佛罗里达州共和党人对中期选举投票率低迷并未惊慌，但正如一位共和党资深人士所言：“我们捏了一把汗。”
Florida Republicans aren't panicking about sluggish turnout for the midterms but in the words of one GOP elder: "We're white-knuckled."
为何重要：佛罗里达州一度被视为共和党在中期选举中稳操胜券的州份。输掉任何一场全州范围的选战，都会震惊并令其精英共和党居民尴尬，首当其冲的便是特朗普总统。
- “我不想当那个带来坏消息的人，但我认为投票率不如我们希望看到的那么强劲，”佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯上周忧心忡忡地表示。
Why it matters: Florida once looked like a much safer Republican bet for the midterms. Losing any statewide race would stun and embarrass its elite Republican residents, starting with President Trump • "I don't necessarily want to be the bearer of bad news, but I don't think the turnout is as strong as we would like to see," Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis fretted last week.
- 共和党最大的担忧是联邦众议员拜伦·唐纳兹的州长竞选，尽管大多数民调显示他以微弱优势领先民主党人大卫·乔利。
• The biggest GOP concern is U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds' campaign for governor, though most polls show him narrowly leading Democrat David Jolly.
- 唐纳兹筹集了1.76亿美元；乔利仅筹集了2800万美元。
• Donalds has raised $176 million; Jolly just $28 million. Zoom in
聚焦细节共和党的忐忑源于早期投票数据。
The GOP's jitters are rooted in early turnout data.
- 截至周六下午，共和党在已投出的早期选票中仅领先民主党2.8个百分点。这远低于过去两届大选——尽管共和党在选民登记上对民主党拥有大得多的优势：11个百分点。
• Republicans led Democrats in early ballots cast by just 2.8 percentage points as of Saturday afternoon. That's much lower than in the past two general elections — and it's despite a much-bigger Republican registration advantage over Democrats: 11 points.
- 共和党投票率最疲软的地区是保守派的狭长地带和北佛罗里达农村地区，包括唐纳兹在共和党初选中失利的17个县中的许多县。
• Republican turnout is weakest in parts of the conservative Panhandle and rural North Florida, including many of the 17 counties Donalds lost in the Republican primary.
- 佛罗里达大学政治学家迈克尔·麦克唐纳发现，在这17个县，共和党投票率比2022年低3.2个百分点，而在唐纳兹获胜的县则低1.1个百分点。
• In those 17 counties, GOP turnout is 3.2 points below 2022, compared with 1.1 points below in counties that Donalds won, University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald found.
深层解读：共和党的投票群体由更多惯常投票者组成，而民主党人和无党派选民则依靠那些平时不总去投票的人投出的选票。如果民调低估了这些选民，这可能会令乔利受益。
Between the lines: Republican turnout is made up of more habitual voters, while Democrats and independents are banking ballots from people who don't always show up. That could benefit Jolly if polls underestimate those voters.
- 民主党已在15个县的早期投票和邮寄投票总数超过了其2022年的全部水平，共和党仅在4个县做到这一点。
• Democrats already have surpassed their entire 2022 early and mail-in vote totals in 15 counties, compared with four counties for Republicans.
- 几乎所有民调都显示无党派选民以两位数优势支持民主党，因此共和党需要巨大的投票率优势。
• Nearly every poll shows independent voters favoring Democrats by double digits, so Republicans need a heavy turnout advantage.
约三分之二的佛罗里达州选民通常在选举日前投票，这使得提前投票和缺席投票的差距至关重要。
About two-thirds of Florida voters typically cast ballots before Election Day, making the early and absentee margins critical.
- 民主党策略师史蒂夫·沙尔发现，在2022年等到选举日才投票的人群中，今年已有约6万名共和党选民比民主党选民更多地投出了选票。
• Among voters who waited until Election Day in 2022, roughly 60,000 more Republicans than Democrats have already voted this year, Democratic strategist Steve Schale found.
- 这意味着共和党在2022年依赖其选举日激增的部分选民已经投票——可能会缩减他们通常在周二享有的优势。
• That means some voters Republicans rely on for their Election Day surge in 2022 have already cast ballots — potentially shrinking their usual Tuesday advantage. The big picture:
大局：据向Axios透露的内部民主党和共和党估算，唐纳兹进入选举日时可能落后多达50万票。
Donalds could enter Election Day down by as many as 500,000 votes, according to internal Democratic and GOP estimates shared with Axios.
- 要弥补这一差距，唐纳兹可能需要在选举日投票中以2:1的比例获胜。这是个艰巨任务，但共和党以前曾取得过巨大的选举日优势，特别是在2022年。
• To overcome that deficit, Donalds could need to win the Election Day vote by a 2:1 ratio. It's a tall order, but Republicans have delivered huge Election Day margins before, notably in 2022.
数字解读：黑人和西班牙裔选民在今年佛罗里达州的民调中更倾向民主党，他们在提前选民中的比例不断上升，在新报告的选票中占比更大。
By the numbers: Black and Hispanic voters, who are leaning more toward Democrats this year in Florida polling, are making up a growing share of the early electorate, accounting for a larger share of newly reported ballots.
