随着下个月中期选举的临近，得克萨斯州已成为全国瞩目的焦点，民主党人对该州从联邦到地方各级选举的胜选前景愈发乐观。几个月来，该州竞争激烈的参议院选战一直占据着中期选举新闻的头条，但民主党人表示，他们在得州的其它竞选赛道上也看到了机会。民主党州长协会和伊利诺伊州民主党籍州长JB·普里茨克本周宣布，他们计划各自出资100万美元，以支持民主党人吉娜·伊诺霍萨竞选该州州长。
Texas has taken center stage ahead of next month’s midterm elections as Democrats grow more optimistic about their chances in the state up and down the ballot. For months, the state’s highly contested Senate race has dominated midterm headlines, but Democrats say they are seeing opportunity in other Texas contests as well. The Democratic Governors Association and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) announced this week they each plan to give $1 million to support Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the state’s gubernatorial race.
与此同时，随着民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科在民调中领先，共和党参议院候选人肯·帕克斯顿指责全国共和党人的内部录音遭到泄露，这在参议院选战中引发了震动。尽管如此，特朗普总统和万斯副总统仍多次前往该州，为孤星州的共和党人在竞争激烈的选战中助威。特朗普定于周三傍晚在圣安东尼奥与帕克斯顿以及共和党众议员候选人卡洛斯·德拉克鲁兹共同出席造势集会。
Meanwhile, leaked audio of Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton blaming the national GOP as Democrat James Talarico leads in the polls has rocked the Senate race. Still, President Trump and Vice President Vance have traveled multiple times to the state to bolster Lone Star State Republicans in competitive contests. Trump is set to rally alongside Paxton and Republican House candidate Carlos De La Cruz in San Antonio Wednesday evening.
曾领导参议员约翰·康宁2014年连任竞选的得州共和党策略师布伦丹·斯坦豪瑟表示：“得克萨斯州显然存在胜负悬念。”他补充道：“共和党人明白，他们面临着必须抵御的现实威胁；而民主党人则看到了一个可以转入全面进攻的现实机遇，他们有可能赢得一个美国参议院席位，甚至可能拿下州长宝座。”《纽约时报》与锡耶纳学院周六联合发布的民调显示，塔拉里科以7个百分点的优势领先帕克斯顿，而伊诺霍萨则以3个百分点的微弱优势领先得州现任州长格雷格·阿博特。
“Texas is clearly in play,” said Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas based GOP strategist who ran Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-Texas) 2014 reelection bid. “Republicans understand they have a real threat they need to defend against, and Democrats see a real opportunity where they can go on offense, and potentially win a U.S. Senate seat and maybe even the governor’s race as well," he added. A New York Times/Siena College poll from Saturday showed Talarico with a 7 percentage point lead over Paxton, while Hinojosa edged out Texas Gov. Greg Abbot by 3 points.
帕克斯顿的捐款人丹·埃伯哈特在谈到选情时表示：“我认为我们派援兵的时间太晚了。”周三，帕克斯顿在一次闭门筹款活动中的另一段言论录音被曝光，这位得州总检察长将自己在民调中的落后归咎于伊朗战争和高油价。据Axios获得的录音显示，帕克斯顿在闭门筹款活动中对捐款人和说客们表示：“这不是关税的问题……这是战争的问题，是汽油价格的问题，是柴油价格的问题。”
“I think we waited too long to send in the calvary,” said Paxton donor Dan Eberhart when asked about the state of the race. On Wednesday, another leak of Paxton's remarks from a closed-door fundraiser surfaced, with the state attorney general blaming the Iran war and high gas prices for his standing in the polls. “It’s not tariffs. … It’s the war, it’s gas prices, it’s diesel,” Paxton told donors and lobbyists at a closed-door fundraiser, according to audio obtained by Axios.
帕克斯顿竞选团队的发言人告诉该媒体，这一事件“根本算不上新闻”，并补充说，帕克斯顿承认了“每个得州人都已经知道的事实：汽油和柴油价格太高了”。一位共和党策略家则批评帕克斯顿对捐助者的言论“极其成问题”。这位策略家表示：“你为什么会说那些话？说实话，简直令人难以想象，你竟然会如此放松警惕，说出损害自己地位、损害总统地位，而且坦白说，只会助长本就充满挑战的负面叙事的话。”
A spokesperson for Paxton’s campaign told the outlet that the development is a “non-story,” adding that Paxton acknowledged “what every Texan already knows: gas and diesel prices are too high.”One Republican strategist blasted Paxton’s remarks to donors as “hugely problematic.”“Why would you say those things? I mean, it’s just unimaginable, to be honest, that you would let your guard down that much and say things that hurt your standing, the president’s standing, and frankly just feeds into an already challenging narrative,” the strategist said, Steinhauser called the intraparty squabbling “unhelpful.”
