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美联社选举前瞻:佛罗里达州选举日有哪些看点AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Florida on Election Day

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迈阿密-戴德县选举监督委员会的工作人员于2026年10月19日星期一在佛罗里达州迈阿密提前投票期间核查选民的身份证件。(美联社照片/玛尔塔·拉万迪尔)Miami-Dade Supervisors of Elections employees check identification documents of voters during early voting Monday, Oct. 19, 2026, in Miami, Fla. (AP Photo/Marta Lavandier)

罗伯特·尹 华盛顿报道 —— 佛罗里达州共和党人将在周二的选举中试图延续其在全州范围选举中的统治地位,选民将决定参议员、州长以及其他州级和立法机构职位的归属。此次选举将是共和党通过新国会选区地图来提高该党在势均力敌的众议院中保持控制权机会后的首次选举。

ROBERT YOON WASHINGTON — Florida Republicans will try to extend their dominance in statewide elections Tuesday as voters decide races for Senate, governor and other state and legislative offices. The election will mark the first under a new congressional map adopted by Republicans to boost the party’s chances of keeping control of the closely divided House.

曾经是全国势均力敌的最关键摇摆州,佛罗里达州在过去四分之一世纪里稳步右倾。在2000年总统大选时,民主党在选民登记方面相对于共和党保持了数十年的优势。这一优势逐渐消失,直到2021年登记在册的共和党人数量超过了民主党人。如今,佛罗里达州共和党选民比民主党选民多出150万。

Once the nation’s most evenly divided swing state , Florida has shifted steadily to the right in the last quarter century. At the time of the 2000 presidential election, Democrats had held a voter registration advantage over Republicans for decades. That advantage would erode until 2021 when registered Republicans overtook registered Democrats. Today, there are 1.5 million more Republicans in Florida than Democrats.

在州长竞选中,民主党提名了一名前共和党人来带领他们走出选举低谷。前众议员大卫·乔利在8月18日的初选中以61%的得票率击败了其他五名候选人。乔利走上了一条不寻常的道路,以民主党人身份竞选州长,他在2018年离开共和党后,于2025年加入民主党。

In the race for governor, Democrats have nominated a former Republican to lead them out of the electoral doldrums. Former Rep. David Jolly defeated five other candidates in the Aug. 18 primary with 61% of the vote . Jolly took an unlikely path to running for governor as a Democrat, joining the party in 2025 after leaving the GOP in 2018.

他选择前民主党众议员格温·格雷厄姆作为竞选搭档。格雷厄姆是已故的鲍勃·格雷厄姆的女儿,后者是长期担任参议员和州长的民主党人。

He has tapped former Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham as his running mate. Graham is the daughter of the late Bob Graham, the longtime Democratic senator and governor.

共和党提名人是众议员拜伦·唐纳兹,他在总统唐纳德·特朗普的背书帮助下,在11名候选人的初选中获胜。唐纳兹获得了约48%的初选选票,几乎是亚军、副州长杰伊·柯林斯得票数的两倍。唐纳兹在2024年总统初选中支持特朗普而非共和党州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯,并曾被视为当年特朗普可能的竞选搭档人选。自上个月总统发起中期选举竞选攻势以来,特朗普和副总统JD·万斯分别在佛罗里达州为唐纳兹助选。另有六名独立或第三党候选人也在选票上。

The Republican nominee is Rep. Byron Donalds , who won the 11-candidate primary with the help of an endorsement from President Donald Trump. Donalds received about 48% of the primary vote, almost double that of the runner-up, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins . Donalds backed Trump over Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in the 2024 presidential primaries and was considered as a possible Trump running mate that year. Trump and Vice President JD Vance have each campaigned for Donalds in Florida since the president launched his midterm campaign push last month. Six other independent or third-party candidates are also on the ballot.

在今年的参议院竞选中,共和党参议员阿什利·穆迪(Ashley Moody)将捍卫自己的席位,对手是民主党州众议员安吉·尼克松(Angie Nixon)以及一位独立候选人。

In this year’s Senate race, Republican Sen. Ashley Moody defends her seat against Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon as well as an independent candidate.

