一项新的 N+ Univision/YouGov 民意调查显示，民主党在州长和众议院竞选中获得更多拉美裔选民支持，而参议院竞选则几乎势均力敌。家庭成本问题也导致特朗普的。
A new N+ Univision/YouGov poll finds Democrats receiving more Latino support in the governor and House contests, while the Senate is nearly evenly divided. Household costs also draw negative ratings of Trump.
一项新的 N+ Univision/YouGov 民意调查显示，佛罗里达州的拉美裔选民在 2026 年州长和美国众议院竞选中倾向民主党，而参议院竞选仍然几乎势均力敌。与此同时，55% 的受访者表示移民执法已经过度，其中包括认为边境需要加强安全的选民。经济问题也对特朗普总统造成沉重压力，70% 的受访者对他在生活成本和汽油价格方面的处理方式表示不满。
A new N+ Univision/YouGov poll finds that Latino voters in Florida are leaning Democratic in the 2026 gubernatorial and U.S. House races, while the Senate contest remains nearly evenly divided. Meanwhile, 55% say immigration enforcement has gone too far, including voters who believe the border needed securing. Economic concerns also weigh heavily on President Trump, with 70% disapproving of his handling of both the cost of living and gasoline prices.
Lee este artículo en español.共和党在佛罗里达州的主要 2026 年竞选中领先，但多数拉美裔选民表示移民执法已经过度——其中包括许多认为边境需要加强安全的人。
Lee este artículo en español. Republicans lead Florida’s major 2026 races, but a majority of Latino voters say immigration enforcement has gone too far—including many who believe the border needed securing.
这项 N+ Univision/YouGov 民意调查发现，32% 的拉美裔选民表示边境需要加强安全，但执法已经过度。另外 23% 表示边境情况被夸大，且执法已经过度，合计占比达 55%。
This N+ Univision/YouGov poll finds that 32% of Latino voters say the border needed securing but enforcement has gone too far. Another 23% say the border situation was overstated and enforcement has gone too far, bringing the combined share to 55%.
这些发现与全州范围内拉美裔选民的选举形势不同：民主党在州长和众议院竞选中获得更多支持，而参议院选票则几乎势均力敌。拉美裔选民也对特朗普在家庭成本方面的表现给出，70% 的受访者对他在生活成本和汽油价格方面的处理方式表示不满。
The findings accompany a different electoral picture among Latinos than statewide: Democrats receive more support in the governor and U.S. House contests, while the Senate ballot is nearly evenly divided. Latino voters also give Trump poor marks on household costs, with 70% disapproving of his handling of both the cost of living and gasoline prices.
选举形势仍然复杂。在全州范围内，共和党候选人拜伦·唐纳斯以 50% 对 42% 领先于民主党候选人大卫·乔利，竞选州长职位。共和党参议院候选人获得 51% 的支持，而民主党候选人获得 42%；在众议院竞选中，共和党获得 49%，民主党获得 44%。
The electoral picture remains mixed. Statewide, Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly 50% to 42% for governor. The Republican Senate candidate receives 51% to the Democrat’s 42%, while Republicans receive 49% to Democrats’ 44% on the House ballot.
在拉美裔选民中，乔利以 48% 领先于唐纳斯的 43%。民主党在众议院竞选中获得 48% 的支持，而共和党获得 44%；参议院竞选中，民主党获得 45%，共和党获得 44%。
Among Latinos, Jolly receives 48% to Donalds’ 43%. Democrats receive 48% to Republicans’ 44% on the House ballot, while the Senate figures are 45% Democratic and 44% Republican.
特朗普在拉丁裔选民中的支持率比在全州选民中的支持率更低：在拉丁裔选民中，有38%的人对他持正面看法，54%的人持负面看法；而在佛罗里达州全体选民中，这一比例为44%的人持正面看法，50%的人持负面看法。
Trump’s standing is more negative among Latino voters than statewide. Among Latinos, 38% view him favorably and 54% unfavorably, compared with 44% favorable and 50% unfavorable among Florida voters overall.
