NADIA LATHAN/CalMatters 想知道共和党政治圈里谁是谁吗?看看那些为加州选民身份验证计划提供资金的大额捐赠者就知道了。
NADIA LATHAN/CalMatters Want to know who’s who in Republican politics? Look no further than the megadonors bankrolling California’s voter ID initiative.
伊利诺伊州亿万富翁、包装用品巨头理查德·乌伊莱恩(Richard Uihlein)已向保守派事业投入数千万美元,此次他向支持共和党立场的39号提案(Proposition 39)竞选活动捐赠了1700万美元。该提案要求选民在投票时出示驾照或其他政府颁发的身份证件。
Illinois billionaire packing supply magnate Richard Uihlein, who has poured tens of millions of dollars into conservative causes, has contributed $17 million to the campaign for Proposition 39 , a GOP-backed ballot measure to require voters to show a driver’s license or other government ID to vote.
乌伊莱恩以及其他财力雄厚的共和党捐赠者的参与表明,保守派将39号提案视为对特朗普总统扩大限制选民措施这一行动的支持度测试,也关乎未来关键摇摆州的支持情况。
Uihlein’s involvement and that of other deep-pocketed Republican donors is a signal that conservatives view Prop. 39 as a test of support for future battleground states in the broader push by President Donald Trump to tighten voter restrictions.
与他一同参与的是南加州商人史蒂文·布雷(Steven Bray),他向该竞选活动提供了超过300万美元的贷款,并直接捐赠了5万美元。右翼政治组织“改革加州”(Reform California)、科技企业家卡梅伦和泰勒·温克勒沃斯(Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss),以及罗伯特·F·肯尼迪小儿子(Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)前总统竞选搭档妮可·沙纳汉(Nicole Shanahan)也是主要捐赠者。他们合计已帮助该竞选活动筹集了超过2800万美元——比选举日一个月前对手筹集的金额多了1100万美元。
Uihlein is joined by Southern California businessman Steven Bray, who loaned the campaign more than $3 million and gave $50,000 outright. The right-wing political group Reform California , tech entrepreneurs Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss and former Robert F. Kennedy Jr. presidential running mate Nicole Shanahan are also major donors. Combined, they have helped the campaign rake in more than $28 million — $11 million more than their opponents a month from Election Day.
39号提案的支持者认为,在投票点要求出示身份证件将确保加州选举的安全,并表示这一要求与乘坐飞机或购买酒精饮料需要身份证件并无不同。支持者还指出,根据美国各州立法者全国会议的数据,已有36个州要求或建议选民在投票时出示某种形式的身份证明。
Prop. 39’s supporters argue that requiring ID at polling places will ensure California’s elections are secure, and say the mandate is no different from needing an ID to fly on a plane or buy alcohol. Proponents also point out that 36 states request or require voters to show some form of identification at the polls, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures .
目前,加州选民在投票时需要驾照和社会保障号码,但在实际投票时并不强制出示。如果39号提案通过,邮寄选票的选民则必须在选票上写下自己社会保障号码或其他政府签发证件的最后四位数字。
California voters currently need a driver’s license and Social Security number to to vote but not when they cast their ballots. If Prop. 39 passes, voters who mail their ballots would have to write the last four digits of their Social Security or other government-issued number on their ballots.
对于该州实力薄弱的共和党来说,这是一个期待已久的时刻。几十年来,他们一直在深蓝州加利福尼亚努力将选民身份验证措施列入选票。
It’s a long-awaited moment for the state’s weak Republican Party which has fought for decades to put a voter ID measure on the ballot in deep blue California.
共和党人、州议会成员卡尔·德马奥创立了“改革加州”组织,并主导了这一倡议。这位来自圣地亚哥的新任议员所领导的团体资助了此次选票征集活动,成功收集了超过一百万个签名,使该措施得以进入投票程序——此前类似提案在民主党控制的立法机构中均已失败。
Assemblymember Carl DeMaio , a Republican, created Reform California and is spearheading the initiative. The freshman San Diego lawmaker’s group funded the ballot operation that collected more than a million signatures to qualify the measure after similar proposals failed in the Democratic-controlled Legislature.
“共同行动”组织以及其他反对该措施的投票权团体担心,第39号提案会不必要地阻止那些无法找到或没有政府签发身份证件的人投票。他们认为,这将不成比例地影响并不公平地惩罚近期搬家、更改姓氏或收入较低的人群,以及其他历来支持民主党的群体。民权倡导者还指出,由于选民欺诈极为罕见,这项措施并无必要。
Common Cause and other voting rights groups that oppose the measure fear Prop. 39 would unnecessarily block from voting citizens who can’t find or don’t have a government-issued ID. They argue that this would disproportionately impact, and unfairly penalize, people who recently moved, changed their last name or are low income — and other groups who historically have supported Democrats. Civil rights advocates also argue the measure is unnecessary because voter fraud is rare.
