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加拿大与美国的贸易战会如何影响加拿大消费者How the Canada-U.S. trade war could affect Canadian consumers

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“大多数商品应该仍能买到,不过某些品牌、型号或规格的产品可能会从市场上消失,”蒙特利尔一位研究供应链与商业技术管理的副教授说道。(格雷厄姆·休斯/加拿大通讯社)加美贸易战不仅改变了加拿大人对本国的看法,还在一定程度上重新凝聚了全国人民的团结意识,并深刻影响了联邦及各省的选举走向。

'Most goods should remain available, although some brands, models or specifications may disappear from the market,' according to an associate professor in supply chain and business technology management in Montreal. (Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press) The Canada-U.S. trade war has reshaped Canadians' view of their country, somewhat rekindled coast-to-coast-to-coast unity and dominated federal and provincial elections.

一年多来,这场贸易战始终萦绕在加拿大人的心头。就在我们以为与这个曾经的盟友兼对手能很快达成协议时,却迎来了新一轮更为严苛的关税措施、进口禁令及反制关税。

For more than a year it has been steeped in the national psyche , and just when we thought a deal was near with our friend-to-foe southern neighbour, we instead face a new — steeper — round of tariffs, bans and counter-tariffs.

9月8日,在美国对价值276亿加元的加拿大商品加征50%的新关税后,加拿大开始对美国商品实施新一轮报复性关税。随后,美国于上月底又对加拿大的多种进口商品实施禁令,涉及酒精饮料、乳制品副产品、糖蜜以及摩托车等。

Canada began imposing a new round of retaliatory levies on U.S. goods on Sept. 8, after the United States imposed new 50 per cent tariffs on $27.6 billion worth of Canadian goods. The U.S. then responded late last month with a set of bans on Canadian imports on some alcoholic drinks, dairy byproducts, molasses and motorcycles, among others.

那么,这场贸易争端的最新进展将如何进一步影响加拿大经济?这种被迫调整的局面能否帮助我们更快地实现贸易伙伴多元化?又有哪些商品可能会变得难以买到呢?

So, how could the latest in the dispute continue to reshape the Canadian economy? Could the scramble to adapt help us diversify trade partners more quickly? And, what products, if any, could become more difficult to access?

CBC新闻采访了四位供应链与零售业领域的专家,试图了解未来几个月哪些商品价格可能上涨,消费者又需要做出哪些消费习惯上的改变。

CBC News spoke to four experts in supply chains and retail to get a sense of what products could go up in price and how consumers may have to change their habits in the next few months.

专家们指出,上个月两国间的贸易摩擦进一步升级——先是加美未能达成新贸易协议,美国随即提高关税;接着加拿大实施反制关税,美国又全面禁止部分加拿大商品进口。这种连锁反应带来的后果或许不会直接体现为货架空空如也,而是体现为物价上涨、商品选择减少以及部分商品需要更久的等待时间。

They say the escalation between the two countries last month — which involved the U.S. raising tariffs after Canada and the U.S. failed to sign a new trade deal, then Canada imposing counter-tariffs, then the U.S. imposing full-scale bans — may be felt less in empty store shelves than in higher prices, fewer choices and longer waits for some products. "Most goods should remain available, although some brands, models or specifications may disappear from the market," said Xiaodon Pan, an associate professor in supply chain and business technology management at Concordia University in Montreal.

“大多数商品应该仍能买到,不过某些品牌、型号或规格的产品可能会从市场上消失,”蒙特利尔康考迪亚大学供应链与商业技术管理系副教授潘晓东说道。

Trump says 'very bad' Canada is being 'taught a little lesson' as trade action escalates Canada scores a dairy win on U.S. soil as farmers grumble about Trump's trade war

特朗普称“表现糟糕”的加拿大正在被“好好教训一番”,贸易摩擦持续升级加拿大在美国本土赢得乳制品贸易胜利,但农民们却对特朗普发起的贸易战怨声载道美国即将对加拿大酒类、乳清、糖蜜及摩托车实施进口禁令,相关数据如下这些反制关税主要针对那些存在加拿大替代产品的品类,税率分别为15%、25%和50%。

The incoming U.S. import bans on Canadian alcohol, whey, molasses and motorcycles, by the numbers The counter-tariffs are meant to focus on products where Canadian alternatives are available, and range from 15 to 25 to 50 per cent.