人们对他的工作表现的评价与当前选民的偏好高度一致：在那些对特朗普总统工作表现表示不满的拉丁裔受访者中，有76%的人支持乔利（Jolly），72%的人支持民主党参议院候选人。
Assessments of his job performance align closely with current candidate preferences. Among Latino respondents who disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, 76% favor Jolly and 72% support the Democratic Senate candidate.
拉丁裔选民的偏好因他们的出身背景而有所不同。在拉丁裔选民群体中，最明显的分歧存在于古巴裔和波多黎各裔选民之间：
Latino voters’ preferences differ by origin The clearest divide within the Latino electorate is between voters of Cuban and Puerto Rican origin.
古巴裔选民在所有三个选举项目中都更倾向于支持共和党：在州长选举中，唐纳兹（Donalds）获得51%的支持率，乔利获得42%；在参议院选举中，共和党获得52%的支持率，民主党获得41%；在众议院选举中，共和党获得51%的支持率，民主党获得43%。
Cuban voters favor Republicans across the three contests. Donalds receives 51% to Jolly’s 42%, while Republicans receive 52% to Democrats’ 41% in the Senate contest and 51% to 43% on the House ballot.
波多黎各裔选民则更倾向于支持民主党：在州长选举中，乔利获得51%的支持率，唐纳兹获得35%；在参议院选举中，民主党获得50%的支持率，共和党获得36%；在众议院选举中，民主党获得54%的支持率，共和党获得36%。
Puerto Rican voters favor Democrats by substantially wider margins. Jolly receives 51% to Donalds’ 35%. Democrats receive 50% to Republicans’ 36% in the Senate contest and 54% to 36% on the House ballot.
南美裔选民在不同职位上的偏好存在分歧：在州长选举中，乔利获得47%的支持率，唐纳兹获得44%；而在参议院和众议院选举中，共和党获得了更多的支持。调查结果显示，拉丁裔选民群体内部存在明显的偏好差异。
South American voters split their preferences across offices: Jolly receives 47% to Donalds’ 44%, while Republicans receive more support in the Senate and House contests. The results show distinct preferences within the Latino electorate, including differences across offices.
在那些曾在2024年投票给特朗普的拉丁裔选民中，目前大多数人更倾向于支持共和党候选人：84%的人支持唐纳兹担任州长，85%的人支持共和党参议院候选人；只有9%的人支持乔利，7%的人支持民主党参议院候选人。
Among Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024, most currently favor Republican candidates: 84% support Donalds for governor and 85% support the Republican Senate candidate. Jolly receives 9% of their support, while the Democratic Senate candidate receives 7%.
关于移民执法政策以及2024年总统选举的看法也存在分歧：佛罗里达州的民主党人最倾向于认为移民执法政策已经走得太远；而独立选民对2024年总统选举的投票态度最为犹豫不决。这些态度在不同出身的选民以及男性和女性选民中都普遍存在。
Views of enforcement and the 2024 vote reveal different divides Florida Democrats are the most likely to say immigration enforcement has gone too far, while independents report the most doubts about their 2024 presidential vote. Among Latino voters, both attitudes appear among voters of different origins and among men and women.
在2024年投票的佛罗里达州无党派选民中，44%对其总统选择表示有些怀疑、严重怀疑或后悔，而民主党人中这一比例为14%，共和党人中为17%。这些回答涉及受访者支持的任何候选人——而非仅特朗普——并包括那些表示可能仍会投同样一票的人。
Among Florida independents who voted in 2024, 44% express some doubts, serious doubts or regret about their presidential choice, compared with 14% of Democrats and 17% of Republicans. These responses concern whichever candidate respondents supported—not Trump alone—and include people who say they would probably vote the same way again.
在2024年投票的拉丁裔受访者中，23%表示有疑虑或后悔。古巴选民中这一比例为22%，波多黎各选民中为20%，南美选民中为25%。拉丁裔男性和女性分别为24%和22%。
Among Latino respondents who voted in 2024, 23% express doubts or regret. The figure is 22% among Cuban voters, 20% among Puerto Rican voters and 25% among South American voters. Latino men and women 24% and 22%, respectively.
关于移民执法，79%的佛罗里达州民主党人认为执法已走得太远，而无党派人士中为44%，共和党人中为15%。全州比例为44%。
On immigration enforcement, 79% of Florida Democrats say it has gone too far, compared with 44% of independents and 15% of Republicans. The statewide figure is 44%.
