美国消费者价格在9月加速上涨，汽油费用激增，使得本月晚些时候加息再次成为焦点。
US consumer prices accelerated in September with a surge in gasoline costs putting an interest rate increase later this month back on the radar.
劳工部劳工统计局周三表示，消费者价格指数（CPI）上月上涨0.6%，此前8月份上涨0.4%。截至9月的12个月内，CPI上涨3.7%，此前8月份上涨3.4%。
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% last month after climbing 0.4% in August, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through September, the CPI advanced 3.7% after rising 3.4% in August.
路透社调查的经济学家曾预测，CPI将环比上涨0.6%，同比上涨3.6%。美国能源信息署的数据显示，9月份汽油价格飙升7.1%。
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI would gain 0.6% over the month and increase 3.6% on a year-over-year basis. Gasoline prices soared 7.1% in September, data from the US Energy Information Administration showed.
剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分后，CPI在9月份上涨0.3%，与8月份的涨幅持平。截至9月的12个月内，核心CPI通胀率上涨2.6%，此前8月份上涨2.4%。美国央行跟踪个人消费支出价格指数以实现其2%的通胀目标。核心CPI指标滞后于核心PCE通胀率，后者在8月份上涨了3.0%，这是因为篮子中各成分所赋予的权重不同。
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI gained 0.3% in September, matching the gain in August. In the 12 months through September, core CPI inflation increased 2.6% after advancing 2.4% in August. The US central bank tracks the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for its 2% inflation target. The core CPI measure is lagging core PCE inflation, which increased 3.0% in August, because of the different weights assigned to the components in the baskets.
股票：美国股票走低，纳斯达克(.IXIC)期货下跌0.7%，标普500(.SPX)期货下跌0.4%。
STOCKS: U.S. stocks were headed lower, with futures on the Nasdaq (.IXIC) down 0.7% and futures on the S&P 500 (.SPX) off 0.4%.
债券：随着投资者对加息的预期上升，收益率急剧上升。对利率走势敏感的美国两年期收益率上升14个基点至4.93% 。基准10年期收益率US10YT=RR>上升10个基点至5.314%。
BONDS: Yields rose sharply as investor expectations of a rate hike jumped. U.S. two-year yields, which are sensitive to the outlook for interest rate moves, rose 14 basis points to 4.93% . The benchmark 10-year yield US10YT=RR> rose 10 basis points to 5.314%.
外汇：美元指数上涨0.55%至102.75，达到18个月来的最高水平。大宗商品：黄金下跌1.6%至每盎司4088美元。
FOREX: The U.S. dollar index was up 0.55% to 102.75, an 18-month high. COMMODITIES: Gold fell 1.6% to $4,088 an ounce.
利率押注：结算至美联储政策利率的期货显示，央行在两周后的会议上将政策利率维持在当前3.75%-4%区间的概率约为49%，而报告前这一概率为19%。
RATE BETS: Futures that settle to the Fed's policy rate are pricing about a 49% chance that the central bank will keep the policy rate in its current 3.75%-4% range at its meeting in two weeks, up from 19% before the report.
“今天的报告没有什么真正的惊喜，能源成本推高了通胀。真正的担忧是这些能源成本正渗透到其他各个方面——核心通胀高于预期。
“No real surprises in today's report with energy costs pushing inflation higher. The real concern is those energy costs are filtering into everything else -- core inflation came in above expectations.
“我不认为这会导致美联储加息超过已经定价的0.25%，但长期收益率很可能继续上升。受此消息影响，10年期国债收益率接近5.3%。对投资者而言，通胀、地缘政治以及美国政府信用风险上升的组合正让债券再次受到青睐——因为更高的收益率使债券具有更大的分散作用。
“I don't think this leads the Fed to raise more than the 0.25% that's already priced in, but longer-term yields are likely headed higher. The 10-year is close to 5.3% on the news. For investors, the combination of inflation, geopolitics and growing U.S. government credit risk are making bonds great again, in the sense that higher yields give bonds greater diversification power.
