根据策略师的说法，韩国债券的反弹可能只是短暂的，因为政府主导的降低波动性措施的效果正在减弱，而对进一步货币政策紧缩的预期正在升温。随着全球债券收益率徘徊在数十年来的高位，Gama Asset Management SA和韩国证券公司（Hana Securities Co.）的策略师们预计，韩国三年期和十年期国债收益率将重新上行，并重新测试上月触及的四年高点。
A rally in South Korean bonds may prove fleeting as the effect of government-led measures to quell volatility fades and expectations of further monetary policy tightening build, according to strategists. With global bond yields hovering around multi-decade highs, strategists at Gama Asset Management SA and Hana Securities Co. are among those expecting Korean three- and 10-year yields to resume their climb and retest the four-year highs reached last month.
令看跌前景雪上加霜的是，韩元掉期显示，韩国央行（BOK）在未来六个月累计加息50个基点的概率约为70%。今年以来，韩国债券一直承压，原因是中东战争推高油价，从而加剧了通胀担忧；与此同时，美国国债收益率飙升也加重了压力，因为交易员押注美联储将进一步加息。尽管通胀仍高于目标水平，且蓬勃发展的半导体和存储芯片产业推动了超出预期的经济增长，首尔仍誓言采取措施遏制收益率上升。
Adding to the bearish outlook, won swaps are pricing in about a 70% chance that the Bank of Korea will raise interest rates by a cumulative 50 basis points over the next six months. South Korean bonds have stayed under pressure this year as the Middle East war fueled inflation concerns through higher oil prices, while surging Treasury yields added to the strain as traders bet on further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Seoul has vowed measures to curb rising yields even as inflation remains above target and the booming semiconductor and memory-chip industries drive stronger-than-expected economic growth.“I am becoming more cautious on Korean bonds,” said Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gama Asset Management SA.
“我对韩国债券变得更加谨慎了，”Gama Asset Management SA的全球宏观投资组合经理拉杰夫·德梅洛（Rajeev De Mello）表示。“通胀仍高于韩国央行的目标，进一步政策紧缩的可能性很大。如果全球债券抛售继续，韩国收益率抵御上行压力将变得越来越困难。”德梅洛预计，韩国十年期国债收益率将回升至约4.6%，这一水平最后出现在去年9月，也是自2022年以来的最高点；而三年期收益率可能从周四的3.98%升至4.1%。
“Inflation remains above the Bank of Korea’s target, and further policy tightening is likely. If the global bond selloff continues, it will become increasingly difficult for Korean yields to resist the upward pressure.”De Mello expects Korean 10-year yields to return to around 4.6%, a level last seen in September and the highest since 2022, while the three-year yield may climb to 4.1% from 3.98% on Thursday.
上月当局警告可能干预市场并将本月计划发行的国债规模削减5万亿韩元后，韩国债券在整个收益率曲线上出现反弹。利率展望现在，交易员认为本月晚些时候的韩国央行利率决议将成为市场的下一个可能触发点。该央行已在连续两次会议上上调借贷成本至3%，以遏制通胀，因为经济增长正在加速。
Korean bonds rebounded across the curve after authorities warned of intervention last month and cut planned notes sales for this month by 5 trillion won .Rate OutlookNow traders see the BOK rate decision later this month as the next probable trigger for the market. The central bank has raised borrowing costs at back-to-back meetings to 3% to curb inflation as growth accelerates.
韩国央行（BOK）在8月发布的六个月点阵图显示，21个点中有10个聚集在3.25%。韩亚证券固定收益策略师朴俊宇表示，在波动加剧的情况下，收益率下降被解读为趋势还为时过早。他预计收益率将在央行11月政策会议前达到峰值，届时他预见在10月22日暂停后将有一次加息。“我认为现在不是买入的时候，但如果收益率重新回到4%以上，再次买入也是值得的，”朴俊宇所说的指的是三年期收益率。
A six-month dot plot released by the BOK in August showed 10 of 21 dots clustered at 3.25%.Park Junwoo, a fixed-income strategist at Hana Securities, said it was premature to interpret falling yields amid heightened volatility as a trend. He expects yields to peak around the central bank’s November policy meeting when he sees a hike after a hold on Oct. 22.“I don’t think now is the time to buy, but it would be worth buying again if it goes back above 4%,” Park said, referring to the three-year yield.
该公司对韩国和美国债券均持减仓态度。但任何收益率的激增都可能引发更多政府干预。得益于半导体行业的税收红利，财政部长李亨日表示，政府可能进一步削减计划中的债务发行，以遏制收益率的过度波动，并进行紧急回购。“等到11月BOK的点阵图出来再买韩国债券也不算晚，”LS证券公司固定收益分析师禹惠英表示，她预计收益率最终将在年底前回落。
The firm is underweight on both Korean and US bonds. But any surge in yields is likely to invite more government intervention. Buoyed by a tax windfall from the semiconductor industry, Finance Minister Lee Hyoung Il has said the government may further cut back planned debt sales to contain excessive moves in yields, and conduct emergency buybacks.“It won’t be too late to wait for the BOK’s dot plot in November” to buy Korean bonds, said Woo Hye-young, a fixed-income analyst at LS Securities Co., who expects yields to ultimately ease into the year-end.
“如果11月的点阵图显示更高水平，我会更加谨慎。”股东锁定：包括SBI基金在内的14家公司将在本周带来价值近3000亿卢比的供应。
“If the November dot plot shows something higher, I’d be more cautious.”Shareholder Lock-Ins: 14 companies, including SBI Funds to bring in supply worth nearly ₹3,000 crore this week