受影响的领域包括钢铁与铝制品、乳制品、家用电器、农业机械、纸浆与纸张、塑料及电子产品——涵盖各类制成品以及用于生产其他商品的零部件。此外,针对美国汽车的关税也依然有效。

They cover areas such as steel and aluminum, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, plastics and electronics — and include finished products as well as some components used to make other goods. Tariffs on U.S. automobiles are also still in place.

北卡罗来纳州的一项分析指出,由于唐纳德·特朗普总统对从加拿大进口的北方漂白硫酸盐针叶木浆征收50%的关税,美国市场上的卫生纸可能会变得“价格更贵、质地更粗糙”。加拿大经济仍具韧性,但美国贸易战的影响日益显现9月29日 | 时长2分钟:面对美国实施的严厉关税措施,加拿大经济仍表现出一定韧性,但针对多种加拿大产品的新一轮进口禁令正给经济带来新的压力。

One analysis out of North Carolina found that toilet paper in the U.S. could become " more expensive, less soft " because of President Donald Trump's 50 per cent levy on northern bleached softwood kraft imported from Canada. Canada's economy still resilient, but U.S. trade war taking its toll September 29|Duration 2:00Canada's economy has shown resilience in the face of punishing U.S. tariffs, but new import bans on a range of Canadian products are creating further drag.

德勤会计师事务所已将加拿大明年的经济增长预期下调了20%。“物价正在上涨,”商业学教授指出不过在加拿大国内,加拿大零售委员会的马特·普瓦里耶表示,自8月份加美贸易协议谈判破裂、关税政策即将实施的消息传出后,各商店店主便开始大量囤货。他表示,这些储备商品至少能在几个月内防止物价出现大幅上涨。

Accounting firm Deloitte has lowered its growth forecast for next year by 20 per cent. 'Prices are going up,' business prof says Back at home though, Matt Poirier of the Retail Council of Canada says shop owners began stocking up as soon as they knew tariffs were coming after the trade deal fell through between Canada and the U.S. in August. The bulk of goods could prevent prices from significantly rising for at least couple months, he said.

“他们一直在加班加点,试图寻找国内或全球范围内的其他供应源,”普瓦里耶说道,“不过供应链的重新调整确实需要一段时间。”

"They've been working overtime to find either alternate sources of supply, domestic or global," Poirier said. "But it does take a while for those supply chains to reroute."

虽然关税带来的影响可能需要一段时间才会显现,但等到今年年底库存耗尽时,其影响仍可能十分显著。

While the impacts of the tariffs could take a bit of time, they could still be significant once those inventory supplies dwindle by the end of the year.

安大略省伦敦市西安大略大学艾维商学院教授弗雷泽·约翰逊指出,零售商短期内并不希望因涨价而惊扰消费者、导致客源流失,不过“从中长期来看,物价必然上涨。”

Fraser Johnson, a professor at Ivey Business School at Western University in London, Ont., said retailers won't want to shock consumers and lose business in the short term, but, "in the medium to long term, prices are going up."

约翰逊解释称,虽然美国产品在其他地区也有替代品,但美国商品成本的上升最终也会促使商家提高其他国家同类产品的售价。

Johnson explained that while alternatives to U.S. products exist elsewhere, the increase of costs of U.S. goods will eventually lead businesses to boost prices on models from other countries as well.

康考迪亚大学的潘教授也持相同观点。她指出,以服装和化妆品为例,虽然这类商品有较多国际替代品可选,但消费者很可能会发现这些领域的“价格上涨,可选品牌、款式及色号也变少了。”

Pan, of Concordia University, agrees. She said that while clothing and cosmetics, for example, may have more international alternatives, consumers are likely to start seeing "higher prices and fewer brands, styles, shades," in those areas.

专家们表示,户外装备爱好者也可能遭遇类似情况。各位“户外风穿搭”爱好者可要小心了。家电与电子产品无论是美泰克、通用电气、弗里吉戴尔,还是高端品牌沃尔夫的炉灶,美国企业在北美家电市场都占据着重要份额——但在加拿大,这一局面可能很快会发生改变。

Outdoor gear fanatics could see similar phenomena, the experts said. Watch out, gorpcore . Appliances and electronics Whether it's Maytag, GE, Frigidaire or high-end Wolf stoves, American companies take up a significant share the North American appliance market — but in Canada that could change very soon.