斯坦因豪泽称党内这种争吵“毫无帮助”。他说：“现在不是做这种事的时候。我不希望看到共和党人开始互相指责。我认为这会形成一种失败的思维定势，也会打击投票率。”他补充道：“确实已经出现了一种潜在的互相指责的苗头。”其他共和党人警告称，参议院竞选的戏剧性冲突可能会对该州的众议院选举产生不利影响，因为民主党正试图在11月夺回众议院的控制权。
“This is not the time to be doing that,” Steinhauser said. "I don’t want to see Republicans out there starting the blame game. I think that creates a psychology of losing. It creates a psychology of depressing turnout.”“There definitely is sort of an undercurrent of potential blame game that’s already starting,” he added. Other Republicans warn the Senate race’s drama could have a detrimental impact on the state’s House races, as Democrats seek to win back control of the lower chamber in November.
埃伯哈特表示：“帕克斯顿获胜至关重要。如果帕克斯顿落败，很可能意味着共和党会失去六个众议院席位。”本轮选举中，得州有六个具有竞争力的众议院选区，包括第9、15、23、28、34和35选区。阿博特和他的共和党同僚试图通过十年中期重新划分选区，将五个原本属于民主党的席位转向共和党，从而提升该党在国会选区地图上的胜算。
“It is important that Paxton wins,” Eberhart said. “A Paxton loss likely brings with it six House losses.”Texas is home to six competitive House races this cycle, including the 9th, 15th, 23rd, 28th, 34th, and 35th Districts. Abbott and his Republicans sought to boost their party’s chances on the congressional map by shifting five blue seats toward Republicans via mid-decade redistricting.
这一策略也在佛罗里达等其他“红色州”被效仿。然而，民主党预测，鉴于共和党面临的恶劣政治环境——包括特朗普在该州拉丁裔和西班牙裔选民中的支持率——他们的候选人有望在这些选区中表现更佳。一位民主党政治操盘手表示：“这是选区操纵大战中投出的第一块石头，而他们搞得一团糟。”
The strategy was replicated in other red states across the country including Florida. However, Democrats predict their candidates are on track to fare better in the races given the poor political environment for Republicans, including Trump’s standing with Latino and Hispanic voters in the state. “This was the first stone thrown in the gerrymander wars, and they f----- it up,” said one Democratic operative.
德克萨斯州共和党前执行主任查德·威尔班克斯表示，共和党赢得三到四个有竞争力的众议院席位是现实可行的。“当你试图赢得更多席位时，就会过度拉长选区范围。而德克萨斯州立法机构为改善我们本州的国会选区所做的一切，他们当时都认为是正确的做法。”威尔班克斯说道。特朗普周三访问位于圣安东尼奥的德克萨斯州第35选区，该选区正是经过重新划分的席位之一。
Chad Wilbanks, former executive director of the Texas Republican Party, said its realistic that Republicans win three to four competitive House seats. “When you try to pick up more seats, you stretch districts thin, and everything that the Texas Legislature did to improve our congressional seats here in Texas they felt was the right thing to do,” Wilbanks said. Trump's Wednesday visit to the Texas's 35th District in San Antonio is one of these redrawn seats.
在德克萨斯州竞争激烈的第15选区，众议员莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹（共和党）的兄弟卡洛斯·德拉克鲁兹正与民主党候选人约翰尼·加西亚展开角逐。“共和党为了挽救其岌岌可危的德克萨斯州选区划分策略，提出的最大方案就是让唐纳德·特朗普成为焦点。但问题只有一个——他的支持率已经跌入谷底，”民主党国会竞选委员会发言人麦迪逊·安德鲁斯表示。
Carlos De La Cruz, the brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R) in Texas's competitive 15th District, is facing Democrat Johnny Garcia. “Republicans’ big idea to save their flailing Texas dummymander is to put Donald Trump front and center. There’s just one problem — his approval numbers are in the toilet,” said Madison Andrus, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
另一方面，共和党人则坚持认为，总统是该党动员基本盘选民的最佳工具。“让特朗普总统来到德克萨斯州，正是共和党在中期选举中所需要的，因为他能够激活那些原本投票意愿较低的选民，正是这些选民在2024年助他获胜，”一位共和党工作人员说道。不过，有一位共和党人不会出席周三晚的集会，那就是阿博特。
Republicans, on the other hand, maintain the president is the party’s best tool to turnout the base. “Having President Trump come to Texas is exactly what the Republicans need in the midterms because he is activating our low propensity voters who powered him to a victory in 2024,” said one Republican operative. One Republican who will not be present at Wednesday night’s rally is Abbott.
这位州长以日程冲突为由，但此举在德克萨斯州和华盛顿都引起了关注。“他知道，与总统一同亮相，尤其是在圣安东尼奥这样的大城市市场，是一个极其糟糕的政治决策，”这位共和党策略师表示。另一些人则认为，阿博特的实际支持率可能高于公开民调所显示的水平，并指出问题并不一定在于他能否获胜，而在于他的胜选幅度。“他的表现可能略高于民调预测，但这无疑是一场真正的竞争，”斯坦哈user说道。
The governor cited scheduling conflicts, but the move raised eyebrows in Texas and Washington. “He knows that showing up with the president, and showing up with the president in a big city market like San Antonio is a really bad political idea,” the GOP strategist said. Others argue that Abbott is likely polling better than public polling suggests, adding that the issue isn’t necessarily whether he will win — rather the margins of his victory. “He’s probably overperforming the polling a little bit, but it’s a real race for sure,” Steinhauser said.