在面临必须实现连续三年净海外移民数为负值这一目标的压力之下，安格斯·泰勒宣布：自2028-29财年起，联盟党设定的首个两年期净海外移民目标为10万人；此后该数值将逐步上升至13万人，并于2032年达到16万人。这一数值恰好介于工党与“一国党”所设定的目标之间。
nder pressure to match One Nation’s most recent iteration of its immigration policy of negative net overseas migration (Nom) for three years in a row, Angus Taylor has announced the Coalition’s new Nom target will be 100,000 in its first two years from 2028-29, rising to 130,000 then 160,000 by 2032. That sits conveniently between Labor’s target and One Nation’s.
此次联盟党公告中最令人意外之处在于：尽管这份长达六页的政策说明内容详实，值得称道，但其中竟完全没有提及劳动力市场相关事宜。
The most surprising aspect of the Coalition’s announcement is that in six pages of policy detail, for which the opposition should be commended, there is not a single mention of the labour market.
倘若劳动力市场状况维持现状——即失业率维持在4.6%、劳动力参与率保持在67%且存在约32.5万个职位空缺——那么连续两年实现每年10万人的净海外移民负增长目标根本不可能实现。届时，商界必将向联盟党施加巨大压力，要求其提高这一目标数值。
There is no chance a Nom figure of 100,000 a year over two years can be delivered if the labour market remains at around its current state. That is, an unemployment rate of 4.6%, and a participation rate of 67% with about 325,000 job vacancies. The Coalition would be overwhelmed by pressure from the business community to increase its target.
以我的经验来看，联盟党绝无法在移民政策问题上顶住商界的压力。正因如此，新冠疫情封锁措施解除后，联盟党大幅降低了移民准入门槛；而如今泰勒却声称需要重新提高这些门槛。2022年下半年，联盟党还不断敦促工党政府提高移民数量。
In my experience, the Coalition can never stand up to the business community on immigration levels. It was why it stomped on the immigration accelerator after the lifting of Covid lockdowns by introducing unprecedented reductions in immigration standards that Taylor now says need to be increased. The Coalition kept urging the Labor government to increase immigration levels in the second half of 2022.
工党在2022-23财年对净海外移民数的激增反应迟缓，如今正为当初忽视这一问题付出了代价。
Labor was too slow to act on the blowout in Nom in 2022-23 and is now paying the price for pretending it didn’t need to be managed.
联盟党或许会以加拿大为例：该国成功将2023-24财年的净海外移民数从100万人以上降至2025-26财年的20万人以下。不过这一成效得益于当时疲软的劳动力市场——当时加拿大失业率约为7%，且2025年大部分时间里劳动力参与率持续下降。正是在这种环境下，加拿大大幅削减了留学生及临时劳工的入境数量，此举甚至严重影响了各大学的预算。不过随着劳动力市场逐步回暖，加拿大的净海外移民数如今也正在强劲回升。
The Coalition may point to Canada successfully reducing Nom from well over 1 million in 2023-24 to less than 200,000 in 2025-26. That was driven by a very weak labour market with unemployment about 7% and a falling participation rate in most of 2025. In that weak labour market, Canada massively cut student and temporary worker numbers. It smashed university budgets. But Nom in Canada is now rising strongly as its labour market strengthens.
移民配额的大幅波动绝非良策。企业和政府机构都需要稳定且可预测的环境才能进行规划与投资。住房建设行业亦是如此——在政府缺乏大力扶持的情况下，面对日益激烈的移民配额削减竞争，该行业很难增加住房建设规模。
Massive fluctuations in Nom are never good policy. Business and government agencies need stability and predictability to plan and invest. That includes the housebuilding industry which, without massive government support, will be reluctant to increase housebuilding against the background of an ongoing competition for huge cuts to immigration levels.
这并非意味着联盟党提出的各项措施毫无必要。鉴于目前我们难以为那些极易受伤害的群体提供充足的安置服务，将人道主义移民配额从2万人削减至1万人不失为合理之举。数据显示，90%的难民儿童在抵达后的第一年便陷入贫困，这绝非慷慨大度的体现，而是政策失当的结果。
That is not to say there aren’t aspects to the Coalition’s announcement that may be necessary. Reducing the humanitarian program from 20,000 to 10,000 is sensible when you consider we are now struggling to provide adequate settlement services to this highly vulnerable cohort. The finding that 90% of refugee kids live their first year in poverty is not the sign of generosity but of policy failure.
减少在澳的临时毕业生签证持有者数量以及过渡签证持有者数量同样合乎情理。
It also makes sense to reduce the number of temporary graduate visa holders in Australia as well as the number on bridging visas.
