根据NBC南佛罗里达州/Telemund Station Group的一项新民意调查，共和党人拜伦·多纳尔兹在佛罗里达州州长竞选中比民主党人大卫·乔利领先7个百分点，而共和党参议员阿什利·穆迪在与民主党挑战者安吉·尼克松的比赛中领先10个百分点。来自该州西南角的国会议员多纳尔兹在民意调查中的支持率为48%，而乔利的支持率为41%，在这场唐纳德兹拥有压倒性的经济优势的竞选中。
Republican Byron Donalds holds a 7-percentage-point advantage over Democrat David Jolly in the Florida governor’s race, according to a new NBC South Florida/Telemundo Station Group poll, while Republican Sen. Ashley Moody is up by 10 points in her matchup against Democratic challenger Angie Nixon. Donalds, a congressman from the southwest corner of the state, is at 48% in the poll, compared with Jolly’s 41%, in a race in which Donalds has had a commanding financial advantage. (That advantage is just inside the poll’s margin of error, but Donalds has the edge in most of the range of possibilities.)
(That优势仅在民意调查的误差范围内，但多纳尔兹在大多数可能性中都具有优势。）穆迪在参议院竞选中的支持率为50%，而尼克松的支持率为40%。尼克松是一位与美国民主社会主义联盟的候选人，在8月份出人意料地击败民主党人亚历山大·温德曼（Alexander Vindman）后进入大选。这一结果公布之际，民主党对2026年大选普遍持乐观态度，公开民意调查显示，该党今年将在一些典型的红色州的竞选变成了竞争性的竞选。
Moody is at 50% in the Senate race, compared with 40% for Nixon, a Democratic Socialists of America-aligned candidate who got into the general election after a surprise primary victory over Democrat Alexander Vindman in August. The results come amid broad Democratic optimism about the 2026 elections, with public polling showing the party making races in some typically red states into competitive contests this year.
这项民意调查表明，其他地方的这种明显势头有限。该民意调查还对该州极具影响力的西班牙裔选民群体进行了概述，他们主要聚集在南佛罗里达州。2024年，唐纳德·特朗普以约11个百分点的优势赢得了拉美裔人口较多的迈阿密戴德县，这在该州长期倾向民主党的地区发生了重大逆转。2020年，乔·拜登以7个百分点的优势赢得了该县。
This poll suggests limits to that apparent momentum in other places. The poll also took a snapshot of the state’s hugely influential bloc of Hispanic voters, largely congregated in South Florida. In 2024, Donald Trump won Hispanic-heavy Miami-Dade County by roughly 11 points, a significant reversal in a part of the state that had long been Democratic-leaning. Joe Biden won the county by 7 points in 2020.
但现在，佛罗里达州的西班牙裔选民--包括大量古巴、尼加拉瓜、洪都拉斯和哥伦比亚人口--似乎正在远离特朗普，尽管其他备受瞩目的共和党候选人在西班牙裔选民中遥遥领先。调查显示，在西班牙裔选民中，唐纳森的支持率领先乔利48%-43%，而穆迪的支持率领先尼克松47%-40%。然而，特朗普的工作表现评级却处于低位，49%的人不赞成他的工作表现，而45%的人表示赞成。
But now, Florida Hispanic voters — including large Cuban, Nicaraguan, Honduran and Colombian populations — appear to be swinging back away from Trump, even as other high-profile Republican candidates hold comfortable leads among Hispanic voters. Donalds holds a 48%-43% lead over Jolly among Hispanic voters, according to the survey, while Moody is up 47%-40% over Nixon. Trump’s job performance rating, however, is underwater, with 49% disapproving of his job performance, compared with 45% who approve.