“在美国的选举中,你被雷击中的可能性,比实施选民欺诈还要高,”加州妇女选民联盟执行主任珍妮·法雷尔表示。“完全没有必要在加利福尼亚增加这些额外的负担和安全检查点。”尽管多项研究显示,美国选举中并无大规模选民欺诈的证据,但克莱尔蒙特·麦肯纳学院的政治学家约翰·皮特尼表示,这类说法在极右翼圈子中已经流传了几十年。
“You are more likely to be struck by lightning than you are to commit voter fraud in a U.S. election,” California League of Women Voters executive director Jenny Farrell said. “There’s no need to add on these additional burdens and security checkpoints in California.”Despite numerous studies showing there is no widespread evidence of voter fraud in U.S. elections, Claremont McKenna College political scientist John Pitney said such claims have circulated for decades in far-right circles.
自民权运动期间非裔美国人的投票权得到扩展以来,一些州通过选票措施收紧投票法规的尝试日益增多。
Attempts to constrict voter laws through ballot measures have increased in some states ever since the expansion of voting rights to African Americans during the Civil Rights Movement.
然而,在特朗普第一任期内,由于总统错误地声称2020年大选存在舞弊,对选民欺诈的担忧迅速加剧。不久之后,德马奥和其他共和党议员曾提出过未能通过的限制投票法案,随后他转而于去年主导发起了一项由公民推动的选票倡议。
But fears about voter fraud accelerated during the first Trump administration when the president falsely claimed the 2020 election was stolen. Shortly after, DeMaio and other GOP lawmakers introduced unsuccessful bills to tighten voter restrictions before he pivoted to orchestrating a citizen-led ballot initiative last year.
“最近,特朗普一直在鼓吹有大量无证移民参与投票的说法,但没有任何证据支持这一观点,”皮特尼说道。资助反对39号提案的民主党人同样都是加州政坛的重量级人物。
“Recently Trump has promoted the idea that large numbers of undocumented people are voting, for which there isn’t any evidence,” Pitney said. Democrats bankrolling the opposition to Prop. 39 are also a who’s who of California politics.
州民主党是最大捐款方,捐款金额接近550万美元,其次是索诺马地区的格拉顿兰彻里亚联合印第安人部落,捐款200万美元。
The state Democratic Party is by far the largest contributor at nearly $5.5 million, followed by the Sonoma-area Federated Indians of Graton Rancheria with $2 million.
长期支持民主党的捐赠者、电影制作人兼Netflix首席执行官里德·黑斯廷斯的妻子帕蒂·奎林,以及房地产投资者兼慈善家奎因·德拉尼,各自捐赠了150万美元。服务员工国际工会等劳工界巨头也贡献了100万美元。
Longtime Democratic donors Patty Quillin, a film producer and wife of Netflix CEO Reed Hastings, and Quinn Delaney, a real estate investor and philanthropist, have each pitched in $1.5 million. Labor heavyweights such as the Service Employees International Union have contributed $1 million.
民主党州长候选人哈维尔·贝塞拉和民主党议会众议院议长罗伯特·里瓦斯共同成立了一个筹款委员会,为“反对”阵营筹集资金,而美国参议员亚历克斯·帕迪利亚也出席了相关活动进行拉票。
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra and Democratic Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas have created a joint committee to raise money for the No campaign and U.S. Sen Alex Padilla is stumping at events.
根据州务卿办公室的数据,目前近90%的加州选民通过邮寄方式投票。这意味着,如果该提案通过,绝大多数选民将不得不在选票上填写自己的社会保障号码或驾照号码。
Nearly 90% of Californians now vote by mail, according to the secretary of state’s office . That means the vast majority of voters would be required to write their Social Security or driver’s license number on their ballot should the initiative pass.
“反对39号提案”竞选活动的发言人特诺奇·弗洛雷斯表示,许多人对此会感到不安。弗洛雷斯说:“此举旨在创造新的途径来拒绝有效的邮寄选票。”
Many people aren’t going to be comfortable with that, No on 39 campaign spokesperson Tenoch Flores said. “This is about creating new avenues to reject valid mail ballots,” Flores said.
“支持39号提案”竞选活动的发言人梅雷迪思·希尔兹告诉CalMatters,该竞选团队无人接受采访。德马奥也拒绝就这篇报道接受CalMatters的采访。乌伊莱因则未回应要求评论的电话和电子邮件。
“Yes on 39” spokesperson Meredith Shields told CalMatters that no one from the campaign could be made available for an interview. DeMaio declined an interview with CalMatters for this story. Uihlein did not respond to phone calls and emails requesting comment.
