
伊·梅利欧洲日益频繁的热浪、野火及洪水正促使各国政府加大对气候韧性基础设施的投入,这为工业企业开辟了极具潜力的新市场。
By Sofia Gerace and Chloé Meley Europe’s worsening heat waves, wildfires and floods are prompting governments to increase spending on climate-resilient infrastructure, opening a lucrative new market for industrial companies.
施耐德电气、ABB以及西门子等行业设备制造商有望从全球范围内加固建筑与电网以抵御极端天气的趋势中获益。据彭博情报统计,未来十年内,欧盟及英国政府为提升基础设施气候韧性而投入的资金总额预计将达约5000亿欧元(约合5610亿美元)。
Industrial equipment makers including Schneider Electric SE, ABB Ltd., and Siemens AG stand to benefit from a rush to harden buildings and grids against increasingly extreme weather. EU and UK government investment specifically to make infrastructure more resilient is expected to total about €500 billion ($561 billion) over the next decade, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
近年来,数据中心建设持续推动着制冷、电力及电网设备需求的增长。而气候适应措施则有望成为另一大增长动力——相关投资将重点用于数据中心所采用的多项技术,包括电力稳定性提升、电网加固以及建筑能源自动化管理系统等。
Demand for cooling, electrical and grid equipment has been driven by data-center construction in recent years. Climate adaptation is set to provide another growth driver, with investment targeting many of the same technologies used in data centers, including electrical resilience, grid reinforcement and systems to automate building energy use.
“工业领域因人工智能相关需求而表现优异,不过目前有声音担忧此类需求增长势头可能有所放缓,”彭博情报分析师格蕾丝·奥斯本在接受采访时指出,“而气候适应措施则能进一步催生新的需求。”此前,施耐德电气因人工智能热潮带动数据中心设备需求激增而上调了盈利预期;欧洲的ABB与西门子同样从这一行业繁荣中获益良多。
“Industrials have done phenomenally well from AI-related demand, and there are murmurings about whether that demand is slightly tempering out,” BI analyst Grace Osborne said in an interview. “Climate adaptation adds a layer of demand.”Schneider Electric raised its profit guidance after an artificial intelligence-driven spending spree drove unprecedented demand for its data-center equipment. European peers ABB and Siemens have also benefited from the boom.
“每当市场出现数据中心建设放缓的担忧时,这些公司股价就会出现大幅下跌,”晨星公司分析师马修·多宁说道。“实际上,很多相关设备都可以被重新用于其他类型的基础设施建设。”
“Whenever there’s concerns on the data center build-out slowing down, these companies do sell off very materially,” said Matthew Donen, analyst at Morningstar. “The reality is that a lot of the equipment can be repurposed in different infrastructure buildings.”
花旗集团分析师马丁·威尔基指出,今年夏季的极端高温堪称一次“警钟”;自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来,人们对能源安全的担忧便持续升温。“当能源成本长期居高不下,同时高温又对人们的健康造成威胁——无论是在住宅、医院、学校还是养老院——人们终于意识到必须采取行动了。”相关机遇广泛存在于建筑与电网领域。目前欧洲的建筑改造主要侧重于减排,但随着气温不断升高,对制冷、通风及自动化控制系统的需求也日益迫切。
This year’s summer was a “wake-up call” on heat, while concern about energy security has been building since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Citi analyst Martin Wilkie said. “When you get the combination of structurally higher energy costs and heat causing problems for health, whether it’s in people’s homes, in hospitals, in schools or in care homes, there’s a recognition that something needs to happen around that.”The opportunities span buildings and power grids. Europe’s building upgrades have largely focused on cutting emissions, though rising temperatures are now driving demand for cooling, ventilation and automated controls.
据BI研究公司分析,阿尔法·拉瓦尔公司和蒙特斯集团等企业有望从中受益,它们的制冷技术早已随着数据中心行业的蓬勃发展而得到广泛应用。
That could benefit companies such as Alfa Laval AB and Munters Group AB, whose cooling technologies are already riding the data-center boom, according to BI research.
