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韩国央行行长支持韩元进一步升值,誓言维持紧缩政策BOK Governor Backs Further Won Gains, Vows to Keep Policy Tight

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韩国银行总裁申铉松10月13日在曼谷。摄影:Sirachai Arunrugstichai/彭博社Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun Song in Bangkok, on Oct. 13. Photographer: Sirachai Arunrugstichai/Bloomberg

韩国央行行长申炯松表示,韩元进一步升值将是可取的,因为自央行转向紧缩货币政策以来,韩元大幅升值已提升了家庭购买力。

Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun Song said further gains in the won would be desirable, pointing to stronger household purchasing power from the currency’s substantial appreciation since the central bank shifted to tighter monetary policy.

“在我们确信通胀将及时收敛到目标水平之前,我们将维持紧缩的货币政策立场,”申炯松周二在曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织和世界银行年会期间,与国际货币基金组织亚洲及太平洋部门主管克里希纳·斯里尼瓦桑进行讨论时如是说。

“We will keep a restrictive stance of monetary policy until we’re confident that inflation will converge to our target, and in a timely way,” Shin said Tuesday during a discussion with Krishna Srinivasan, director of the International Monetary Fund’s Asia and Pacific Department, at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok.

韩元走强使经济平衡向国内经济倾斜,有助于缓解申炯松所描述的“K形”经济中的差距。他补充称,通胀、汇率和金融稳定均指向同一方向的政策取向,使得韩国央行面临的权衡比平时更容易。

A stronger won has shifted the balance toward the domestic economy, helping ease disparities in what Shin described as a “K-shaped” economy. Inflation, the exchange rate and financial stability all point policy in the same direction, making the trade-offs facing the BOK less difficult than usual, he added.

这些言论发表于韩国央行10月22日的政策决策之前,此前央行在7月和8月连续两次上调基准利率25个基点,将基准利率提升至3%。申炯松曾表示,随着政策制定者评估更高借贷成本的影响,进一步紧缩将是渐进的。

The remarks came ahead of the BOK’s policy decision Oct. 22, following consecutive quarter-point increases in July and August that brought the benchmark rate to 3%. Shin previously signaled that further tightening would be gradual as policymakers assess the impact of higher borrowing costs.

申炯松还表示,韩国央行将在累积至少一年经验后,审查其于前任行长李昌镛任期内2月份引入的六个月点阵图。他补充称,尚未设定时间表,任何审查将在明年或之后进行。

Shin also said the BOK would review its six-month dot plot, introduced in February under former Governor Rhee Chang Yong, after accumulating at least a year of experience. No timetable has been set, and any review would take place next year or later, he added.

这些预测有助于传达政策制定者的思路,申炯松称。8月时,这些预测使韩国央行能够在宣布利率上调的同时提供其货币政策反应斜率的参考,他表示这对长期收益率有积极影响。但他强调,指引仍需保持灵活性,以应对新信息。

The projections have helped communicate policymakers’ thinking, Shin said. In August, they allowed the BOK to provide a sense of the slope of its monetary policy response alongside the rate increase, which he said had a beneficial effect on long-term yields. Still, guidance needs to preserve flexibility to respond to new information.

“我们正努力寻找前瞻性指引过多与过少之间的恰当平衡点,”申炯松说。

“We’re trying to look for exactly that sweet spot between forward guidance too much and too little,” Shin said.

这种灵活性可能会证明很重要,因为政策制定者正在应对塑造国内经济前景的相互竞争的力量。人工智能热潮不仅抵消了中东战争的拖累,但这两种力量正在叠加,加剧了通胀,申表示。更强的需求正在加剧来自冲突的成本压力,导致总体和核心通胀率在一段时间内可能仍然高于韩国银行2%的目标。

That flexibility may prove important as policymakers navigate competing forces shaping the domestic economic outlook. The AI boom is more than offsetting the drag from the Middle East war, but the two forces are combining to intensify inflation, Shin said. Stronger demand is adding to the cost pressures from the conflict, leaving both headline and core inflation likely to remain above the BOK’s 2% target for some time.

国际货币基金组织周二将其对韩国今年经济增长的预测上调至3.3%,较7月提高了0.7个百分点,因为由半导体带动的需求超过了战争的负面影响。这与韩国银行的最新预测相吻合,该央行在8月份将其2026年增长预测从2.6%大幅上调至3.3%。国际货币基金组织还将其2027年的预测上调至2.8%。

The IMF on Tuesday raised its forecast for South Korea’s growth this year to 3.3%, up 0.7 percentage point from July, as semiconductor-led demand outweighed the war’s negative effects. That matches the BOK’s latest projection after the central bank in August sharply raised its 2026 growth forecast to 3.3% from 2.6%. The IMF also lifted its 2027 projection to 2.8%.

韩国9月份出口较去年同期翻了一倍多,达到创纪录的1209亿美元,这得益于半导体出货量激增263%。通胀率从8月份的3.1%降至2.9%,但仍高于央行的目标。

South Korea’s exports more than doubled in September from a year earlier to a record $120.9 billion, powered by a 263% surge in semiconductor shipments. Inflation eased to 2.9% from 3.1% in August, remaining above the central bank’s target.

申在接掌韩国银行之前曾在国际清算银行工作超过十年,他表示,紧缩政策也应减缓金融脆弱性的积累。韩国银行的金融脆弱性指数正在上升,但他预计该指数将达到一个不会引起警报的水平。

Shin, who spent more than a decade at the Bank for International Settlements before taking the helm of the BOK, said tighter policy should also slow the buildup of financial vulnerabilities. The central bank’s financial vulnerability index is rising, but he expects it to peak at a level that would not cause alarm.