野村证券对韩国债券的前景愈发看好，并增强了对2027年起做多5年期韩国不可交割利率互换合约的信心。
据分析师Albert Leung和Clair Gao在报告中指出，预计5年期韩国不可交割利率互换利率将从目前的4.19%降至3.95%。最新的宏观经济数据进一步印证了韩国经济呈现‘K型’走势的特征：出口表现优于预期，但工业生产乏力；首尔房价涨幅有所放缓，核心CPI增速也出现下降。这些迹象降低了韩国央行在10月加息的可能性。目前外汇市场压力减轻，市场预计美联储10月加息的概率也仅约20%。
Nomura is turning more bullish on South Korean bonds, raising its conviction level on receiving a 5-year Korea non-deliverable interest-rate swap position starting in 2027.
此外，韩国政府计划明年继续减少债券发行规模，并利用财政盈余更频繁地实施大规模债券回购操作。尽管韩国收益率曲线目前仍较为陡峭，但随着韩国央行加息进程的推进，该曲线有望逐步趋于平缓。不过，全球发达经济体利率环境整体疲软，近期表现优异的韩国利率水平未来也有可能向美国利率水平靠拢。
By Hooyeon Kim 5-year NDIRS rate is set to fall to 3.95% from current 4.19%, strategists Albert Leung and Clair Gao write in note The latest macro data reinforced the view of a K-shaped economy: exports beat expectations, while industrial production struggled, growth in Seoul apartment prices moderated, and core CPI slowed Overall, the data reduce the tail risk of an October BOK hike with FX now less of a concern and markets pricing only about a 20% probability of an October Fed rate increase Korea’s government is set to keep reducing bond issuance and conducting larger and higher-frequency debt buybacks using excess tax revenues into next year Korea’s yield curve remains too steep and is likely to gradually flatten as the BOK makes further progress on the hiking cycle Still, the developed-market rates environment remains weak, and some recoupling of Korea rates toward the US after their recent outperformance can’t be ruled out