此外,日益频繁的野火与洪水也进一步加大了改造老旧电网、提升其抵御极端天气能力的压力。
More frequent wildfires and floods are also increasing pressure to strengthen aging electricity networks against extreme weather.
人工智能数据中心以及建筑、交通与工业领域的电气化进程虽是电力需求增长的两个独立驱动力,但两者都需要对同一套电网系统进行投资。
AI data centers and the broader electrification of buildings, transport and industry are separate sources of power demand, though both require investment in the same electricity grids.
“对施耐德电气、ABB和西门子而言,许多技术其实是共通的,”威尔基说道。“它们销售的断路器、变压器以及电力管理优化软件,既适用于数据中心、电网,也适用于各类工业设施。”今年7月,施耐德电气已以3.5亿美元收购了风险情报提供商AiDash,从而将野火与风暴风险管理功能纳入其智能电网业务体系。此外,该公司还计划斥资约226亿美元收购工业软件企业PTC公司,以此进一步强化自身的人工智能实力。
“For Schneider, ABB and Siemens, a lot of the technology is the same,” Wilkie said. “They’re selling breakers, transformers and control software that optimize power management, whether it’s in a data center, on the grid or in an industrial facility.”Schneider Electric already acquired risk intelligence provider AiDash for $350 million in July, which adds wildfire- and storm-risk management to its existing smart-grid offering. It also doubled down in AI with its agreement to buy industrial software firm PTC Inc. for about $22.6 billion, stepping up its AI capabilities.
根据毕马威(BI)的研究,有64家欧洲公司因气候变化相关成本的上升而有望从中受益,这些公司包括西门子(Siemens)、ABB和Munters等。在过去五年中,它们的年均表现优于斯托克斯欧洲600指数(Stoxx Europe 600 Index);截至今年8月,它们的年均表现仍优于该指数13个百分点。
BI research shows 64 European companies positioned to benefit from rising climate-related costs — including Siemens, ABB, and Munters — outperformed the equal-weight Stoxx Europe 600 Index by 13 percentage points annually over the past five years, and 2.5 percentage points through August.
欧盟估计,到2050年,每年需要投入约700亿欧元用于气候适应项目,以降低因气候变化带来的风险。为此,欧盟正在将支出重点从灾害应对转向灾害预防。
The EU estimates it will need about €70 billion a year in climate-adaptation investment through 2050 to reduce exposure to growing risks, as the bloc shifts spending from disaster response to damage prevention.
这些投资已经带来了大量订单:意大利的Prysmian SpA公司赢得了价值9.1亿欧元的希腊岛屿海底电缆及陆上电缆铺设合同;法国的Enedis公司则获得了价值5.5亿欧元的法国电网现代化改造合同。
That’s already translating into big orders. Italy’s Prysmian SpA won a €910 million Greek-island interconnection contract to install submarine and land-based cables, while France’s Enedis won a €550 million contract to modernize the French power grid.
预计私人资本将在气候适应项目中发挥越来越重要的作用,同时公共资金也将提供支持。真正的挑战在于如何尽快将这些资金投入使用。
Private capital is expected to play a growing role in climate adaptation, coupled with public funding. The challenge will be deploying the funds fast enough.
据毕马威称,欧盟的“凝聚力基金”(Cohesion Fund)用于支持某些成员国的气候适应项目,2021至2026年的预算为178亿欧元,但截至目前仅使用了25亿欧元,剩余资金预计将在2027至2029年间拨付。
The EU’s Cohesion Fund, which supports climate adaptation project by certain member states, had a budget of €17.8 billion for 2021 to 2026, though only €2.5 billion of that has been spent to date, with the remainder expected to be released between 2027 and 2029, BI said.
毕马威的奥斯本(Osborne)表示:“资金分配的速度是一个亟待解决的问题。”
“The speed at which that capital is allocated is a challenge,” BI’s Osborne said.