在拉丁裔中，55%持这一立场。这包括32%认为边境需要加固但执法已走得太远的人，以及23%认为边境局势被夸大且执法已走得太远的人。这一区别表明，受访者可以支持加强边境安全，同时反对执法的方式。
Among Latinos, 55% take that position. This combines 32% who say the border needed securing but enforcement has gone too far and 23% who say the border situation was overstated and enforcement has gone too far. The distinction shows that respondents can support stronger border security while objecting to how enforcement is carried out.
不同来源的拉丁裔选民中，这一综合评估相似：古巴选民中为54%，波多黎各和南美选民中均为56%。担心执法影响本人或亲近之人的比例差异更大，分别为36%、39%和44%。
That combined assessment is similar among Latino voters of different origins: 54% among Cuban voters and 56% among both Puerto Rican and South American voters. Worry about enforcement affecting themselves or someone close varies more, at 36%, 39% and 44%, respectively.
总体而言，41%的拉丁裔非常或有些担心自己、家人或亲近之人可能被拦截、拘留或以其他方式直接受到影响，而全州比例为27%。按党派认同划分，民主党人中为43%，无党派人士中为27%，共和党人中为13%。
Overall, 41% of Latinos are very or somewhat worried that they, a family member or someone close could be stopped, detained or otherwise directly affected, compared with 27% statewide. By party identification, the figures are 43% among Democrats, 27% among independents and 13% among Republicans.
在2024年投票给特朗普的拉丁裔中，29%认为移民执法已走得太远，29%非常或有些担心自己或亲近之人可能受到影响。关于他们的总统选择，28%表示有些怀疑、严重怀疑或后悔。
Among Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024, 29% say immigration enforcement has gone too far, and 29% are very or somewhat worried that they or someone close could be affected. On their presidential choice, 28% express some doubts, serious doubts or regret.
在整个拉丁裔选民群体中，59%的人支持同时推进边境安全，并为通过背景调查的长期居住无证移民提供入籍途径。31%的人支持优先推进边境安全，并将移民改革推迟到更晚的时候。
Across the Latino electorate as a whole, 59% favor pursuing both border security and a pathway to citizenship for long-established undocumented immigrants who pass a background check. Thirty-one percent favor prioritizing border security and addressing reform much later.
经济负担能力争夺选民关注。移民问题分裂选民，但经济问题在佛罗里达州最重要的问题中被更广泛地选中。
Affordability competes for voters’ attention Immigration divides voters, but economic concerns are more widely selected among Florida’s most important problems.
在拉丁裔中，59%的人将就业和生活成本列为州首要问题，57%的人选择住房成本和负担能力。33%的人选择移民和移民执法。
Among Latinos, 59% identify jobs and the cost of living as a top state issue, and 57% select housing costs and affordability. Immigration and immigration enforcement are selected by 33%.
全州范围的模式类似：就业和生活成本排在56%，住房为51%，移民和执法为27%。受访者可以选择多个问题。
The statewide pattern is similar: jobs and the cost of living rank at 56%, housing at 51%, and immigration and enforcement at 27%. Respondents could select multiple issues.
这些优先事项反映了家庭预算的压力。在拉丁裔中，杂货和食品是被最频繁选择的开支，占61%，其次是汽油和交通，占51%。29%的人选择房租或房贷支付，在波多黎各选民中上升至36%。受访者最多可选择三项开支。
Those priorities reflect pressures on household budgets. Among Latinos, groceries and food are the most frequently selected expense, at 61%, followed by gasoline and transportation at 51%. Twenty-nine percent select rent or mortgage payments, rising to 36% among Puerto Rican voters. Respondents could choose up to three expenses.
十分之四的拉丁裔选民表示，其家庭财务状况比一年前有些或大幅恶化。在拉丁裔房主中，45%的人表示，过去两年内其房主保险费大幅上涨。
Four in 10 Latino voters say their household finances are somewhat or much worse than a year ago. Among Latino homeowners, 45% say their homeowners-insurance premium increased substantially over the past two years.