总体而言，48%的佛罗里达州可能选民赞成特朗普的工作表现，48%的人不赞成。在2024年特朗普在佛罗里达州拉美裔人口中获得增长之前，民主党人通常以舒适的优势赢得了该州的人口。民主党人认为，最近在佛罗里达州的特别选举胜利表明，该党已经开始赢回西班牙裔选民的选票，部分原因是特朗普积极的移民执法政策。
Overall, 48% of all Florida likely voters approve of Trump’s job performance and 48% disapprove. Before Trump’s gains among Florida’s Hispanic population in 2024, Democrats had generally won the demographic in the state by comfortable margins. Democrats argue that recent special election victories in Florida show the party has already started winning back the Hispanic vote, in part because of Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement policy.
对物价和生活成本的不满也影响了特朗普在拉美裔选民中的支持率。“在佛罗里达州的立法竞选中，我们看到了巨大的波动，”华盛顿州民主党人苏珊·德尔本（Suzan DelBene），民主党国会竞选委员会主席上周告诉NBC新闻，谈到了该委员会在佛罗里达州众议院竞选中所做的努力。她说，在移民问题上，特朗普和他的政党违背了“追捕最坏的人中最坏的人”的承诺。
Unhappiness with prices and the cost of living has also affected Trump’s ratings among Hispanic voters. “In legislative races in Florida, we have seen huge swings,” Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told NBC News last week, speaking of the committee’s efforts in Florida House races. She said that on immigration, Trump and his party broke a promise “to go after the worst of the worst.”
到目前为止，最重要的问题是通货膨胀和生活成本，30%的人表示这最有可能影响他们的选票。在整体样本和拉美裔选民样本中，“州或国家的方向”（17%）是第二个最重要的问题。更广泛的民意调查数据将“移民执法”列为第三大问题（16%），而西班牙裔样本将财产税（13%）列为第三大问题。移民执法是西班牙裔选民的第四大问题（12%）。
By far the most important issue identified was inflation and the cost of living, with 30% saying it is likeliest to influence their votes. In both the overall sample and the sample of Hispanic voters, “direction of the state or country” (17%) was the second most important issue. The broader polling data put “immigration enforcement” as the third most important issue (16%), while the Hispanic sample put property taxes (13%) as the third most important issue. Immigration enforcement was the fourth most important issue among Hispanic voters (12%).
有关特朗普政府推动允许地方和州政策与联邦移民官员合作的问题属于党派路线。在所有选民中，85%的共和党人支持该政策，而18%的民主党人和44%的独立选民支持更严厉的移民执法策略。中期选举期间，财产税也成为佛罗里达州的首要议题。州共和党和任期有限的州长。
Questions about the Trump administration’s push to allow local and state policy to cooperate with federal immigration officials fell along party lines. Among all voters, 85% of Republicans support the policy, compared with 18% of Democrats and 44% of those identified as independent voters who supported the harsher immigration enforcement tactics. Property taxes have also been front and center in Florida during the midterms. The state Republican Party and term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis support a ballot measure, known as Amendment 3, that would increase property tax exemptions to the first $250,000 of a home’s value by 2028.
罗恩·德桑蒂斯支持一项名为“第3号修正案”的投票提案，该提案计划到2028年将住宅价值前25万美元的部分纳入房产税豁免范围。目前，该豁免上限为5万美元。在所有佛罗里达州选民中，55%的人支持这项修正案，26%的人反对，19%的人尚未决定。近四分之三（74%）的共和党人支持这一提议，而民主党人的支持率为36%，独立选民为43%。
The exemption cap is currently $50,000. In the poll of all Florida voters, 55% back the amendment, 26% oppose it, and 19% are undecided. Nearly three-quarters (74%) of Republicans supported the idea, compared with 36% for Democrats and 43% for independents.
此次调查共访问了625名选民，他们均表示很可能参加11月的选举。这些受访者于9月28日至周四期间通过电话接受了Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.的采访，误差幅度为±4个百分点。在同一时间段内，该公司还采用相同方法对400名西班牙裔选民进行了调查，误差幅度为±5个百分点。
The overall survey questioned 625ed voters, all of whom said they were likely to vote in the November elections. They were interviewed over the telephone by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. from Sept. 28 to Thursday, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The same time frame and methods were used to survey 400 Hispaniced voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.