01%。预估区间从巴克莱的0.35%上限到牛津经济研究院的0.29%下限。
A 0.32% increase in PCE would boost the year-over-year core inflation rate to 3.1%, up from 3.01% in August. Estimates ranged from a high of 0.35% from Barclays to a low of 0.29% from Oxford Economics.
“随着通胀居高不下且加剧，形势并不乐观，”瑞穗证券美国高级经济学家亚历克斯·佩莱写道。“仅从经济数据来看，美联储继续上调政策利率几乎没有理由犹豫。”美联储主席凯文·沃什曾暗示，不加息的一个试金石是对通胀能够及时回归美联储2%目标的信心。自2021年以来，总体和核心PCE通胀均一直高于目标水平。自2025年4月关税实施以来，两者一直稳步上升。自伊朗战争爆发以来，涨幅进一步加速。
"The picture is not benign with inflation elevated and intensifying," wrote Alex Pelle, senior U.S. economist at Mizuho Securities. "On the economic data alone, there is little reason for the Fed to hesitate to continue moving the policy rate higher." Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has suggested one litmus test for not hiking is confidence that inflation will return in a timely manner to the Fed's 2% target. Both headline and core PCE inflation have been above target since 2021. They have inched steadily higher since tariffs were introduced in April 2025. The gains have accelerated since the beginning of the Iran war.
美联储更倾向于使用PCE，因为与CPI相比，它认为PCE更能反映美国人实际的消费方式，并且会在消费者消费模式发生变化时相应调整其权重。
The Fed prefers the PCE because, compared to the CPI, it believes it more closely resembles how Americans actually spend their money and changes its weightings when consumers change their spending patterns.