根据《华尔街日报》本月对经济学家的调查，更高的债券收益率短期内不会消失。这意味着，寻求新抵押贷款的人、计划借款的企业以及负债累累的联邦政府将继续面临压力。
Higher bond yields won’t disappear any time soon, according to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month. That means continued pressure on anyone looking for a new mortgage, businesses planning to borrow and the heavily indebted federal government.
基准的10年期收益率从年初的4.2%升至本周的5.1%，大约四分之三的经济学家认为它将在今年年底达到5%或更高。超过三分之一的经济学家预计它将在2027年之前一直维持在5%或更高。
The benchmark 10-year yield rose from 4.2% at the start of the year to 5.1% this week, and roughly three-quarters of economists think it will end this year at 5% or higher. More than a third expect it to remain at 5% or higher through 2027.
本次调查共收到71位来自学术、金融和商业领域的经济学家的预测。并非所有受访者都回答了每个问题。
The latest survey received forecasts from 71 academic, financial and business economists. Not all respondents answered every question.
对持续高收益率的预测反映了增长改善、通胀压力促使美联储提升短期利率以及对美国财政轨迹的担忧等多种因素的综合影响。
The forecasts for sustained higher yields reflect a mix of improving growth, inflationary pressures that have prompted the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates and concerns about the U.S. fiscal trajectory.
更高债券收益率预测的一个原因是油价。经济学家预测，美国原油价格基准将在2027年底降至每桶约75美元，较周五收盘时的101美元有所下降，但高于2月底美国和以色列对伊朗发动袭击前的67美元。因此，他们对以消费者价格指数衡量的通胀预测将在2027年底降至2.3%。小组成员在9月CPI报告发布前提供了这些预测。
One reason for the higher bond yield forecast is oil. Economists forecast that the U.S. oil-price benchmark will end 2027 at about $75 a barrel, down from $101 at the close on Friday but up from $67 before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February. In turn, their forecasts for inflation as measured by the consumer-price index fall to 2.3% by the end of 2027. The panelists provided forecasts before the release of the September CPI report.
与此同时，经济学家预计，未来一年经济将平均每月增加5.6万个就业岗位。
Meanwhile, economists expect the economy to add 56,000 jobs a month on average over the next year.
小组将通胀调整后的年化国内生产总值增长预测从7月调查的2%大幅上调至第三季度的3.1%。在两次调查中均提供预测的64位经济学家中，有60人认为本季度增长将呈上升趋势。
The panel sharply revised its forecast for growth in inflation-adjusted annualized gross domestic product to 3.1% for the third quarter, up from 2% in the July survey. Of 64 economists who provided forecasts in both surveys, 60 saw growth for the quarter moving higher.
在每次调查中，我们都会向小组成员提出若干选择题。以下是两个与中期选举相关的问题。选择一个答案以查看经济学家的立场。
In each survey, we ask panelists several multiple-choice questions. Here are two related to the midterm elections. Select a response to see where the economists landed.
我们还要求小组成员就各种主题发表评论。以下是他们部分言论的摘选。
We also ask our panelists to comment on a range of subjects. Here’s a sampling of what they said.
[视频] 债券收益率飙升对您的投资组合意味着什么 请写信给彼得·桑蒂利（peter.santilli@wsj.com）和安东尼·德巴罗斯（anthony.debarros@wsj.com）
[video] What Surging Bond Yields Mean for Your Portfolio Write to Peter Santilli at peter.santilli@wsj.com and Anthony DeBarros at anthony.debarros@wsj.com