目前,美国产冰箱、冰柜、灶具、洗衣机和烘干机以及洗碗机零部件均需缴纳25%的新附加税。

There's a new 25 per cent surtax on U.S. refrigerators, freezers, cooking ranges, washer and dryers and dishwasher parts.

正如约翰逊所言,虽然市面上已有大量韩国和中国产的同类产品可供选择,但随着零售商试图弥补成本损失,这些产品的价格也可能随之上涨。

While there are many South Korean and Chinese alternatives already readily available, prices for those products could go up as well as retailers try to recoup lost costs, as Johnson mentioned.

对于已经购买了美国品牌家电的用户而言,后续维修可能会遇到些麻烦。

As for parts for people who already own appliances from American brands, that could get a little tricky.

“某些特定的控制板、泵、传感器或维修配件可能几乎没有直接可用的替代品,”康考迪亚大学的潘教授说道。她指出,电子产品和家具的情况也大同小异。会出现供应短缺的情况吗?建筑材料领域的情况开始变得复杂起来。

"A specific control board, pump, sensor or repair component may have very few direct alternatives," said Pan of Concordia University. She says the same goes for electronics and furniture. What about shortages? Construction materials are where things start to get more dicey.

加拿大从美国进口大量此类材料,包括金属、塑料及泡沫建筑材料、涂料、粘合剂、水泥制品以及各种预制木构件。这些都属于体积较大的商品,而两国共享的边境则为运输提供了便利条件。

Canada buys a lot of those from the U.S. — things like metal, plastic and foam building materials, paints, coats and adhesive, cement products and types of prefabricated wood. They're bulky goods that our shared border makes it easy to transport.

蒙特利尔麦吉尔大学供应链管理领域的詹姆斯·麦吉尔讲席教授赛巴尔·雷指出,建筑行业很可能面临原材料短缺的问题。

That's one industry facing possible shortages, says Saibal Ray, the James McGill Chair professor for supply chain management at McGill University in Montreal.

雷还表示,由于对钢铁和铝制品征收关税,“汽车零部件行业也可能出现供应紧张的情况”。

Car parts could be another, due to levies on steel and aluminum, Ray said, as "availability might be an issue."

约翰逊对此表示认同。“如果你打算进行大额消费,或者正在实施房屋翻新工程,那么尽早锁定价格显然是明智之举,”他说道。

Johnson agrees. "If you're thinking about making a major purchase; if you're going through a home renovation — buying and locking in your prices earlier rather than later makes a lot of sense," he said.

去年,在加利福尼亚州欧申赛德的黑瘟疫酿酒厂,装满精酿啤酒的铝制易拉罐正在出厂。(迈克·布莱克/路透社)潘指出,受到影响的并不仅仅是成品。在最终成为汽车零部件或食品容器之前,原材料往往需要在两国边境多次往返运输。她以用于装装汽水和啤酒的铝制易拉罐为例作了说明。

Aluminum cans are shown after being filled with craft beer during a production run at Black Plague Brewery in Oceanside, Calif., last year. (Mike Blake/Reuters) Again, it's not just finished products affected here. Source materials may cross the border several times before becoming, say, a car part or food container, Pan explained. She gave the example of aluminum cans for soda and beer.

随着贸易战持续,美国对加拿大进口摩托车、乳制品及酒类产品实施的禁令正式生效。

U.S. bans on imported Canadian motorcycle, dairy, alcohol products take effect as trade war drags on

她介绍道,这些铝制易拉罐所用的铝材大多由加拿大生产,但实际加工制造环节往往是在美国完成的。

Canada produces the aluminum for much of those, but the actual manufacturing is often completed in the U.S., she said.

“由于重建相关生产能力需要耗费大量时间,即便两国间的相互依赖关系尚未发生实质性变化,关税也早已推高了相关成本,”潘说道。她指出,除了成本因素外,法规限制也是各国寻求多元化贸易伙伴时必须面对的障碍。

"Because those capabilities take time to replace, tariffs can raise costs long before the underlying interdependence changes," Pan said. She said it's not just costs, but regulations are another hurdle to diversifying trading partners.