2025年1月,穆迪担任州检察长时,德桑蒂斯任命她填补马可·鲁比奥(Marco Rubio)留下的空缺席位,后者被特朗普提名为国务卿。她现在竞选是为了完成鲁比奥任期最后两年。

Moody was state attorney general in January 2025 when DeSantis appointed her to fill the seat vacated by Marco Rubio, who was tapped by Trump to be secretary of state. She is now running to complete the final two years of Rubio’s term.

尼克松是一位民主社会主义者,在8月的初选中以56%的得票率击败了退役陆军中校亚历山大·温德曼(Alex Vindman),后者获得约44%的选票。温德曼曾任国家安全委员会工作人员,是2019年特朗普首次弹劾案的关键证人。他的兄弟尤金·温德曼(Eugene Vindman)于2024年当选弗吉尼亚州第七国会选区众议员。

Nixon, a democratic socialist, received 56% of the August primary vote against retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman , who received about 44%. Vindman, a former National Security Council staff member, was a key witness in Trump’s first impeachment in 2019. His brother, Eugene, was elected to Congress from Virginia’s 7th District in 2024.

如果当选,唐纳兹(Donalds)将成为佛罗里达州首位黑人州长,也是全美首位民选黑人共和党州长。尼克松将成为该州首位黑人联邦参议员。

If elected, Donalds would become Florida’s first Black governor and the nation’s first elected Black Republican governor. Nixon would become the state’s first Black U.S. senator.

佛罗里达州民主党在全州范围选举中,尤其是州长选举中,面临长期低迷。民主党上一次赢得州长职位已是30多年前。德桑蒂斯在2022年以19个百分点的优势击败前州长查理·克里斯特(Charlie Crist)成功连任,后者也是一位前共和党人、后转为独立人士、再转为民主党人。民主党上一次赢得佛罗里达州联邦参议员席位是在2012年。

Florida Democrats have faced a drought in statewide elections, particularly for governor. A Democrat last won the governorship more than 30 years ago. DeSantis was reelected in 2022 with a 19-point margin over former Gov. Charlie Crist, another former Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat. Democrats last won a Florida U.S. Senate seat in 2012.

共和党于5月通过的新国会选区边界,实质上取消了最近由民主党人代表的四个国会选区。三位民主党现任议员在新划定的选区面临严峻挑战:凯西·卡斯托(Kathy Castor)在坦帕周边的第14选区,达伦·索托(Darren Soto)在奥兰多附近的第9选区,以及贾里德·莫斯科维茨(Jared Moskowitz)在南佛罗里达金海岸沿线的第25选区。

The new congressional boundaries Republicans enacted in May essentially eliminate four congressional districts most recently represented by Democrats. Three Democratic incumbents face tough challenges in newly drawn districts: Kathy Castor in the 14th District around Tampa, Darren Soto in the 9th District near Orlando and Jared Moskowitz in the 25th District in South Florida along the Gold Coast.

重新划分后的佛罗里达州南部第22国会选区也将出现激烈竞争。该选区几乎涵盖了目前以黑人为主的第20国会选区,该选区此前由民主党人希拉·切尔菲卢斯-麦考密克代表,她于4月辞职。新选区还包括目前第26和第18国会选区的大部分地区,这两个选区均为共和党大本营。

The redrawn 22nd Congressional District in South Florida also has a competitive race. It contains almost all of the current majority-Black 20th Congressional District, which had been represented by Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick before she resigned in April . It also includes large portions of the current 26th and 18th Congressional Districts, which are both heavily Republican.

在全州范围的选举中,民主党通常在奥兰多和塔拉哈西地区以及南部沿海的黄金海岸表现最好。共和党通常在北佛罗里达和狭长地带获得最强支持,在佛罗里达中部和墨西哥湾沿岸表现也不错。

In statewide elections, Democrats usually perform best in the Orlando and Tallahassee areas and in South Florida along the Gold Coast. Republicans usually post their strongest numbers in North Florida and the panhandle. They also do well in Central Florida and along the Gulf of Mexico.

