特朗普的种族政治塑造了中期选举“奥胡安，你为什么非要把一切都和种族挂钩？”这是我在社交媒体上经常收到的抱怨。但如果不谈论种族，任何人又如何能诚实地讨论佛罗里达州的中期选举呢？
Trump’s racial politics shape midterm elections“Oh Juan, why do you have to make everything about race?”That is a common complaint I get on social media. But how can anyone honestly discuss the Florida midterm elections without talking about race?
让我们先从拉美裔选民说起，再看黑人和白人选民。根据NBC的报道，特朗普在拉美裔选民中的全国支持率仅为27%，远低于水线。考虑到特朗普在2024年赢得了佛罗里达州的拉美裔选票，以及全国拉美裔男性的多数支持，这无疑是一个政治震惊。
Let’s start with Latino voters, before looking at Black and white voters. President Trump’s national approval among Latino voters is way underwater at 27 percent, according to NBC. That is a political shock, given that Trump won the Latino vote in Florida in 2024 as well as the majority of Latino men nationwide.
在过去两年里，特朗普在拉美裔选民中的支持率已经暴跌——拉美裔选民约占该州选民的20%。如今他在这些选民中的民调表现如此糟糕，以至于众议员玛丽亚·埃尔维拉·萨拉扎尔（共和党-佛罗里达州）在一则广告中试图与特朗普的移民执法政策划清界限。
In the last two years, Trump’s numbers with Latinos, about 20 percent of the state’s voters, have fallen off the map. His polling with Latinos is now so bad that Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) ran an separating herself from Trump’s immigration enforcement.
“总统先生，你的一些移民执法行动已经走得太远了，”萨拉扎尔在广告中说。“那些在2024年帮助你进入白宫的西班牙裔如今感到被背叛了。”像萨拉扎尔这样的共和党人正竭力保住自己的政治生命。
“Mr. President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far,” Salazar said in the ad. “The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.”Republicans like Salazar are desperate to protect their political lives.
谁能忘记去年，“拉美裔支持特朗普”组织的古巴裔领袖本人曾面临ICE的驱逐？“拉美女性支持特朗普”组织的联合创始人去年也发出了类似的声音。她写道：“这不是我们投票所期望的。……我们正在目睹的是一些武断的措施，旨在追捕那些正在配合移民听证会的人。”佛罗里达州的城市甚至农村农场都曾成为ICE错误逮捕和驱逐无犯罪记录人士的场景，从而针对拉美裔人口。
Who can forget that last year the Cuban-born leader of “Latinos for Trump” himself faced deportation by ICE? The co-founder of “Latinas for Trump,” sounded a similar note last year. She wrote: “This is not what we voted for. … What we are witnessing are arbitrary measures to hunt down people who are complying with their immigration hearings.”Florida cities and even rural farms have been the scene of ICE tearing at the Latino population by wrongfully arresting and deporting people without criminal records.
在最近的一项NBC民调中，66%的拉美裔认为特朗普对非法移民的处理“已经走得太远了。”佛罗里达州的共和党州长和立法机构不仅未对特朗普的政策提出抗议，甚至还背书了一些。州里的共和党国会代表团也是如此，其中包括一名如今正竞选州长的黑人和一名如今正竞选美国参议院席位的白人女性。
Sixty-six percent of Latinos in a recent NBC poll agree that Trump’s handling of illegal immigration has “gone too far.”Florida’s Republican governor and legislature did nothing to protest Trump’s policies and even endorsed some of them. So did the state’s Republican congressional delegation, including a Black man now running for governor and a white woman now running for the U.S. Senate.
美国众议员拜伦·唐纳斯（共和党-佛罗里达州），州长候选人，坚持支持特朗普移民官员执行的移民突袭。这符合他努力证明的目标：尽管他是黑人，但他对特朗普及其硬右翼、MAGA品牌保守主义忠诚。
U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), the gubernatorial candidate, stood by the immigration raids executed by Trump’s immigration officers. It fit his efforts to prove that despite being Black, he is loyal to Trump and his hard-right, MAGA-brand conservatism.
唐纳斯在国会五年内没有任何标志性立法成就。但他是仅有的两名投票反对弹劾特朗普的黑人众议员之一，原因是特朗普煽动试图推翻2020年大选结果。在1月6日暴力冲入美国国会大厦的特朗普支持者中，包括一名挥舞大型邦联旗帜的男子。
Donalds had no signature legislative accomplishments in five years in Congress. But he was one of only two Black representatives to vote against impeaching Trump for inciting an attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election. The Trump supporters who violently surged into the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 included a man waving a large Confederate Flag.
同样对特朗普激进的移民行动保持沉默的是，正在竞选马尔科·卢比奥前参议员席位的州务卿的白人女性。
Also silent on Trump’s aggressive immigration actions is the white woman running for Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s former Senate seat.
参议员阿什利·穆迪（共和党-佛罗里达州），前佛罗里达州司法部长，以始终站在特朗普一边而闻名。她曾参与一起诉讼，挑战特朗普在2020年大选中的失败。直至今日，她仍拒绝承认特朗普输掉了选举。
Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.), formerly Florida’s attorney general, is best known for always standing with Trump. She signed on to a lawsuit contesting Trump’s defeat in the 2020 election. To this day, she refuses to concede that Trump lost.
