威廉·迪亚兹（William Diaz）有一句座右铭：他唯一的政党就是他的委内瑞拉社区。
William Diaz has a mantra: His only political party is his Venezuelan community.
他不遵循严格的党派规则，也不相信只投民主党或共和党的票。当共和党参议员里克·斯科特（Rick Scott）和国务卿马可·鲁比奥（Marco Rubio）在佛罗里达州竞选公职时，迪亚兹支持过他们，他在该州已生活了37年。
He doesn’t abide by strict partisan rules, and doesn't believe in only voting for Democrats or Republicans. He supported Republicans Sen. Rick Scott and Secretary of State Marco Rubio when they were running for office in Florida, where Diaz has lived for 37 years.
然而，对于即将到来的中期选举，这位奥兰多居民希望表达一个明确的立场：他不支持唐纳德·特朗普总统的移民政策，并对共和党支持的举措如何影响他的社区感到不满。
For these midterm elections, however, the Orlando resident hopes to make a clear statement: He does not support President Donald Trump’s immigration policies and is unhappy with how Republican-backed initiatives have affected his community.
“我已经投过票了，当我投票、拿着选票时，我真心在思考和祈祷，为所有那些没有发声权的人、那些无法投票的人、那些现在正在街头成为行动受害者的移民祈祷，”迪亚兹对《时代》（TIME）杂志表示，他指的是特朗普的大规模驱逐议程以及移民与海关执法局（ICE）日益扩大的影响力。“我的同胞们遭受了太多苦难。”
“I voted already, and what I did when I was voting and when I was with my ballot, I was really thinking and praying for all those that has no voice, those that can not vote, those immigrants that are right now victim of actions on the streets,” Diaz tells TIME, referring to Trump’s mass deportation agenda and the expansive influence of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). “My people have been suffering that much.”
根据周日公布的州政府数据，迪亚兹是佛罗里达州已有超过260万人投出选票的人群之一，投票方式包括邮寄或亲自提前投票。部分县于10月19日开始亲自提前投票，10月24日扩大至全州范围。
Diaz is one of more than 2.6 million people who have already cast ballots in Florida, either by mail or through in-person early voting, according to state figures released Sunday. In-person early voting began in some counties Oct. 19 and expanded statewide Oct. 24.
迪亚兹的社区是佛罗里达州拉美裔选民群体的一部分，该群体拥有多元的原籍国和政治忠诚度。但总体而言，拉美裔选民在全州多场受瞩目的竞选中构成关键的摇摆选票。根据2024年美国选民投票调查（American Electorate Voter Poll），他们是特朗普2024年在佛罗里达州获胜的关键，当时56%的拉美裔选民支持他，而非卡玛拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）。
Diaz’s community is one part of a Florida Latino electorate with varied national origins and political loyalties. Taken together, however, Latino voters are a swing vote in several closely watched races statewide. They were key to Trump’s Florida victory in 2024, with 56% supporting him over Kamala Harris, according to the 2024 American Electorate Voter Poll.
但在选举日前的最新民调显示，拉美裔选民对共和党的支持可能正处于动荡之中——这种转变可能让共和党在佛罗里达州面临考验，并塑造11月之后的政治版图。佛罗里达州拉美裔选民为何对特朗普感到失望据研究拉美裔投票行为的组织Equis Research联合创始人Stephanie Valencia表示，佛罗里达州拉美裔选民的不满反映了更广泛的全国情绪。
But new polls ahead of Election Day suggest that Latino support for the GOP may be on shaky ground—a shift that could put Republicans to the test in Florida and shape the political landscape beyond November. Why Florida’s Latino voters are frustrated with Trump Dissatisfaction among Florida’s Latino voters reflects a broader national mood, according to Stephanie Valencia, a co-founder of Equis Research, an organization that studies Latino voting behavior.
