根据路透社对经济学家的调查，韩国第三季度的经济增长速度略快于4月至6月期间。半导体出口的强劲增长以及与人工智能（AI）相关领域的投资帮助抵消了国内需求的不确定性。
By Renusri K South Korea's economy grew slightly faster in the third quarter than in April to June, as booming semiconductor exports and AI-related investment helped offset still-uneven domestic demand, a Reuters poll of economists showed.
多年来，人工智能技术推动了韩国经济的发展，但同时也使韩国经济越来越依赖芯片出口；这些积极因素尚未在韩国国内经济中得到广泛体现。与此同时，高昂的借贷成本和不断增加的家庭债务抑制了居民的消费需求。
An AI-fuelled chip boom has supported South Korea's economy for years, but has also made it increasingly reliant on chip exports, with the gains yet to spread widely through the domestic economy. Meanwhile, high borrowing costs and elevated household debt have weighed on household consumption.
9月份，韩国的出口额同比增长84%，达到创纪录的1209亿美元，其中芯片出口额增长了262.8%，达到603亿美元。半导体产品占出口总额的近一半，这凸显了该行业在推动国内生产总值（GDP）增长中的关键作用。
Exports rose 84% from a year earlier to a record $120.9 billion in September, led by a 262.8% surge in chip exports to $60.3 billion. Semiconductors accounted for nearly half of total shipments, underlining the industry's outsized role in driving gross domestic product growth.
根据10月14日至23日对16位经济学家的调查结果，韩国经济在7月至9月季度的环比增长率为0.7%，略高于4月至6月季度的0.6%。经济学家们的预测范围在0.5%至1.6%之间。
The economy grew a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in the July-September quarter, according to the median forecast of 16 economists polled from October 14-23, a slight pickup from 0.6% growth in the April-June quarter. Forecasts ranged from 0.5% to 1.6%.
“问题在于我们能否从出口行业获得真正的经济收益。关键在于这些收益能否传导到国内经济中，而财政政策是缓解经济压力的重要手段，”野村证券的亚洲经济学家郑宇朴（Jeong Woo Park）表示。
"The question is whether we will see benefits from the export sector. It is important to see the transmission to the domestic economy, and one of the key channels is fiscal policy to ease the pressures," said Jeong Woo Park, Asia economist at Nomura.
“当前的金融环境正在变得不那么宽松，劳动力市场也处于结构性低迷状态。随着企业加速采用人工智能技术，年轻一代找工作变得越来越困难，”郑宇朴补充道。
"Financial conditions are becoming less accommodative and the labour market is structurally in downturn. With companies adopting AI more rapidly, for the younger generation it is very hard to find jobs," Park said.
快速增长的高端芯片行业与经济其他领域的疲软需求之间的对比，引发了一些经济学家的担忧：自第一季度开始的韩国经济复苏正在变得越来越不均衡。
The contrast between the fast-growing chip sector and softer demand elsewhere in the economy has raised concerns among some economists that the recovery, which began in the first quarter, is becoming increasingly uneven.
根据16位经济学家的预测，韩国GDP的同比增速预计为3.0%，低于上一季度的3.7%。
On a year-on-year basis, GDP was forecast to grow 3.0%, slowing from 3.7% in the previous quarter, based on the median estimate from 16 economists.
“增长由人工智能驱动的集中风险在一定程度上应该让韩国银行（BOK）感到担忧，但我认为他们并没有表现得过于担心，”潘特恩宏观经济公司（Pantheon Macroeconomics）高级经济学家林凯文说。“韩国经济对此非常脆弱，因为现在一切主要由半导体产业驱动。”
"The concentration risk of growth being driven by AI should worry the BOK to some extent, but I don't think they are showing it too much," said Kelvin Lam, senior economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "The Korean economy is very vulnerable to this as everything now is driven mainly by the semiconductor industry." The Bank of Korea held its benchmark interest rate at 3.00% on Thursday, in line with consensus expectations, and raised its growth forecast to 3.3% for this year and 2.9% for next year.
韩国银行周四将基准利率维持在3.00%，符合市场预期，并将今年的增长预测上调至3.3%，明年上调至2.9%。另一项路透社调查预测2026年的增长率为3.5%。
A separate Reuters poll forecast growth of 3.5% in 2026.