“如果能想象的话，凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）的工作现在变得更艰巨了。市场已经消化了三次加息的预期——今年一次，明年两次——对美联储独立性的冲击可能会加速，这只会进一步推高收益率。
“Kevin Warsh's job just got a lot harder, if you could imagine such a thing. With the market already pricing in three rate hikes -- one more this year and two next year -- the assault on Fed independence is likely to accelerate, that would only push yields higher.
“一件事要……这超出了正常范围，表明数据中心蓬勃发展。因此，我认为这里存在人工智能热潮与通胀之间关联的有趣迹象。‘该报告与之前公布的ISM数据相吻合，制造业和服务业提供者都表明9月份投入价格出现跳升。
“One thing to . That's off the charts and indicative of the data center boom. So, I think there are interesting signs of a connection here between the AI boom and inflation.”“The report matched the previously reported ISM data with both manufacturers and service-providers suggesting that input prices jumped in September.
“这显然不是美联储希望看到的方向，特别是核心通胀在上升。然而，我们怀疑这不会改变当前的预期——即在今年年底前仅有一次加息。最可能发生在12月。
“This is clearly not the direction the Fed wants to see, particularly with core inflation ticking upward. However, we doubt this changes current expectations for just one rate hike between now and year end. Most likely in December.
“明年仍然是一个未知数，关税和高能源价格的影响可能因基数效应而开始机械性回落。能源价格明年可能仍然偏高，但若与2026年3月和4月冲突高峰相比，它们可能早在2027年初就开始以年同比基准拉低通胀。”
“Next year remains an open question with the impact of tariffs and high energy prices likely to start mechanically rolling off due to base effects. Energy prices could still be high next year, but when compared to the height of the conflict in March and April 2026, they could start to pull inflation lower on a year-on-year basis in early 2027. “It would not be surprising to see the Fed hike once more this year, then pause in early 2027 to see what happens with base effects.”
“看到美联储今年再次加息，随后在2027年初暂停以观察基数效应的影响，这并不令人意外。”
"Inflation pressures are broadening beyond energy, suggesting the last mile back to target could remain bumpy and keep interest rates elevated.
“通胀压力正从能源领域扩散，表明回到目标水平的最后一段路可能仍然崎岖不平，利率可能继续保持在高位。最新报告使得美联储本月的决策变得更加复杂，因为通往价格稳定的道路看来越来越难以导航。”
The latest report complicates the Fed’s decision this month, as the road back to price stability is looking increasingly difficult to navigate." "The (stock) market is selling off. Investors are not happy with the report because that puts pressure on the Fed to raise rates to combat inflation.
“（股票）市场正在抛售。投资者对该报告不满意，因为这给美联储施加了压力，迫使其加息以对抗通胀。目前，通胀仍是市场和美联储的公敌第一号。科技股正在抛售，我们将看到对小盘股、中盘股以及对利率敏感的市场板块施加一些压力……现在真正的问题是，通胀前景是否会有所缓解……目前，能源价格正在上涨，而非下跌。市场正在寻求一些缓解。”
Right now inflation remains public enemy number one for the market and for the Fed. Tech stocks are selling off, and we're going to see some pressure on small caps, mid-caps, interest-rate sensitive areas of the market...The real question now becomes will there be relief on the inflation front... Right now, energy prices are going up, not down.
