华尔街的策略师们对于美国债券收益率究竟会在年底大幅下跌还是继续攀升至新高存在分歧。
Street strategists are divided over whether US bond yields will come tumbling down by the end of the year or keep pushing up to new highs.
以高盛集团的威廉·马歇尔为代表的一些人依然坚持看涨观点，他们认为市场对通胀及政府债务激增的担忧已经过度，这有望推动收益率在年底出现反弹。而巴克莱资本的美国利率研究主管安舒尔·普拉丹等人则认为，收益率可能继续上行并维持在高位。
Some, like Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s William Marshall, are sticking by their bullish calls, wagering that worries about inflation and swelling government debt loads have run too far and could set the stage for a potential rally into the end of the year. Others, like Anshul Pradhan, head of US rates research at Barclays Capital, say yields may keep climbing and stay there.
不过，未来的走势仍难以预测。目前市场受到诸多不确定因素的影响：伊朗战争引发的能源价格震荡、美联储加息政策的转向，以及推动经济高速发展的前所未有的人工智能热潮。本周三，10年期美国国债收益率一度升至5.36%，30年期收益率更是突破5.7%，这一水平自2002年以来都未曾出现。以下是多家大型投资银行的策略师们的预测：美国银行全球利率策略联席主管马克·卡巴纳；花旗集团全球市场利率衍生品策略师迈克尔·张；德意志银行美国利率研究主管马修·拉斯金；高盛美国利率策略主管威廉·马歇尔；摩根大通全球利率策略主管杰伊·巴里；摩根士丹利利率策略师马丁·托比亚斯。
That doesn’t mean they see a predictable road ahead. The market is driven by numerous factors that are clouding the outlook, including the energy-price shock of the Iran war, the Federal Reserve’s pivot toward raising rates and the unprecedented AI boom that is pouring fuel on the economy. On Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped as high as 5.36% and the 30-year rate shot over 5.7%, levels last seen in 2002. Here’s what strategists from some major investment banks expect: Mark Cabana, co-head of global rates strategy at Bank of America Corp. Michael Chang, interest-rate derivatives strategist at Citigroup Global Markets Matthew Raskin, US head of rates research at Deutsche Bank AG William Marshall, head of US rates strategy at Goldman Sachs Jay Barry, head of global rates strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Martin Tobias, rates strategist at Morgan Stanley