- 在各种族和族裔群体中，民主党人的投票率均高于共和党人。在活跃民主党人中，50%的白人选民、39%的黑人选民和34%的西班牙裔选民已投票，而这些群体中的共和党人比例分别为35%、21%和28%。
• Across racial and ethnic groups, Democrats are voting at higher rates than Republicans. Among active Democrats, 50% of white voters, 39% of Black voters and 34% of Hispanic voters have cast ballots, compared with 35%, 21% and 28% of Republicans in those groups.
- 年轻选民显示出另一显著差距：30岁以下活跃登记民主党人中有25%已投票，共和党人仅9%。
• Young voters show another substantial gap: 25% of active registered Democrats under 30 have voted, compared with just 9% of Republicans.
但是：佛罗里达州共和党人仍以150万的优势多于民主党人，拥有更大的可靠选民池。
Yes, but: Florida Republicans still outnumber Democrats by 1.5 million, with a larger pool of reliable voters.
- 佛罗里达州共和党资金更充裕、组织更完善。
• Florida's GOP is better funded and organized than the state's Democratic Party.
- 即使在2018年全国出现“蓝色浪潮”时，佛罗里达州的“红墙”依然屹立。德桑蒂斯以极微弱优势赢得州长选举，时任州长里克·斯科特以同样微弱优势当选参议员。
• Even in 2018, when a blue wave flooded the nation, Florida's red wall held. By razor-thin margins, DeSantis won the governor's race and then-Gov. Rick Scott was elected to the Senate.
- “我们总能在选举日获胜，我们知道怎么做，”州共和党主席埃文·鲍尔说。“这里的紧张情绪很大程度上是因为上一次我们经历势均力敌的选举还是八年前，人们已经忘了这里势均力敌的选举是什么样子了。”
• "We always win Election Day, and we know how to do this," state GOP chair Evan Power said. "A lot of the nerves here are because the last time we had a close election was eight years ago, and people forgot what a close election looks like here."
共和党面临的政治气候与2018年不同，当时特朗普在共和党内声势大涨，经济也在好转。如今，特朗普在共和党内的支持率较低，汽油价格却更高。
Republicans face a different political climate than in 2018, when Trump was ascendant in the GOP and the economy was improving. Today, Trump's approval with Republicans is lower and gas prices are higher.
- 共和党担心可能会失去10到15个州众议院席位，从而危及其超级多数地位。
• Republicans worry they could lose 10 to 15 state House seats, jeopardizing their supermajority.
- 在迈阿密的第27国会选区，投票模式正为共和党联邦众议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉扎尔在与民主党人埃利奥特·罗德里格斯的竞争中闪烁着警示信号。
• In Miami's 27th Congressional District, voting patterns are flashing warning signs for Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar in her race against Democrat Eliot Rodriguez.
- 至于三个全州范围的佛罗里达州内阁职位（司法部长、首席财务官、农业部长），“没人应该觉得稳操胜券，但有理由觉得还行，”一名参与其中一场竞选的共和党人说。
• As for the three statewide Florida Cabinet posts (attorney general, chief financial officer, agriculture commissioner), "no one should feel safe, but there's reason to feel OK," said a Republican involved one of the races. Nationwide
全国范围气氛对共和党极其不利，以至于得克萨斯州、堪萨斯州、阿拉斯加州、俄亥俄州甚至南卡罗来纳州看起来都有竞争悬念。
the atmosphere is so bad for the GOP that Texas, Kansas, Alaska, Ohio and even South Carolina look in play. Behind the scenes
幕后上周，早期投票数据让塔拉哈西的共和党阵营感到一阵寒意：如果关于共和党投票率更强的民调假设是错的，会怎样？
The early voting data sent a chill through Republican ranks in Tallahassee last week: What if the polling assumptions about stronger Republican turnout were wrong?
- “就在几周前，我没想到我会有这种感觉，”一名全州范围竞选的高级顾问说。“这不是恐慌。至少还不是。”
• "Just a few weeks ago I didn't think I would be feeling like this," a top consultant for one of the statewide races said. "It's not panic. At least not yet."
- 共和党对参议员阿什利·穆迪对阵州众议员安吉·尼克松的竞选仍更有信心，后者被普遍视为对这个红州选民来说过于进步。
• Republicans remain more confident about Sen. Ashley Moody's race against state Rep. Angie Nixon, who's widely seen as too progressive for the red state's voters.
摩擦点：共和党私下担心种族主义可能会损害唐纳兹，就像可能损害尼克松一样。唐纳兹和尼克松都是黑人。
Friction point: Republicans have quietly fretted that racism could hurt Donalds just as it may hurt Nixon. Donalds and Nixon are Black.
- “我们即将进行最大规模的实验，看看我们有些选民到底有多种族主义，”一位资深共和党顾问说，并称唐纳兹失利的那些县份“在文化上比佛罗里达州其他地方更具邦联色彩”。
• "We're about to run the biggest experiment to see how racist some of our voters are," a longtime Republican consultant said, calling the counties Donalds lost "more culturally Confederate" than the rest of Florida.
- “在初选期间，他在狭长地带表现不佳，如果人们认为肤色在其中没有起作用，那他们就是天真，”MAGA 网红劳拉·卢默周六在
• "During the primary, he underperformed in the Panhandle and if people think skin color didn't play a role in that, they are naive," MAGA influencer Laura Loomer posted Saturday on