印度发电站的煤炭库存已接近五年来的最低水平，相当于全国超过40%燃煤发电能力的电厂，其煤炭储备仅剩四天甚至更少，这一水平增加了大范围停电的风险。
Coal inventories at India’s power stations are close to a five-year low, with plants equivalent to more than 40% of the nation’s coal-fired capacity left with just four days of reserves or even less, a level that raises the risk of widespread blackouts.
异常温暖的天气和不稳定的降雨，使得从白天到10月期间，制冷、灌溉和工业领域的能源需求持续强劲。而按照常理，10月这一月份，整个次大陆的天气本应开始转凉。与此同时，强降雨导致部分煤矿停工，铁路运输能力持续瓶颈，煤炭供应因此受到干扰，迫使发电厂不得不消耗库存。
Unusually warm temperatures and erratic rains have kept demand for cooling, irrigation and industry strong through the day well into October, a month when the weather should typically begin to cool across the subcontinent. The supply of coal, meanwhile, has been disrupted by heavy downpours that stopped work at some mines, and by continued bottlenecks in rail capacity — forcing plants to dip into inventories.
截至10月4日，约有69座发电厂——占全国燃煤发电设施的超过五分之二——的燃料仅能维持四天或更短，这是发电厂运营商设定的最低警戒线。这一水平为2021年12月以来的最低值，当时印度及该地区其他主要能源消费国正经历后疫情时代的能源危机，工业活动的恢复耗尽了本就紧张的库存。
As of Oct. 4, some 69 power stations — more than two-fifths of the nation’s coal power fleet — had fuel for just four days or less, a level monitored as a minimum by plant operators. That’s the lowest since December 2021, during a post-pandemic energy crisis that hit India and other major consumers in the region, as the return of industries ran down depleted stockpiles.
过去几十年间，印度的太阳能和风能发展迅速，但煤炭仍贡献了该国近70%的电力，这使得电力系统容易受到天气事件、运输中断或煤矿罢工的影响。在库存告急的发电厂中，近90%位于远离煤矿的地区。
India has seen breakneck solar and wind growth over the past decades, but coal still produces nearly 70% of electricity in the country, leaving the power system vulnerable to weather events, disruptions in transport or strikes at mines. Almost 90% of plants with low inventories are located away from coal mines.
此次供应中断的影响可能将持续到明年夏季，因为从10月到次年2月这段时间通常是国家最凉爽的时期，也是重建煤炭库存的短暂窗口期。任何中断都可能妨碍发电厂为应对热浪或突发性需求激增所做的准备工作。
The disruption could have effects lasting into next summer, as the months through February, usually the coolest period in the country, offer a narrow window to rebuild inventories. Any interruption could hamper power plants’ efforts to prepare for heatwaves or unexpected spikes in demand.
Elara Capital India Pvt. 的研究高级副总裁 Rupesh Sankhe 表示：“未来几个月随着天气转凉，电力系统将得到一些喘息的机会，配电公司届时可以实施日常限电措施来降低需求。”
“As the weather cools down over the next few months, it would give some breathing room to the system, allowing distribution utilities to carry out some daily load shedding to reduce demand,” said Rupesh Sankhe, senior vice president for research at Elara Capital India Pvt.
与此同时，印度煤炭公司和铁路部门需要确保向发电站稳定供应燃料，以便我们为夏季做好充分准备。
“Meanwhile, Coal India and railways will need to ensure supplies to power stations pick up so that we are well prepared for the summer.”