首尔，10月7日：受人工智能领域强劲需求的推动，三星电子预计第三季度营业利润将增长近9倍。不过自8月底以来，分析师们已将其盈利预期下调了近8%。
SEOUL, Oct 7 : Samsung Electronics is expected to report a nearly nine-fold jump in third-quarter operating profit, driven by robust AI demand, though analysts have cut forecasts by nearly 8 per cent since the end of August. Despite moderating gains in the prices of memory chips and a strengthening South Korean won, the world's largest memory-chip maker is expected to post operating profit of 106.1 trillion won ($79.1 billion) for the July-September quarter.
尽管存储芯片价格涨幅有所放缓，且韩元汇率持续走强，这家全球最大的存储芯片制造商预计在7月至9月期间仍能实现106.1万亿韩元（约合791亿美元）的营业利润。
The LSEG SmartEstimate, based on forecasts from 21 analysts, and weighted toward those with stronger track records has been slashed by 7.7 per cent since the end of August.
根据21位分析师的预测数据计算得出的LSEG SmartEstimate指数，由于更侧重参考业绩表现优异的分析师意见，该指数自8月底以来已下调了7.7%。
It will be up from 12.17 trillion won a year earlier for Samsung's fourth consecutive quarter of record operating profit, underscoring a prolonged memory shortage as demand for AI infrastructure outstrips supply growth.
这一数值较去年同期的12.17万亿韩元有明显提升，标志着三星连续第四个季度创下营业利润纪录。这也反映出当前存储芯片供应持续紧张的局面——人工智能基础设施的需求增速远远超过了供给增长速度。
Chipmakers expect the shortage, which began more than a year ago, to persist into next year and perhaps through 2028. However, the pace of price increases slowed in the third quarter, fanning concerns that chip margins may have peaked and prompting questions about the durability of the AI spending boom.
各芯片制造商预计，这场始于一年多前的供应短缺现象将持续到明年，甚至有可能延续至2028年。
Samsung will provide preliminary Q3 results on Thursday before detailed data is released in late October.
不过第三季度存储芯片价格涨幅有所放缓，这引发了市场担忧：芯片行业的利润率或许已触及峰值，同时也让人对人工智能相关支出的增长势头能否持续产生疑问。
The moderation in memory prices is being closely watched by investors after a more than one-year-long rally fuelled by AI-driven demand.
三星将于周四公布第三季度的初步业绩，详细数据则会在10月下旬发布。
That rally propelled the world's largest memory producers Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, to record profits and margins.
在人工智能需求带动下，存储芯片价格已连续一年多保持上涨势头，如今其涨幅放缓的情况正受到投资者的密切关注。
RISING COST BURDEN Higher chip prices have pushed up the cost of smartphones and consumer electronics, weighing on demand.
这一轮涨价潮推动全球最大的三家存储芯片生产商——三星、SK海力士和美光科技均实现了利润与利润率的历史新高。
At the same time, long-term supply deals between chipmakers and customers have limited price gains in exchange for guaranteed supply.
成本压力上升：存储芯片价格的上涨推高了智能手机及消费电子产品的成本，进而抑制了市场需求。与此同时，芯片制造商与客户之间签订的长期供货协议也限制了价格的进一步上涨，作为交换条件则是确保稳定的供货量。
TrendForce expects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 10 per cent to 15 per cent in the fourth quarter from the preceding quarter, slowing from a second-quarter surge of roughly 60 per cent. "Although the market remains in a tight supply position, the pace of price growth is expected to decelerate," said Avril Wu, its senior vice president for research.
TrendForce预测，第四季度常规DRAM产品的合约价格较上一季度将上涨10%至15%，涨幅较第二季度约60%的增速明显放缓。
Suppliers are wary of further steep price increases that could hurt demand across a broad range of consumer electronics, Wu added.
尽管市场仍处于紧缺供应状态，但价格增长速度预计将放缓，邬先生（Avril Wu）表示，她是该公司的高级副总裁兼研究主管。
"In addition, long-term agreements represent an increasingly higher proportion of suppliers' total output.
邬先生补充称，供应商们担心进一步的大幅价格上涨可能损害广泛消费电子产品的需求。
With ceiling-price mechanisms built in, the rate of price increases has slowed down," Wu said.
“此外，长期协议所占供应商总产量的比重越来越高。由于内置了最高价格机制，价格上涨的速度已经放慢了，”邬先生说。
In July Samsung said it aimed to secure long-term contracts covering about two-thirds of its memory output, joining rivals seeking to reduce exposure to the industry's boom-and-bust cycles.
7月份，三星表示其目标是确保覆盖其内存产量约三分之二的长期合同，加入其他竞争对手试图降低对行业周期波动的敞口之列。
US rival Micron said the chip market could be tighter in 2027 and 2028 than this year, although it expects its gross margin to slip to 86.3 per cent in the current quarter, from 87 per cent, partly due to employee compensation costs.
美国竞争对手美光表示，芯片市场在2027年和2028年可能比今年更紧张，尽管它预计当前季度毛利率将从87%下滑至86.3%，部分原因是员工 compensation 成本。
Samsung's memory-chip operating profit margin is expected to reach 76 per cent in the third quarter, flat with the preceding quarter, estimates by SK Securities analyst Han Dong-hee show.
SK证券分析师韩东希（Han Dong-hee）的估计显示，三星的内存芯片营业利润率预计将在第三季度达到76%，与前一季度持平。
It also faces growing competition from Chinese rivals, which remain concentrated in lower-end products but are benefiting from the AI-driven memory shortage.
它还面临来自中国竞争对手的日益激烈的竞争，尽管这些竞争对手仍主要集中在低端产品上，但他们正受益于人工智能驱动的内存短缺。
"Our industry checks indicate that an increasing number of OEMs and ODMs are adopting Chinese DRAM and NAND," Kinngai Chan, senior research analyst at Summit Insights Group, said in a report.
“我们的行业检查表明，越来越多的OEM和ODM正在采用中国的DRAM和NAND，” Summit Insights Group的高级研究分析师陈凯基（Kinngai Chan）在一份报告中表示。
Currency swings are another headwind.
货币波动也是另一个挑战。韩元在第三季度对美元升值14.3%，创下自1998年初以来的最大季度涨幅，从17年低点强劲反弹。这降低了汇回时海外收益的价值。
The won strengthened 14.3 per cent against the dollar in the third quarter, rebounding sharply from 17-year lows for its biggest quarterly gain since early 1998. That reduces the value of overseas earnings when repatriated. Samsung shares have fallen about 25 per cent from a June record but remain more than double their level at the start of the year.
三星股价已从6月的纪录高点下跌约25%，但仍然是年初以来的两倍多。
The company is expected to boost sales of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, a critical component for AI data centres, as it narrows the gap with market leader SK Hynix.
该公司预计将提振人工智能数据中心关键组件高带宽存储器（HBM）芯片的销售，因为它正在缩小与市场领导者SK海力士之间的差距。
Samsung had lagged in HBM supplies after delays in qualifying products for Nvidia, but has gained ground this year by expanding shipments of its latest HBM4 chips.
三星去年在为Nvidia产品认证时出现延误，导致HBM供应落后，但今年通过扩大最新HBM4芯片的出货量，逐渐追上。
Its HBM market share is expected to rise to 34 per cent this year from 20 per cent last year, J.P.
J.P.摩根估计，三星的HBM市场份额有望从去年的20%升至今年的34%，而SK海力士的份额则预计从60%降至46%。
Morgan estimates, while SK Hynix's share is forecast to fall to 46 per cent from 60 per cent.