首尔，10月27日——韩国央行数据显示，如果美国主要科技公司明年放缓在人工智能领域的资本支出，韩国的半导体出口可能较此前预测减少500亿至1000亿美元。
SEOUL, Oct 27 : South Korea's semiconductor exports could fall by $50 billion to $100 billion compared with earlier forecasts if capital spending on artificial intelligence by major US technology firms slows next year, according to central bank data.
韩国央行在提交给议员安道杰的书面答复中，模拟了一种“悲观情景”，以评估如果美国科技巨头削减其激进的基础设施支出可能造成的经济影响。
In a written response submitted to lawmaker Ahn Do-geol, the Bank of Korea (BOK) modelled a "pessimistic scenario" to assess the economic fallout if US tech giants curb their aggressive infrastructure outlays.
在该情景下，出口突然减少将推动韩国经常账户顺差远低于韩国央行对2027年4300亿美元的最初预测，从而使明年韩国GDP增速下降约0.4个百分点。该情景假设韩国半导体单价下降10%。
Under the scenario, a sudden export shortfall would shave approximately 0.4 per centage point off South Korea's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate next year, by driving the country's current account surplus well below the central bank's initial projection of $430 billion for 2027. The scenario assumed a 10 per cent decline in Korean semiconductor unit prices.
这一评估凸显了人们对韩国严重依赖芯片的担忧日益加剧，芯片约占韩国出口总额的一半。
The assessment underscores growing anxiety over South Korea's heavy reliance on chips, which account for roughly half of its exports.
报告称，亚马逊、谷歌、微软、Meta和甲骨文这五家美国大型科技公司的合计资本支出增长迅速，从去年的400亿美元增至今年的约800亿美元，预计明年将达到1100亿美元。
The report said combined capital expenditure by five major US technology firms, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle, has been growing rapidly, from $40 billion last year to an estimated $80 billion this year, and is projected to reach $110 billion next year.
不过，韩国央行警告称，围绕人工智能需求轨迹以及整个存储芯片行业周期仍存在相当大的不确定性。
However, the BOK cautioned that considerable uncertainty remains over the trajectory of AI demand and the broader memory chip business cycle.