电梯行业同样是体现加美两国相互依存关系的典型例子。目前北美地区虽已形成了统一的产品标准、技术规范以及检测认证体系,但如果欧盟能进一步与这些标准接轨,欧洲生产商向加拿大出口产品也将变得更为便利。

Elevators are another example Pan gave, of Canada-U.S. interdependence. There are North American "product standards, technical specifications, testing and certification," but if the European Union closer aligns with those standards, that would help producers in Europe more easily sell to Canada.

同样,约翰逊指出,“企业间交易”的成本在转嫁给消费者之前会先上升,但这些成本最终都会产生连锁效应;由于当前贸易争端的不可预测性,很难准确判断这些额外成本何时会影响到企业的最终利润。

Similarly, Johnson says "business-to-business" costs will go up before they hit consumers, but all of that has a trickle-down effect and it's hard to predict the timing of when those extra costs could hit the bottom line because of how unpredictable these trade disputes have been.

“最终,所有的贸易战都会结束,”他说道。他还指出,正是这种不确定性正在影响加拿大的中小型企业。

"Eventually, all trade wars end," he said, noting the uncertainty is what's impacting small to medium-sized Canadians businesses right now.

“我不知道具体何时会结束,但我确信总有一天问题会得到解决,我们也能重新恢复正常生活。”食品价格方面是否存在“一线希望”呢?

"I don't know when, but I do know that at some point this is going to get resolved and we'll be able to … get on with our lives." Is there a 'silver lining' in food prices?

专家们表示,相比其他商品,食品尤其是时令农产品的囤货或价格锁定要困难得多。此外,导致成本上升的因素不仅有贸易战,还有美国对伊朗采取军事行动后飙升的油价。

What's more difficult to stock up on or lock in on prices is food, especially seasonal produce, the experts said. Plus, it's not just the trade war increasing costs, but skyrocketing oil prices due to the U.S.'s war on Iran, too.

不过,最新一轮美国关税措施以及加拿大的反制关税并未涉及农产品。

But produce isn't really covered in the latest round of U.S. tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs.

今年8月,加拿大针对美国的关税措施实施了50%的报复性关税,此后美国直接禁止进口加拿大的酒类、乳制品、乳清制品以及糖蜜和糖加工产品。不过美国也特意避开了那些加拿大生产商无法提供的商品。

The U.S. has straight up banned Canadian alcohol, dairy and whey products, as well as molasses and sugar processing items, after Canada had retaliated against U.S. levies in August, with 50 per cent levies on each of those, but it made sure not to surtax items that aren't already available from Canadian producers.

加拿大魁北克省圣布莱斯-苏里谢利厄的一家奶牛场里的荷斯坦奶牛。(格雷厄姆·休斯/路透社)加拿大独立杂货商联合会负责政策与倡导事务的高级副总裁加里·桑兹表示,他认为加拿大的食品供应商能够顺利用本国产品替代美国产品。

Holstein cows at a dairy farm in Saint-Blaise-sur-Richelieu, Que. (Graham Hughes/Reuters) Gary Sands, the senior vice president of policy and advocacy for the Canadian Federation of Independent Grocers, says he believes Canadian food providers won't have trouble replacing U.S. goods with Canadian ones.

“这件事也有好的一面,”桑兹说道。他预计,受最新一轮关税措施影响,会有更多加拿大产品和供应商获得发展契机。

"There's a silver lining to this," Sands said, explaining that he expects even more Canadian products and suppliers to get a boost as a result of the latest round of tariffs.

他补充说,目前该联合会的会员企业已经发现,选择购买加拿大产品的消费者比例提升了约20%。

Already, CFIG members have seen a roughly 20 per cent rise in consumers purchasing Canadian products, he said.

“我在这里工作了26年,从未见过这种情况。这绝对是一种长期性的变化,”桑兹说道。

"I've been here for 26 years. I've never seen anything like this. It's definitely a permanent shift," Sands said.

所以,潘和瑞说,消费者在未来几个月可能会看到零售格局发生变化,品牌和具体型号都会有所调整,也许这最终能逐渐减少加拿大对美国商品的依赖。"更广泛的教训是,深度一体化同时创造了效率和相互脆弱性,"潘说。

So, while consumers could see the retail landscape shift over the next few months, with changes in brands and specific models, maybe just maybe it could continue to lessen Canada's reliance on U.S. goods, Pan and Ray said. "The broader lesson is that deep integration creates efficiency and mutual vulnerability at the same time," said Pan.