她指出，对经济和移民执法手段的担忧正在加剧拉美裔选民的不满，这些选民“构成了佛罗里达州选民的很大一部分”，而这两个问题都“不成比例地影响着”他们。
Concerns about the economy and immigration enforcement tactics are fueling dissatisfaction among Latino voters, who “make up a huge part of the electorate in Florida,” she says, pointing out that both of these issues are “disproportionately impacting” them.
一项由Univision/YouGov于10月2日至15日进行的民调显示，41%的佛罗里达州已登记拉美裔选民“非常或有点担心”自己、家人或亲近的人可能被拘留或以其他方式直接受到移民执法影响，而佛罗里达州整体选民中这一比例为27%。
A Univision/YouGov poll, conducted Oct. 2–15, showed that 41% of registered Latino voters in Florida were “very or somewhat worried” that they, a family member, or someone close could be detained or otherwise directly affected by immigration enforcement, compared with 27% of Florida voters overall.
同一民调还显示，该州10位拉美裔选民中有4位认为过去一年他们的财务状况恶化了，70%不赞成特朗普对美国生活成本的处理。相比之下，佛罗里达州整体选民的不赞成率为63%。
The same poll showed that 4 in 10 Latino voters in the state felt that their finances had worsened over the past year, with 70% disapproving of Trump’s handling of the cost of living in the U.S. That stands in comparison to a 63% disapproval rate from Florida voters overall.
对于居住在佛罗里达州基西米的多米尼加裔移民Johanna Chavez来说，经济问题是当前最关心的事项。
For Johanna Chavez, a Dominican immigrant living in Kissimmee, Florida, the economy is top of mind.
“许多人担心经济和汽油价格……还有房租成本，已经变得难以置信地、压倒性地高，”通过翻译用西班牙语接受《时代》周刊采访的Chavez说。“他们承诺要做的所有事情——什么都没发生。”Chavez表示，过去几年感觉美国开始“倒退”，她来到这里时寻找的机会并没有像她希望的那样实现。
“Many people are concerned about the economy and the price of gasoline … and then there’s the cost of rent, it’s become incredibly, overwhelmingly high,” Chavez, who speaks Spanish, tells TIME through a translator. “All the things they promised would be done—nothing has happened.”In the past few years, Chavez says it has felt like the United States has started “regressing,” and the opportunities she was looking for when she arrived here have not materialized in the way she had hoped.
“感觉就像回到了我的祖国多米尼加共和国一样，”她说。“我们大家来到这里都盼望变革，寻求更好的生活，结果却陷入了同样的循环。事情根本不是该有的样子。”
“It’s starting to feel just like the situation back in my home country, the Dominican Republic,” she says. “We all came here hoping for change, seeking a better life, but it’s ending up being the same thing all over again. Things just aren’t what they’re supposed to be.”
全美最大的拉美裔权益非营利组织“UnidosUS”佛罗里达州倡导主贾里德·诺德伦德表示，这是佛罗里达州拉美裔群体中普遍的心声；民众对关税和伊朗战争如何冲击经济感到愤怒。他说，霍尔木兹海峡关闭挤压全球能源供应，导致油价飙升，佛罗里达州受创尤重。
Jared Nordlund, the Florida State Advocacy Director at UnidosUS, the largest nonprofit Latino rights organization in the U.S., says this is a common refrain among Floridian Latinos; people are upset over how the economy has been affected by tariffs and the war in Iran. Florida was hit particularly hard by rising gas prices after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz squeezed the global energy supply, he says.
“佛罗里达州不适合公共交通出行，所以民众高度依赖汽车，他们原本用于买食物的钱现在不得不在……加油和去买食物之间‘掰断了用’，”诺德伦德说。
“Florida is not a state friendly for public transportation, so people are highly reliant on the cars, and so what they would be paying for food now is having to kind of get broke between … paying to get the gas and then going to get food,” Nordlund says.