来自威斯康星州包装公司Uline的创始人、超级捐赠者Uihlein夫妇,已向“恢复美国政治行动委员会”(Restoration of America PAC)投入数百万美元。该超级政治行动委员会经常为伊利诺伊州和威斯康星州的共和党候选人提供资金。仅今年,Uihlein夫妇就向该政治行动委员会捐赠了3500万美元,而第39号提案则是他们资助旨在设定议程的保守派议题的最新目标。
Megadonor Uihlein and his wife, founders of the Wisconsin-based packaging company Uline, have poured millions into the Restoration of America PAC, a super PAC that frequently bankrolls Republican candidates in Illinois and Wisconsin. The Uihleins have donated $35 million to the PAC this year alone, and Prop. 39 is the latest target in their effort to fund agenda-setting conservative causes.
Shanahan是一名律师,也是谷歌高管Sergey Brin的前妻,她已向“支持”阵营投入了37万美元,而Winklevoss兄弟则各自捐赠了25万美元。
Shanahan, an attorney and the former wife of Google executive Sergey Brin, has funneled $370,000 into the Yes campaign, while the Winklevoss brothers have each contributed $250,000.
索诺马州立大学政治学教授David McCuan表示,这些超级富豪对第39号提案表现出浓厚兴趣,表明共和党可能正打算在摇摆州复制类似策略。
The interest from the ultra-wealthy in Prop. 39 is a sign that the GOP could be looking to replicate a similar playbook in toss-up states, Sonoma State University political science Professor David McCuan said.
共和党支持者希望观察选民身份验证措施在民主党占主导地位的加利福尼亚州的效果究竟如何。如果其表现优于预期,这可能意味着类似的投票提案在密歇根州、威斯康星州或宾夕法尼亚州等更为温和的竞选州中也可能获得相当程度的支持。
Republican proponents want to see how well or poorly voter ID does in Democratic-heavy California. If it does better than expected, that might mean a similar ballot measure could be fairly popular in more moderate battleground states, such as Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.
McCuan说:“即使最终失败,只要结果优于预期,也会产生溢出效应。”
“There is a spillover effect if you do better than expected, even if you lose,” McCuan said.
2020年大选后,包括怀俄明州、肯塔基州和俄克拉荷马州在内的多个共和党执政州都采取了扩大选民限制的措施。尽管特朗普在选民中的支持率已降至历史低点,但共和党出人意料地成功将选民身份验证措施纳入了加利福尼亚州的投票议程。
Several Republican states moved to expand voter restrictions after the 2020 election, including Wyoming, Kentucky and Oklahoma. And while voter sentiment toward Trump is at historic lows, the GOP was surprisingly successful at getting the voter ID measure on the California ballot.
“支持39号提案”的电视竞选活动已开始播出广告,试图将该提案的支持者与特朗普区分开来;而“反对”阵营则在湾区发布了一则广告,其中出现了特朗普的图像,并将第39号提案描述为一种“权力攫取”。对于“支持”阵营而言,前路恐怕依然充满挑战。大多数选民对投票提案的默认立场是“反对”,这意味着该提案的支持者必须说服足够多的选民认同他们的观点。
The “Yes on 39” TV campaign has begun airing ads distancing the measure’s supporters from Trump, while the No campaign released an ad airing in the Bay Area featuring images of Trump and characterizations of Prop. 39 as a “power grab.”It’ll likely still be a tough road ahead for the Yes campaign. The default position for most voters is “no” on ballot propositions, meaning supporters of the measure will have to persuade enough voters to agree with them.
加州大学伯克利分校政府研究所于4月进行的一项民意调查显示,加州民众普遍支持要求选民在投票时出示身份证件,但当受访者了解到该措施的具体细节,例如其旨在打击所谓的选举舞弊行为时,支持率则降至50%以下。加州公共政策研究所9月的一项调查显示,对第39号提案的支持率已降至43%。
An April poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies showed Californians broadly support requiring voters to present identification at the polls, but it found that support dipped below 50% when respondents were given specific details about the measure, such as that it’s meant to combat alleged voter fraud. A Public Policy Institute of California poll in September found support for Prop. 39 has dropped to 43%.
尽管这一措施可能有助于提高自由派选民的投票率,但尚不清楚即使是如此具有争议性的议题,是否足以促使共和党人在总统不受欢迎的中期选举周期中走出家门投票。
While this could be effective at turning out liberal voters, it’s unclear how even a hot-button issue will be enough to get Republicans out in a midterm election cycle with an unpopular president.
皮特尼表示:“在‘蓝色浪潮’的选举中,通过一项带有‘红色’标签的提案非常困难。”
“It’s hard to pass a red-coded measure in a blue wave election,” Pitney said.
本文最初由CalMatters发布,并通过与美联社的合作进行传播。
This story was originally published by CalMatters and distributed through a partnership with The Associated Press.