
随着全球各国都在应对借贷成本飙升的问题,几乎没有国家拥有韩国目前正在考虑的选项:利用一项主要的新资金来源,直接减少发债规模。
As nations across the globe grapple with a surge in borrowing costs, almost none enjoy the option now being eyed in South Korea: deploying a major new source of cash to simply cut back on selling debt.
亚洲第四大经济体已经敲定计划,设立“未来应对基金”,利用该国因人工智能热潮而激增的税收收入中的一部分。如今,该国一位顶级决策者敞开了可能性:如果债券市场承压,可动用这笔资金减少政府借贷。
Asia’s fourth-largest economy has already outlined plans to establish a Future Response Fund, using part of the nation’s extraordinary surge in tax revenue stemming from the artificial intelligence boom. Now, one of the country’s top policymakers is leaving open the possibility of reducing government borrowing in the event of bond markets coming under pressure.
韩国企划财政部长官朴洪根(Park Hong Keun,音译)在接受彭博社采访时表示,如果收益率飙升或市场状况恶化,政府可能考虑动用该基金进一步减少发行国债。
Park Hong Keun, South Korea’s planning and budget minister, said in an interview with Bloomberg that the government could consider using the fund to further reduce bond issuance if yields surge or market conditions deteriorate.
法国和美国的辩论集中在对各自债券市场采取不同类型的干预措施上,而在首尔,得益于韩国半导体生产带来的税收激增,官员们已经有能力削减借贷。
While debate in France and the US is centered around different types of intervention in their bond markets, in Seoul, officials are already able to trim borrowing thanks to the revenue surge from South Korean semiconductor production.
朴洪根表示,目前韩国坚持按计划明年减少12.5万亿韩元(约合95亿美元)的发债规模。但他暗示,如果有需要,这笔储备资金可作为一项资源动用。
For now, South Korea is sticking with a planned 12.5 trillion won ($9.5 billion) reduction in debt issuance next year, Park said. But if needed, the reserve fund is a resource, he indicated.
朴洪根说:“最好将该基金视为一种稳定机制——一座财政大坝——用于明年之后的未来时期,以应对税收收入可能低于预期的情况。”他还表示,政府打算让该基金延续至现任政府任期之后。
“It would be better to view the fund as a stabilization mechanism — a fiscal dam — for a future period beyond next year should tax revenues come in below expectations,” Park said. He also said the government intends for the fund to continue beyond the current administration.
随着芯片热潮推动韩国迈向出口额首次突破1万亿美元的年份,税收收入随之激增。韩国央行行长申贤松(Shin Hyun Song,音译)上周表示,今明两年的经济增长将大幅超出央行此前的预测。
The surge in tax revenue comes as the chip boom pushes South Korea toward its first year of more than $1 trillion in exports. Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun Song said last week growth this year and next would substantially exceed the bank’s previous forecasts.

对首尔而言,挑战在于如何将盈利和税收激增转化为持久的经济收益——同时避免锁定难以维持的支出。
For Seoul, the challenge is how to turn a surge in earnings and tax receipts into lasting economic gains — without locking in spending that may prove hard to sustain.
朴勋称,现在用所有意外之财偿还债务本身也存在风险。如果税收随后走弱,政府可能不得不再次借款,且可能面临更高的利率。
Park said using all the windfall to repay debt now would carry risks of its own. If revenue subsequently weakens, the government could have to borrow again, potentially at higher interest rates.
朴勋是新基金的关键设计者,预计明年该基金将获得162.3万亿韩元,这得益于人工智能支出激增推动了对三星电子和SK海力士芯片的需求。在为关键政策优先事项提供资金并减少净发债后,大约三分之二将作为储备金保留。
Park was a key architect for the new fund, which is expected to receive 162.3 trillion won next year amid the AI spending surge that’s propelled demand for chips from Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. Roughly two-thirds would remain in reserves after financing key policy priorities and reducing net bond issuance.
未来基金的规模可能会增长。朴勋表示,政府尚未决定如何处理今年预计额外获得的约51万亿韩元国内税收,在用部分意外之财减少10月发债后,这笔钱可能注入基金、用于减少政府债务,或通过现有的年末会计程序进行分配。
The numbers for the future fund could grow. The government has yet to decide what to do with about 51 trillion won in additional domestic tax revenue expected this year, after using part of the windfall to reduce October bond issuance. That money could go into the fund, be used to reduce government debt or be allocated through existing year-end accounting procedures, Park said.
政府计划发行约223万亿韩元债券,略少于今年。在新基金提供12.5万亿韩元的帮助下,净发债规模——即增加未偿债务的金额——将降至96.3万亿韩元。
The government plans to sell about 223 trillion won of bonds, slightly less than this year. Net issuance — the amount that adds to outstanding debt — would fall to 96.3 trillion won, helped by 12.5 trillion won from the new fund.
朴勋表示:“自然地,我们需要在风险资产和安全资产、长中短期投资、海外和国内资产、股票和债券之间实现多元化配置。”
Read Also: Korea Plans Near-Record Bond Issuance to Fund 2027 Spending Another question for the future fund is how its reserves will be invested. “Naturally, we’ll need diversification across risky and safe assets; long-, medium- and short-term investments; overseas and domestic assets; and equities and bonds,” Park said.
朴勋称,政府希望获得高于借款成本的收益,尽管收益次于基金保护公共财政和支持增长的职能。
Park said the government wants to earn more than it pays to borrow, though returns are secondary to the fund’s roles in protecting public finances and supporting growth.
政府的平均借款利率从一个月前的4.1%升至9月的4.25%。韩国央行在7月和8月连续两次会议上加息以抑制通胀,通胀仍高于2%的目标。
The government’s average borrowing rate rose to 4.25% in September from 4.1% a month earlier. The BOK raised its benchmark interest rate at back-to-back meetings in July and August to contain inflation, which remains above its 2% target.
朴某表示,投资重点可更多地放在短期至中期。货币市场基金等极短期产品的收益可能低于政府的借款成本,而跨越数十年的投资可能会使在需要时更难取用资金。
Park said investments could focus more on the short-to-medium term. Very short-term products such as money market funds may earn less than the government’s borrowing costs, while investments stretching over decades could make it harder to access money when needed.
朴某说,官员还需决定是使用现有的公共资金投资池,还是另行委任专业资产管理机构。
Officials will also need to decide whether to use an existing investment pool for public funds or appoint a separate professional asset manager, Park said.
该基金的设立伴随韩国有史以来最大规模的支出计划,该计划将使明年支出增加 12.8%。其针对青年、新增长产业、地区发展和教育的计划支出已纳入该预算。
The establishment of the fund accompanies South Korea’s largest-ever spending plan, which would raise expenditure by 12.8% next year. Its planned outlays for young people, new growth industries, regional development and education are already included in that budget.

政府在 9 月将今年国税收入预测上调至创纪录的 478.6 万亿韩元。半导体利润、特别股息和股票交易活跃有助于提高征收额。
The government in September raised its forecast for this year’s national tax revenue to a record 478.6 trillion won. Semiconductor profits, special dividends and stronger stock trading have helped lift collections.
朴某辩称,维持公共财政健康需要能产生增长的投资,进而带来支持未来优先事项所需的税收。“财政可持续性不能仅靠偿还债务和削减支出来实现,”他说。
Park argued that keeping public finances healthy requires investment that generates growth and, in turn, the tax revenue needed to support future priorities. “Fiscal sustainability is not achieved merely by paying off debt and cutting expenditure,” he said.