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哈马斯10月7日袭击三周年:以色列是否在数天前收到某国预警?Three years of October 7 Hamas attack. Was Israel alerted by a country days before?

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周三标志着致命的10月7日哈马斯袭击事件已过去三年。然而,以色列据称就在袭击发生前几天就收到了警报。根据美国众议院外交事务委员会主席迈克尔·麦考尔的说法,以色列在哈马斯发动致命的跨境袭击前三天,曾收到埃及关于加沙可能发生重大暴力事件的警报。由哈马斯领导的对以色列南部的突袭始于2023年10月7日,成为以色列国民在该国历史上最致命的一天。

Wednesday marks three years of the deadly October 7 Hamas attack. However, Israel had reportedly been alerted about the possibility of an attack just days before. Israel was alerted by Egypt about the possibility of a major violent incident from Gaza three days before Hamas launched its deadly cross-border attack, according to Michael McCaul, chairman of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee. The Hamas-led surprise assault on southern Israel began on October 7, 2023, becoming the deadliest day for Israelis in the country's history.

麦考尔表示,该警告是在周三对美国立法者进行的闭门情报简报会上讨论的。他说,由于信息的机密性质,他无法提供更多细节。“我们知道埃及在三天前就警告以色列人,类似这样的事件可能会发生,”麦考尔在2023年简报会后对记者说,据法新社报道。“我不想深入涉及机密内容,但确实有警告被发出,”这位得克萨斯州的共和党人补充道。

McCaul said the warning was discussed during a closed-door intelligence briefing for US lawmakers on Wednesday. He said he could not provide further details because of the classified nature of the information. “We know that Egypt has warned the Israelis three days prior that an event like this could happen,” McCaul told reporters after the briefing in 2023, according to AFP.“I don't want to get too much into classified, but a warning was given,” the Texas Republican added.

“我认为问题在于警告的级别。”埃及表示已发出多次警报。一名埃及情报官员也在2023年告诉美联社,开罗曾多次警告以色列官员称,“某件大事”正在加沙被策划。“我们已经警告他们,局势爆发即将到来,而且很快,而且规模会很大。”

“I think the question was at what level.”Egypt says it issued repeated warningsAn Egyptian intelligence official also told the Associated Press in 2023 that Cairo had repeatedly warned Israeli officials that “something big” was being planned in Gaza.“We have warned them an explosion of the situation is coming, and very soon, and it would be big. But they underestimated such warnings,” the official said on condition of anonymity.

“但他们低估了这些警告的严重性,”这位不愿公开姓名的官员表示。据该官员称,以色列官员对来自加沙的威胁并未给予足够的重视,反而更关注西岸地区的局势。埃及控制着与加沙接壤的边境通道,经常在以色列和哈马斯之间担任调解者。内塔尼亚胡否认收到相关警告以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡否认以色列收到了关于此次袭击的任何具体警告。

According to the official, Israeli officials had played down the threat from Gaza and were instead more focused on the West Bank. Egypt, which controls crossings on its border with Gaza, has frequently acted as a mediator between Israel and Hamas. Netanyahu rejects warning reportsIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denied that Israel received a specific warning about the attack.

他称那些声称以色列事先得到了袭击预警的说法“完全是虚假新闻”。由于未能阻止这次袭击,以色列的情报机构受到了严厉的批评;这次袭击成为巴勒斯坦武装分子在以色列75年历史上发动的最致命的袭击事件。前英国情报机构负责人指出以色列的“自满情绪”2014年至2020年间担任英国外交情报机构负责人的亚历克斯·扬格爵士指出,此次袭击的发生是由于以色列内部的“制度性自满”。

Netanyahu called suggestions that Israel had been given advance notice of the deadly incursion “totally fake news”.Israeli intelligence agencies have faced intense scrutiny over their failure to prevent the attack, which became the deadliest assault by Palestinian militants in Israel's 75-year history. Former UK intelligence chief points to complacencySir Alex Younger, who led the UK's foreign intelligence agency from 2014 to 2020, said the attack was possible because of what he described as “institutional complacency” in Israel.

在接受BBC Radio 4《Today Podcast》节目采访时,扬格表示以色列可能认为哈马斯不会再次发动大规模冲突,因此那些与这一假设相悖的信息可能被忽视了。“我的推测是——虽然我并不了解内部情况——应该存在一些能够改变这种看法的情报数据,不过这些数据只有在事后回顾时才能被真正理解,”他说。他还指出,以色列过度依赖技术来监视加沙地区的情况可能导致了人们产生一种虚假的安全感。(报道来源:多家新闻机构)

Speaking to BBC Radio 4's Today Podcast, Younger said Israel may have believed Hamas was not seeking another major conflict. As a result, information that challenged that assumption may have been discounted.“It is my assumption - though I'm not on the inside - that there would be data breaking through that could have been interpreted differently and certainly would be with hindsight,” he said. Younger also said an excessive reliance on technology to monitor Gaza may have contributed to a false sense of security.(With inputs from agencies)