现在的问题是，这种不满能否转化为反对共和党的选票——以及这是否足以扭转该州势均力敌的竞选局势。
The question now is whether that dissatisfaction will translate into votes against Republicans—and whether it will be enough to tip the state’s close races.
特朗普拉美裔支持率下滑 让佛罗里达共和党人警觉 据Equis Research数据，特朗普在佛罗里达州拉美裔选民中的支持率已大幅下滑，从任初的58%跌至中期选举前的36%。
Trump’s declining Latino support puts Florida Republicans on notice Trump’s approval rating has plummeted with Latino voters in Florida, dropping from 58% approval at the start of his term to 36% ahead of midterm elections, according to Equis Research.
据10月AP-NORC民调，约6成拉美裔选民不认可特朗普履职表现，逾7成不认可其经济管理。
According to an AP-NORC poll from October, about 6 in 10 Latino voters disapprove of how Trump is handling the presidency, and more than 7 in 10 disapprove of how he is handling the economy.
皮尤研究中心民调显示，特朗普在拉美裔选民中的支持率从2025年2月的38%降至9月和10月的24%。在上届支持他的人群中，支持率降至57%——远低于2025年初的93%。
A Pew Research Center poll found that Trump’s job approval rating among Latino voters dropped from 38% in February 2025 to 24% in September and October. Of those who backed him in the last election, approval dropped to 57%—down from 93% in early 2025.
这种转变可能引起了像众议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉扎尔这样的共和党人的共鸣，她正在佛罗里达州第27选区（位于迈阿密-戴德县，该选区拉美裔占多数，特朗普在2024年以约15个百分点的优势赢得该选区）寻求连任。她在竞选中公开与特朗普决裂，并批评他的移民政策。
The shift may be resonating with Republicans like Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, who is seeking re-election in Florida’s 27th District in Miami-Dade—a majority Latino district that Trump carried by some 15 points in 2024. She publicly broke with Trump in her campaign and criticized his immigration policies.
在9月的一则广告中，萨拉扎尔表示，特朗普在驱逐议程上“走得太远了”。
In one ad in September, Salazar said that Trump has “gone too far" with his deportation agenda.
“7月份，被拘留的5万人中有50%没有犯罪记录，”她在广告中指出。
“In July, 50% of the 50,000 people that were detained had no criminal record,” she notes in the ad.
“小心你的顾问们在移民政策上告诉你什么，”萨拉扎尔继续说道，对着特朗普说。“那些帮助你在2024年进入白宫的西班牙裔今天感到被背叛了。” 为什么拉美裔的不满可能不会转化为民主党选票 古巴裔美国人、佛罗里达国际大学（FIU）社会学教授吉列尔莫·格雷纳同意许多拉美裔选民对特朗普“非常恼火”。
“Be careful what your advisers are telling you about immigration policy,” Salazar continues, addressing Trump. “The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.”Why Latino frustration may not translate into Democratic votes Guillermo Grenier, a Cuban American professor of sociology at Florida International University (FIU), agrees that many Latino voters are “ticked off” at Trump.
“如果你看看整个拉美裔群体，他们对特朗普的反感相当强烈，”他说。
“The population, if you look at the whole Latino conglomerate, is turned off pretty strongly with Trump,” he says.
但南佛罗里达的拉美裔选民群体是独特的；格雷纳指出，该州拥有190万古巴裔美国人——这是美国最大的聚集地。
But South Florida’s Latino electorate is unique; Grenier points out that the state is home to 1.9 million Cuban Americans—the largest concentration in the United States.
作为一个投票群体，该社区拥有显著影响力。2024年，佛罗里达国际大学的古巴民调发现，迈阿密-戴德县68%的古巴裔美国人潜在选民支持特朗普，而支持哈里斯的仅为23%——这代表了该民调历史上对他支持率的最高纪录。
As a voting bloc, the community has significant sway. In 2024, FIU’s Cuba poll found that 68% of likely Cuban American voters in Miami-Dade County supported Trump, compared to 23% for Harris—representing his highest-recorded support level in the poll's history.