穆迪的对手是一名黑人女性，州议员安吉·尼克松（民主党），美国民主社会主义者成员，是特朗普移民政策的强烈批评者，愿意指出戴面具的ICE特工仅凭口音和肤色就将拉美裔人从街上抓走。尼克松也在公开反对ICE对海地人的驱逐，指出佛罗里达州是全美海地人社区最多的州。
Moody’s opponent is a Black woman, state Rep. Angie Nixon (D), a member of the Democratic Socialists of America and a strong critic of Trump’s immigration policy, willing to point out the masked ICE agents grabbing Latinos off the street, often only on the basis of their accents and skin color. Nixon is also speaking out against ICE deportations of Haitians, noting Florida is home to the largest Haitian community of any state.
她最近说：“他们逃离了可怕的暴力和政治动荡，来到这里建立生活。”
“They fled horrific violence and political instability to build lives here,” she said recently.”
她支持弹劾特朗普及其内阁成员，因为“他们都犯了可被弹劾的罪行”，尼克松对《国会山报》说。与穆迪或唐纳兹不同，她愿意正视特朗普把墨西哥人污蔑为“强奸犯”的事实。尼克松还可以与该州的拉美裔谈论特朗普如何让古巴陷入缺乏足够石油或食品的困境。与她的对手不同，她不会忽视或为特朗普在其佛罗里达庄园与白人至上主义播客主持人尼克·富恩特斯共进感恩节晚餐的行为开脱。
She favors impeaching Trump and his Cabinet officers because “they’ve all committed impeachable offenses,” Nixon told The Bulwark. Unlike Moody or Donalds, she is willing to address the fact that Trump smeared Mexicans as “rapists.”Nixon can also talk to Latinos in the state about how Trump has left Cuba stalled without adequate oil or food. Unlike her opponents, she does not ignore or excuse that Trump famously shared Thanksgiving dinner at his Florida estate with the white supremacist podcaster Nick Fuentes.
唐纳兹在州长竞选中的对手是一名白人男子、前共和党人大卫·乔利。与唐纳兹不同，他明确表示反对特朗普利用种族问题在其MAGA支持者中煽动民粹主义愤怒。
Donalds’ opponent in the governor’s race is a white man and former Republican, David Jolly. Unlike Donalds, he is clear in standing opposed to Trump’s use of race to stir populist anger among his MAGA supporters.
乔利是2015年首批与特朗普划清界限的共和党人之一，当时特朗普提出禁止所有穆斯林进入美国。
Jolly was one of the first Republicans to separate himself from Trump in 2015 when Trump proposed to ban all Muslims from entering the U.S.
根据最近一次人口普查，佛罗里达州约有50%为非西班牙裔白人，30%为西班牙裔，15%为黑人。
According to the last Census, Florida is about 50 percent non-Hispanic white, 30 percent Hispanic and 15 percent Black.
其庞大的西班牙裔人口使其成为民调中显示民主党在中期选举中可能掀起胜利浪潮的关键指标。
Its large Hispanic population makes it a key measure inside polls showing a potential wave of victories for Democrats in the midterms.
佛罗里达州以外的一个典型例子是得克萨斯州——这个共和党的铁杆堡垒，拉美裔选民中有一位拉美裔女性正与现任州长展开激烈竞争。
A prime example outside of Florida is in the Republican stronghold of Texas, where Latino voters have a Latina running a tight race against the incumbent governor.
在佛罗里达州内，拉美裔选民大力支持民主党，可能会提升该州28个国会选区民主党众议院候选人的胜算。最有可能易手的席位位于南佛罗里达，那里拥有最集中的西班牙裔选民群体。
Inside Florida, a strong showing of Latinos voting for Democrats could lift Democratic House candidates across the state’s 28 congressional districts. The seats most likely to flip are in South Florida, which has the largest concentration of Hispanic voters.
全国民主党最好开始关注并投入资源。如果他们赢得佛罗里达州，将为2028年总统大选开辟新道路，沿途伴随着种族态度的变化。请记住，佛罗里达州曾两次投票支持贝拉克·奥巴马总统。
National Democrats had better start paying attention and investing resources. If they turn Florida, it will open new paths to the presidency in 2028, lined with changing racial attitudes. Keep in mind that Florida voted twice for President Barack Obama.
我的社交媒体批评者是对的：并非所有事情都与种族有关。但今年佛罗里达州的中期选举绝对与特朗普的种族政治的后果有关。
My social media critics are right: not everything is about race. But this year’s midterms in Florida are absolutely about fallout from Trump’s racial politics.
胡安·威廉姆斯是福克斯新闻频道的高级政治分析员，也是获奖的民权史学家。他是新书《新奖赏：这些眼睛的崛起——美国第二次民权运动的兴起》的作者。
Juan Williams is senior political analyst for Fox News Channel and a prize-winning civil rights historian. He is the author of the new book “New Prize for These Eyes: The Rise of America’s Second Civil Rights Movement.“