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美国消费者新闻与商业频道

10年期美国国债收益率转高,交易员消化通胀数据并等待就业报告Pressure on U.S. Treasurys eases after 30-year yield hits highest level since 2002

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美国国债收益率出现波动,交易员在权衡8月低于预期的美国通胀数据的同时,正等待本周晚些时候公布的9月就业报告。

Treasury yields wavered as traders weighed lighter-than-expected U.S. inflation data for August as they awaited the September jobs report due later in the week.

2年期美国国债收益率最新变化不大,而10年期国债收益率则上升近4个基点至5.293%,在盘中早些时候短暂回落后有所回升。该基准收益率交易水平接近2007年高点。30年期美国国债收益率上涨近5个基点至5.641%,接近2002年以来的最高水平。1个基点等于0.01%,且收益率与价格呈反向变动。

2-year Treasury note yield was last little changed, while the yield was nearly 4 basis points higher at 5.293%, recovering after a brief pullback earlier in the session. The benchmark yield traded near 2007 highs. The 30-year Treasury bond was up almost 5 basis points at 5.641%, near its highest level since 2002. One basis point equals 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.

据美联储衡量通胀的主要指标显示,周三公布的数据显示,8月消费者价格同比涨幅小于预期。

Consumer prices were reported Wednesday to have posted a smaller-than-expected increase in August compared to the same period a year ago, according to the Federal Reserve's primary measure of inflation.

美国商务部周三报告称,个人消费支出价格指数上月经季节性调整后上涨0.3%,使12个月累计涨幅达到3.4%。道琼斯调查的经济学家此前预计涨幅分别为0.3%和3.7%。“调整风帆”FWDBONDS首席经济学家克里斯托弗·鲁普基在最新数据发布后写道:“总而言之,8月的通胀之火并未像市场预期的那样猛烈,随着投资者重新思考需要多少次美联储加息才能使通胀回落至目标水平,债券收益率正在‘调整风帆’。”

personal consumption expenditures price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.3% last month, putting the 12-month gain at 3.4%, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for increases of 0.3% and 3.7% respectively. 'Adjusting their sails' "Net, net, the inflation fire is not burning as hot as markets expected in August, and bond yields are adjusting their sails as investors rethink exactly how many Fed rate hikes might be needed to keep inflation moving back down to target," Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, wrote in response to the latest release.

剔除食品和能源后,8月核心个人消费支出价格指数上涨0.2%,使年度核心通胀率降至3%。此前的预期分别为0.3%和3.3%。

Excluding food and energy, PCE posted a 0.2% increase in August that put the annual core level at 3%. The respective forecasts were for 0.3% and 3.3%.

尽管美联储官方遵循整体个人消费支出价格指数,但官员们通常认为核心数据是衡量长期通胀趋势的更好指标。

Though the Fed officially follows the headline PCE number, officials generally consider the core reading a better gauge of longer-term inflation trends.

周三关于通胀的好消息,是在美联储官员最近发表的评论之后出现的;这些评论重新调整了市场对货币政策的预期。本月早些时候,交易者们预计美联储在10月加息的概率超过80%;但根据CME Group的FedWatch工具显示,周三的数据发布后,这一概率下降到了约37%,同时交易者们将下一次加息的时间推迟到了12月。

The good news on inflation Wednesday came after recent commentary from Federal Reserve officials led to a repricing of monetary policy expectations. At one point this month, traders priced in a more than 80% chance of a quarter-point rate hike in October. Those odds sat around 37% after Wednesday's release, with traders pushing the next expected increase to December, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

数据公布之初,债券收益率一度下跌,但随着交易者们开始关注将于周五上午8:30(东部时间)发布的9月美国就业报告,收益率又重新回升。经济学家预计本月美国经济将新增8.4万个就业岗位。如果周五的就业数据比预期更为强劲(就像周三的ADP私营部门就业报告一样),那么债券收益率很可能会进一步上升。

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Yields initially moved lower on the data, though they turned back higher as traders began looking ahead to the September U.S. jobs report, due Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect the economy added 84,000 jobs this month. If Friday's numbers come in hotter than expected — as did Wednesday's ADP private payrolls report — it could send yields higher.