因此，古巴裔美国选民远离共和党可能会在南佛罗里达产生重大后果。但根据格雷纳的说法，幻灭感并不总是会转化为行动。
A shift away from Republicans among Cuban American voters could therefore have significant consequences in South Florida. But disillusionment doesn’t always turn into action, according to Grenier.
“我认为很多古巴人对特朗普很愤怒，但他们仍然是共和党人，”他说。民主党对这一潜在机会的回应可能需要几个选举周期才能展开。
“I think a lot of Cubans are pissed off at Trump, but they're still Republicans,” he says. The Democratic Party’s response to this potential opening may unfold over several election cycles.
“坦率地说，民主党在争取拉丁裔选民以及所有选民的支持方面仍处于一个‘试用期’阶段——他们是否能够真正兑现自己的承诺，还有待观察，”瓦伦西亚（Valencia）说道。“仅仅赢得一次选举并不足以赢得某个特定群体的持久支持。”瓦伦西亚和格尼埃（Grenier）都认为，关键在于民主党能否证明自己愿意继续在佛罗里达州投入资源（即继续为当地的民主事业发展提供资金和人力支持）。佛罗里达州有哪些值得关注的关键选举？
“Democrats are going to be in a probationary period with Latinos and with all voters, quite frankly, on whether they can deliver or not,” Valencia says. “One election is not durable support among a particular group.”Both Valencia and Grenier suggest that it will come down to Democrats proving that they are willing to reinvest in Florida. What are the key races to watch in Florida?
佛罗里达州有好几场重要的选举值得关注。尽管在过去三个选举周期中，该州一直坚定地支持共和党，但民主党目前仍在通过竞选活动和资金投入来加大自己在选举中的力度。
There are several key races at stake in Florida. Although the state has leaned reliably red for the past three election cycles, Democrats are investing late in the race through campaigning and financing.
根据佛罗里达民主党于10月1日公布的数据，该党在活跃登记选民数量上的月度净增长幅度超过了共和党。佛罗里达民主党将这一增长视为自己在该州支持基础不断扩大的证据。
Florida Democrats posted a larger monthly net gain in active registered voters than Republicans, according to figures the party highlighted Oct. 1. The Florida Democratic Party touted the gains as a sign of its growing base in the state.
“我们花了多年时间从零开始重建这个政党。我们的组织者全年都在各个社区开展工作，志愿者们正在全州范围内走访选民，民主党人也正在与佛罗里达州的民众进行深入的对话，讨论当前面临的挑战，”佛罗里达民主党主席尼基·弗里德（Nikki Fried）在10月的一份声明中表示，“这种势头是真实存在的。”现任州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯（Ron DeSantis）的任期已满，因此无法再次参选；这意味着共和党候选人拜伦·唐纳兹（Byron Donalds）以及2018年退出共和党后转而加入民主党的戴维·乔利（David Jolly）都有可能成为下一任州长。
“We’ve spent years rebuilding this party from the ground up. Our organizers are in communities year-round, our volunteers are knocking doors across this state, and Democrats are having real conversations with Floridians about what’s at stake,” Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said in an October statement. “The momentum is real.”Gov. Ron DeSantis is term-limited and cannot run for re-election, leaving the role open for Byron Donalds, the Republican candidate who has been endorsed by Trump, and David Jolly, who is running as a Democrat after leaving the GOP in 2018.
北佛罗里达大学（University of North Florida, UNF）的公共舆论研究实验室（Public Opinion Research Lab, PORL）于10月21日发布的一项民意调查显示，唐纳兹和乔利的支持率分别为49%和47%，这一差距处于该民意调查允许的3%误差范围内。
A poll released Oct. 21 by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida (UNF) found that Donalds leads 49% to 47%—within the poll's almost 3-percentage-point margin of error.