选民还对特朗普处理家庭成本的表现给出了低评价。在拉丁裔中，70%的人不赞成他处理生活成本的方式，而27%的人表示赞成。在汽油价格方面，70%的人不赞成，25%的人表示赞成。在住房负担能力方面，63%的人不赞成，29%的人表示赞成。
Voters also give Trump poor marks on his handling of household costs. Among Latinos, 70% disapprove of his handling of the cost of living, compared with 27% who approve. On gasoline prices, 70% disapprove and 25% approve. On housing affordability, 63% disapprove and 29% approve.
全州范围内，不赞成率在生活成本方面为63%，汽油价格方面为68%，住房负担能力方面为57%。赞成率分别为32%、27%和33%。选举将检验这些态度如何转化为选票。
Statewide, disapproval stands at 63% on the cost of living, 68% on gasoline prices and 57% on housing affordability. Approval is 32%, 27% and 33%, respectively. The election will test how these attitudes translate into votes.
佛罗里达州的拉丁裔选民并不认同单一的党派标签。不同来源群体的选举偏好各不相同，但多数古巴裔、波多黎各裔和南美裔选民表示，移民执法已经走得太远。大多数支持特朗普的拉丁裔选民仍支持共和党籍的州长和参议员候选人。这些发现表明，为何不应将候选人的忠诚度、对边境安全的支持以及对移民执法的认可视为可以互换的概念。在此下载佛罗里达州选民的完整调查结果。在此下载佛罗里达州拉丁裔选民的完整调查结果。
Florida’s Latino electorate resists a single partisan label. Electoral preferences differ by origin, yet majorities of Cuban, Puerto Rican and South American voters say immigration enforcement has gone too far. Most Latino Trump voters still favor Republicans for governor and Senate. The findings show why candidate loyalty, support for border security and approval of enforcement should not be treated as interchangeable. Download the full results for Florida voters here. Download the full results for Latino voters in Florida here.
关于本次民调：TelevisaUnivision旗下新闻部门N+ Univision委托YouGov对佛罗里达州登记选民进行了一项调查。访谈于2026年10月2日至10月15日期间进行，对象为825名佛罗里达州登记选民。本次调查还包括937名佛罗里达州拉丁裔登记选民的超额样本。受访者由YouGov挑选，以代表佛罗里达州登记选民，拉丁裔超额样本则代表佛罗里达州拉丁裔登记选民。
About the poll N+ Univision, the news division of TelevisaUnivision, commissioned YouGov to conduct a survey of registered voters in Florida. Interviews were conducted from October 2 to October 15, 2026, among 825 Florida registered voters. The survey also includes an oversample of 937 Florida Latino registered voters. Respondents were selected by YouGov to be representative of registered voters in Florida and, for the Latino oversample, registered Latino voters in Florida.
全州样本按性别、年龄、种族/族裔、教育程度、州内地区、2020年总统选举投票情况以及大致的2024年总统选举投票情况进行了加权。加权基准依据选民登记名单、美国人口普查局美国社区调查、美国人口普查局当前人口调查以及可获得的选举结果。全州样本权重范围为0.12至5.18，均值为1，标准差为0.59。
The statewide sample was weighted by gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, state region, 2020 presidential vote, and approximate 2024 presidential vote. Weighting benchmarks were based on voter registration lists, the U.S. Census American Community Survey, the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, and available election results. Statewide sample weights ranged from 0.12 to 5.18, with a mean of 1 and a standard deviation of 0.59.
在95%置信水平下，全州样本的误差幅度约为±4个百分点，拉丁裔样本约为±3.9个百分点。子群体的抽样误差幅度可能更高，且不反映非抽样误差，包括小组参与或调查回复中可能存在的选择偏差。
The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is approximately ±4 percentage points for the statewide sample and ±3.9 percentage points for the Latino sample. The margin of sampling error may be higher for subgroups and does not reflect nonsampling errors, including potential selection bias in panel participation or survey response.
该调查由N+ Univision民调与数据总监塞尔吉奥·加西亚-里奥斯博士监督，BluePoint Analytix协助进行问卷审查、分析和解读。该调查由YouGov执行并收集数据。
The survey was overseen by Dr. Sergio García-Ríos, Director of Polling and Data for N+ Univision, with BluePoint Analytix assisting with questionnaire review, analysis, and interpretation. YouGov administered the survey and collected the data.