—— 这是CNBC为中国中央电视台制作的2026年10月7日财经新闻报道脚本。
– This is the script of CNBC's financial news report for China's CCTV on October 07, 2026.
联合海事信息中心的数据显示，过去一个月里，近20艘商船（多为油轮）在通过霍尔木兹海峡、波斯湾和阿曼近海时遭到袭击。该中心由多国海军联盟设立，旨在为商船提供安全建议。
Data from the Joint Maritime Information Center, established by a multi national naval coalition to provide safety advice to commercial vessels, shows that nearly 20 commercial ships, mostly oil tankers, were attacked over the past month while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, and offshore Oman.
国际海事组织的数据进一步显示，自2月28日以来，至少有93艘船只遭遇袭击，导致24名船员死亡。
International Maritime Organization figures further reveal that since February 28th, at least 93 vessels have suffered attacks, resulting in the deaths of 24 crew members.
这种高涨的安全风险迫使船东提供更高的风险津贴以留住船员。据《金融时报》报道，航行于霍尔木兹海峡的油轮船长现在月薪可高达10万美元，外加每次过境5万美元的奖金。普通船员的收入是其正常薪酬的四到六倍。相比之下，船长的标准月薪平均约为1.5万美元，普通船员仅为1500美元。
Such heightened security risks are forcing shipowners to offer elevated risk premiums to retain crew members. According to a report by the Financial Times, tanker captains navigating the Strait of Hormuz can now earn monthly compensation reaching up to 100,000 dollars, alongside an additional 50,000 dollar bonus per transit. Rank and file crew members are receiving four to six times their typical pay. By comparison, standard monthly salaries average roughly 15,000 dollars for captains and just 1,500 dollars for ordinary crew members.
然而，更高的船员薪酬远非穿越高风险水域的船东面临的唯一成本负担。不断攀升的保险费和燃料油费用正给油轮船队带来额外的运营压力。
Yet higher crew compensation is far from the only cost burden facing shipowners crossing high risk waters. Escalating insurance premiums and rising bunker fuel expenses are placing additional operational pressure on tanker fleets.
目前，通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮船东必须支付单次航次船体保险费，相当于船舶总价值的6%至10%。对于一艘超大型原油运输船（VLCC）而言，单次航次保费可超过2000万美元。同时，最新市场数据显示，这些运输船常用的重油价格已达每公吨686美元，较去年同期上涨67%。
At present, tanker owners transiting the Strait of Hormuz must pay single trip hull insurance premiums equivalent to 6% to 10% of the vessel's overall value. For a Very Large Crude Carrier, a single voyage premium can top 20 million dollars. Meanwhile, latest market figures indicate heavy fuel oil commonly used by these carriers has reached 686 dollars per metric ton, up 67% from the same period last year.
COREY RANSLEM 首席执行官 Dryad Global"保险通常滞后于事态发展，这可能需要数周甚至数月才能落实。从我们了解的情况来看，船员不愿穿越高风险区域，因此我认为，仅从简报来看，情况正变得更加棘手。" 目前，作为主要国际油价基准的伦敦布伦特原油期货继续徘徊在每桶100美元左右，年初至今涨幅超过60%。
COREY RANSLEMChief Executive OfficerDryad Global "Insurance usually is trailing behind the situation, it could take potentially weeks or months for that to happen. From the perspective of what we understand, it is where crews do not want to transit through the higher risk regions, so it is, I think, becoming a little bit more difficult from just the brief." Currently, London Brent crude futures, a primary international oil benchmark, continue to hover around 100 dollars per barrel, posting a year to date gain of over 60%.
行业分析师指出，如果市场参与者认为原油运输能永久依赖改道、替代港口和应急储备释放，油价本应有意义回落。然而，只要航运瓶颈持续存在，实物原油市场就必须依赖临时变通措施来维持供应流动。随着产油国和消费国均逼近可用政策工具的极限，运营缓冲正在迅速收窄。
Industry analysts observe that if market participants believed crude transport could permanently rely on rerouting, alternative ports, and emergency reserve releases, oil prices should have pulled back meaningfully. However, so long as shipping bottlenecks persist, the physical crude market must rely on temporary workarounds to sustain flow. With both producing and consuming nations approaching the limits of their available policy tools, operational buffers are rapidly narrowing.
DAVID FYFE 首席经济学家|Argus"到目前为止，行业一直能够依靠几项措施来应对霍尔木兹海峡原油供应短缺的问题。麻烦在于库存水平变得非常非常紧张，如果这种中断持续恶化至年底，我们可能会看到库存接近最低运营水平，这将对价格构成极强的利多支撑。"
DAVID FYFEChief Economist|Argus "The industry up to now has been able to rely on several things to try and work around this shortage of crude coming out of the Strait of Hormuz. The trouble is that inventory levels are becoming very very tight, and if this disruption worsens through the end of the year, we could see stocks getting close to minimum operating levels, which would be incredibly bullish for prices."