拉丁裔选民对乔利的竞选前景可能至关重要。根据Univision/YouGov联合进行的民意调查，拉丁裔选民更倾向于支持乔利（48%对43%），尽管在所有佛罗里达州选民中，唐纳兹的支持率略高于乔利（50%对42%）。
Latino voters could be important to Jolly’s chances. The Univision/YouGov poll found that they favored him over Donalds, 48% to 43%, even as Donalds led 50% to 42% among Florida voters overall.
民主党人已经注意到了这一动向。在乔利（Jolly）多次恳请民主党为其竞选活动提供资金之后，民主党州长协会于10月20日宣布将投入100万美元，以帮助在选举日前的几周内缩小选举差距。这一趋势在某些国会选举中也有所体现。
Democrats are taking note. Weeks after Jolly beseeched the Democratic Party to send money to his campaign, the Democratic Governors Association announced Oct. 20 that it will invest $1 million to help close the narrowing gap in the weeks before Election Day. That trend follows in certain congressional races downballot.
9月份的一项民意调查显示，萨拉扎尔（Salazar）以仅1个百分点的优势领先于他的民主党对手埃利奥特·罗德里格斯（Elliott Rodriguez）——后者曾是一名地方新闻主播。
A September poll found Salazar leading Democratic challenger Eliott Rodriguez, a former local news anchor, by just 1 point.
美国民主党社会党（Democratic Socialists of America）的成员安吉·尼克松（Angie Nixon）在参议院选举中处于劣势，她将面对现任共和党参议员阿什利·穆迪（Ashley Moody）。最近的一项民意调查显示，穆迪以49%对45%的优势领先尼克松，这一优势较7月份时已经减半。
Angie Nixon, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, is an underdog for Senate, taking on Republican incumbent Sen. Ashley Moody. A recent UNF poll has Moody leading by 49% to 45%, halving the advantage she had in July. National Democratic leaders and allies have made the trip to Florida to bolster these close races.
民主党全国领导人和盟友纷纷前往佛罗里达州，为这些竞争激烈的选举提供支持。
Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Democratic ally, rallied in Tampa for Nixon on Oct. 17.
10月17日，独立参议员伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）在坦帕市为尼克松举行了支持活动；10月16日，众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯（Hakeem Jeffries）与罗德里格斯一起展开了竞选活动，他们在一家古巴咖啡店和面包店举办了竞选活动。
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries campaigned with Rodriguez on Oct. 16; they held a campaign event at a Cuban coffee shop and bakery. The decision received some blowback, with one conservative Cuban influencer taking to Instagram to slam the business for hosting Jeffries.
然而，这一决定也引发了一些争议：一位保守派的古巴博主在Instagram上批评这家咖啡店为杰弗里斯提供了支持场所，认为与民主党合作等同于支持社会主义。
He argued that associating with the Democrats equated to supporting socialism. For Grenier, the incident shows that Democrats have some serious work to do to gain trust in Florida—and while it might be “too late” to invest in candidates in this election, the party can lay the groundwork for 2028 and beyond.
对于格尼埃（Grenier）来说，这一事件表明民主党在佛罗里达州仍需努力赢得选民的信任。虽然现在为这些候选人提供支持可能为时已晚，但民主党可以为2028年及以后的选举奠定基础。
He said that if Democrats want to build on the momentum after the midterms, they can’t get “gun shy.”
格尼埃表示：“如果民主党希望在中期选举后继续保持势头，就不能胆怯。他们正在努力建立的新据点，正是未来选举的成功之道。”他继续说道：“要知道，共和党在1996年才扭转了该州的选举局势，而在此之前他们已经进行了长达10年的投资。因此，民主党必须坚持下去，并让全国领导人支持地方领导人。”
“This new beachhead that [Democrats] are trying to establish is the way to go for the next elections,” Grenier says. “You know, it was 10 years of investing before Republicans flipped the state in 1996,” he continues. “So, they need to just keep it up, and have national leaders support local leaders.”