彼得·安德森，安德森资本管理公司创始人，波士顿：“CPI读数高于预期，但我认为这还不足以引发另一次加息。正在出现一些轶事数据，表明消费者信心正在削弱，消费者并未像以前那样享受有利的环境。这些因素需要被纳入对消费者整体状况的评估中。”
“这当然会增加美联储在10月会议上加息的概率，但我仍然认为他们不会加息，因为在中期选举年，我们从未见过两次加息相隔不过两个月。”
The market is looking for some relief." PETER ANDERSEN, FOUNDER, ANDERSEN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, BOSTON: “The CPI reading is hotter than expected, but I don’t think it’s enough to fuel another interest-rate hike. There is developing anecdotal data suggesting consumer confidence is weakening and consumers are not enjoying as favorable an environment as before. Those factors need to be added to the overall picture of how the consumer is doing" "It certainly does increase the odds of the Fed raising rates at the October meeting but I still believe that they're not going to raise rates because we have never had two rate hikes within two months of midterm election years.
我倾向于这样说，因为通胀看起来并不像在失控，而美联储已经表明它将采取更为鹰派的方式来应对通胀。这无疑增加了12月加息的可能性。
"I would tend to say that because inflation does not appear as if it's running away and the Fed has already indicated that it is going to take a more of a hawkish approach to inflation. It certainly increases the likelihood of a rate hike in December."
虽然能源价格可能正在吸引头条新闻，但今天的报告表明通胀问题远比表面更为严重。核心通胀读数高于预期，进一步加深了人们对国内价格压力正在加剧而非缓解的担忧。
“While energy prices might be grabbing the headlines, today's report suggests the inflation problem runs much deeper. A stronger-than-expected core inflation reading adds to mounting evidence that domestic price pressures are becoming more entrenched, rather than easing.
市场认为政策需要变得更加紧缩才能将通胀拉回目标是正确的。问题在于，美联储是否准备好根据通胀前景的需求进行相应程度的紧缩。
"Markets are right to assume that policy will need to become much more restrictive to return inflation to target. The question is whether the Fed is prepared to tighten as much as the inflation outlook demands."
今早的通胀消息绝对不令人安慰。它显示通胀较上个月有所加速，并且仍然是美联储面临的问题。也就是说，尽管他们可能不会在本月加息，但美联储在12月加息50个基点的可能性相当大。
“The inflation news this morning is not comforting by any means, It shows that inflation did accelerate from the previous month and remains a problem for the Fed. That said, although they might not raise interest rates this month, there’s a good possibility that the Fed may have to increase by 50 basis points in December.
我之所以这样说，是因为油价仍然居高不下，并且继续上涨。特朗普总统宣布与俄罗斯达成协议显然不会显著降低柴油价格。此外，如果这场战争持续下去，WTI原油价格有可能重新回到三位数区间。
“Why am I saying that? Because oil prices remain stubbornly high and they are continuing to move higher. President Trump’s announcement of a deal with Russia is certainly not going to bring diesel prices down by very much. And there’s the possibility that if this war continues, WTI could go back into the triple digits.”
9月份通胀率升至3.7%，而8月份为3.4%。我们认为这里的关键在于，底层价格压力正在超出能源领域扩散。虽然汽油价格推动了当月涨幅的一半以上，但核心通胀连续第二个月上涨0.3%，年化现在达到2.6%，高于预期。
“Inflation rose to 3.7% in September, up from 3.4% in August. We believe the important piece here is that underlying price pressures are broadening beyond energy. Gas prices drove more than half of the monthly jump, but core inflation rose 0.3% for a second straight month and is now running at 2.6% over the year, above expectations.
“住房价格上涨至0.4%，随着燃油成本转嫁，机票价格继续攀升，商品价格也趋于坚挺。我们认为这使得10月加息重新成为可能，投资者应做好准备，在美联储10月28日的决策之前，债券和对利率敏感的股票将出现更大波动。对于长期投资者而言，保持多元化比对任何单一数据点做出反应更为重要。”
"Shelter picked up to 0.4%, airfares keep climbing as fuel costs get passed through, and goods prices firmed too. We think that puts an October rate hike back on the table, and investors should be prepared for more volatility in bonds and rate-sensitive stocks until the Fed’s October 28 decision. For long-term investors, staying diversified matters more than reacting to any single data point.”