然而，声称该政策能将过渡签证持有者数量从目前的40多万人大幅削减至2万人，纯属无稽之谈。目前积压的大量过渡签证申请中，不仅有学生签证申请，还包括父母签证、伴侣签证以及难民庇护申请。虽然联盟党与工党对在澳签证申请的收紧措施有助于减少过渡签证申请量，但大部分积压申请仍将无法处理。
But the claim that the policy will “virtually eliminate bridging visas” from more than 400,000 currently to 20,000 is arrant nonsense. A very large portion of the bridging visa backlog is onshore applications for not just student visas but also parent visas, partner visas and asylum. While some of the Coalition’s and Labor’s tightening of onshore visa applications will help reduce the flow of applications into bridging visas, the bulk of the backlog will remain.
目前在澳的临时毕业生人数已逾27万，而永久居留名额却十分有限。工党本应采取更多措施来解决这一问题。不过，联盟党试图将这一数字降至1万人的做法则有些矫枉过正了。
At more than 270,000, there are too many temporary graduates in Australia chasing too few permanent residence places. Labor should have done more to address this. However, the Coalition’s policy of trying to reduce this to 10,000 is going too far.
临时毕业生是获得技术类临时签证、地区签证、各州及领地提名签证以及独立技术移民签证的主要人群。联盟党并未提议削减这些签证的发放数量——事实上，该党还计划将技术类临时签证名额增加10万个以上。若如此，就需要从海外直接招募更多人才来填补这些名额。更多海外直接移民的到来只会提升净移民人数，而不会使其减少。此外，这还需要降低移民门槛，而非如泰勒所承诺的那样提高标准。
Temporary graduates are a key feeder group into skilled temporary visas, the regional visa, state and territory-nominated visas and the skilled independent visa. The Coalition is not proposing to cut any of these – indeed, it is proposing to increase skilled temporary visas by over 100,000. If that is the case, it will need to find more people directly from overseas to fill these visa places. More people coming directly from overseas would increase Nom, not reduce it. It would also require a reduction in standards, not the increase Taylor is promising.
联盟党提议从2026年起，将年度留学生入学人数从政府设定的29.5万人的全国规划目标下调至24.5万人。不过按照工党现行政策，目前留学生签证拒签率极高，29.5万人的目标本就难以实现。实际上，工党与联盟党在留学生签证政策上的立场极为接近。真正可能重创国际教育产业、导致政府不得不动用纳税人资金救助大学或引发大规模失业的，反而是“一国党”的政策。
The Coalition is proposing to reduce annual student commencements to 245,000 from the government’s national planning level (NPL) of 295,000 in 2026 and 2027. But under Labor’s own policy, with eye-wateringly high levels of student visa refusals, the 295,000 will not be delivered. Essentially, Labor and the Coalition are very close on student visa policy. It’s One Nation’s policies that are more likely to smash the international education industry, forcing taxpayer-funded bailouts of universities and/or huge job losses.
永久移民配额将维持在每年18.5万人的水平，这一数值每年可为净移民人数贡献约7.5万人，但联盟党似乎并未将这一点纳入考量。
The permanent migration program is to be held at 185,000 a year. That contributes about 75,000 a year to Nom, which the Coalition seems to have not considered.
联盟党预计，在澳新西兰公民人数将增加4.5万人，达到77.66万人。要实现这一目标，不仅需要劳动力市场持续繁荣，还需要每年有约3.5万名新西兰公民加入净移民队伍。原因在于，每年约有2万至3万名新西兰人成为澳大利亚公民，此后便不再被计入在澳新西兰公民人数之中。
The Coalition says the number of New Zealand citizens in Australia will increase by 45,000 to 776,600. That would require both continuation of a strong labour market as well as a major contribution of NZ citizens to the Nom of about 35,000 a year. That is because between 20,000 and 30,000 New Zealanders become Australian citizens annually – thus are no longer counted as NZ citizens in Australia.
工作度假者每年为净移民人数做出的贡献也将得以延续。2024至2025年度，这一数值已远超5万人；即便未来略有下降，在劳动力市场保持繁荣的情况下这一趋势仍会持续。
The large annual contribution to Nom from working holidaymakers is to continue. In 2024-25, that was well over 50,000 which could fall marginally but would largely continue in a strong labour market.
劳动力市场保持强劲的话，会有更多澳大利亚公民回国，离开的人则会减少，不过净移民人数仍会呈现负增长。
With a strong labour market, there will also be high numbers of Australian citizens returning and fewer leaving although the net contribution to Nom would remain negative.
根据联盟党自己的测算，其在第一年和第二年都难以实现10万人的净移民目标。这些只是政治目标，而非政策目标。阿布尔·里兹维曾任移民部副部长。
On its own calculations, the Coalition would not come close to delivering its Nom target of 100,000 in years one and two. Those are political targets, not policy targets. Abul Rizvi is a former deputy immigration secretary