坦帕湾周边的希尔斯伯勒县和皮尼拉斯县是关键的州级摇摆战场。特朗普在2024年险胜这两个县,而民主党人乔·拜登在2020年险胜这两个县。特朗普和民主党人希拉里·克林顿在2016年各赢下其中一个县。

Hillsborough and Pinellas counties around Tampa Bay are key state battlegrounds. Trump narrowly won both counties in 2024, while Democrat Joe Biden narrowly carried both in 2020. Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton split the counties in 2016.

杰克逊维尔所在的杜瓦尔县是另一个摇摆地区。特朗普在2024年和2016年险胜该县,而拜登在2020年险胜该县。

Duval County, home to Jacksonville, is another swing area. Trump narrowly carried it in 2024 and 2016, while Biden carried it narrowly in 2020.

南佛罗里达的迈阿密-戴德县也将是重点关注的关键县份。2024年,特朗普在拉美裔选民中取得显著进展,成为自1988年老布什以来首位赢得该县的共和党总统候选人。

Miami-Dade County in South Florida will also be a key county to watch. In 2024, Trump made significant inroads with Latino voters and became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the county since George H.W.

投票于当地时间晚上7点结束,即美国东部时间晚上7点和8点。该州大部分地区位于东部时区,投票于东部时间晚上7点结束。少数县份位于中部时区,投票于东部时间晚上8点结束。

Bush in 1988. Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. ET. Most of the state is in Eastern time, and polls there close at 7 p.m. ET. A few counties are in Central time, and polls there close at 8 p.m.

美联社将提供美国参议院、众议院、州长、州检察长、州首席财务官、州农业专员、州参议院、州众议院以及三项全州范围投票议题的选举结果并宣布胜者。佛罗里达州2022年参议院选举共投出约780万张选票。

ET. The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, attorney general, chief financial officer, agriculture commissioner, state Senate, state House and three statewide ballot measures. About 7.8 million votes were cast in Florida’s 2022 Senate election.

2022年参议院选举中,约65%的选票通过提前现场投票或邮寄方式投出。

About 65% of the vote in the 2022 Senate election was cast early in-person or by mail.

佛罗里达州最新的提前投票总数可在美联社的提前投票追踪器中查看。

The latest advance vote totals for Florida can be found in the AP’s advance vote tracker .

佛罗里达州各县预计将在当晚首次更新选票数据时,发布所有或几乎所有的提前现场投票和邮寄投票结果,这几乎总是在发布任何选举日现场投票结果之前进行。预计只有三个县会在首次更新中发布任何选举日现场投票结果。

Florida counties are expected to release all or almost all of their results from early in-person and mail voting in their first vote updates of the night, almost always before releasing any results from in-person Election Day voting. Only three counties are expected to release any in-person Election Day results in their first vote update.

在2024年大选中,美联社于美国东部时间晚上7点首次发布结果,当时该州大部分地区投票结束。计票进度于东部时间晚上7点16分左右达到半数。到东部时间晚上10点51分,约99%的总票数已完成计数。

In the 2024 general election, the AP first reported results at 7 p.m. ET as polls closed in most of the state. The vote count reached the halfway mark at about 7:16 p.m. ET. About 99% of total votes counted had been counted by 10:51 p.m. ET.

佛罗里达州法律规定,得票差距在总投票数0.5%或以内的竞选必须进行机器重新计票。如果机器重新计票后得票差距在总投票数0.25%或以内,则必须对过度投票和不足投票进行人工重新计票。如果美联社认定领先优势大到足以使重新计票或法律挑战无法改变结果,美联社可能会在面临重新计票的竞选中宣布胜者。

Florida requires a machine recount in races where the vote margin is 0.5% or less of the total votes cast. A manual recount of overvotes and undervotes is then required if the machine recount results in a vote margin of 0.25% or less of the total votes cast. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

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