得克萨斯州在全州范围的选举中已有30多年未出现民主党获胜的局面，但这一纪录今年可能面临严峻考验。福克斯新闻最新发布的一项民调显示，虽然得克萨斯州可能选民倾向于让共和党保持对美国参议院的控制权，且现任共和党州长格雷格·阿博特在连任竞选中占据优势，但参议院竞选依然陷入僵局。
Texas hasn’t gone blue in a statewide race in more than 30 years, but that streak could face a serious test this year. A new Fox News poll finds that while Texas likely voters favor Republicans retaining control of the U.S. Senate and give incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott an edge in his re-election bid, the Senate race remains deadlocked.
这项于周三公布的调查显示，在竞逐接替参议员约翰·科宁席位的选举中，民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科与共和党肯·帕克斯顿在得克萨斯州可能选民中的支持率均为49%，打成平手。
The survey, released Wednesday, finds Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton tied at 49% each among Texas likely voters in the race to replace Sen. John Cornyn, who lost the GOP primary to President Trump-backed Paxton.
上个月，塔拉里科在可能选民中以2个百分点领先（51%比49%）。局势转为平局反映出帕克斯顿在保守派、农村选民、郊区女性以及初选中支持科宁的选民中巩固了支持率。
Last month, Talarico was up by 2 points among likely voters (51%-49%). The shift to a tie reflects Paxton consolidating support among conservatives, rural voters, suburban women and voters who backed Cornyn in the primary.
尽管帕克斯顿的支持率仍未达到特朗普2024年大选时的水平，但自9月以来，他在男性（+1）和女性（+1）选民中均略微增强了支持，而塔拉里科在两个群体中的支持率则分别略微下降（-1和-2）。
Although Paxton is falling short of Trump’s 2024 margins, he has strengthened his support a tad among both men (+1) and women (+1) since September, while Talarico slightly lost support (-1 and -2, respectively).
塔拉里科在黑人选民（+65个百分点）、城市选民（+29）、30岁以下选民（+28）以及受过大学教育的女性（+23）中领先幅度巨大。帕克斯顿的核心支持群体包括白人福音派基督徒（+52）、未受大学教育的白人男性（+32）、农村选民（+21）以及65岁及以上选民（+18）。
Talarico leads by wide margins among Black voters (+65 points), urban voters (+29), those under age 30 (+28), and women with a college degree (+23). Paxton’s strongest groups include White evangelical Christians (+52), White men without a college degree (+32), rural voters (+21) and those age 65 and up (+18).
调查显示，西班牙裔选民正重新转向民主党。根据得克萨斯州福克斯新闻选民分析，该群体在2020年曾以25个百分点支持时任总统乔·拜登，但在2024年却以1个百分点支持特朗普。这一关键投票群体如今以30个百分点（64%比34%）支持塔拉里科，并以29个百分点倾向于由民主党控制参议院。
The survey finds Hispanic voters swinging back toward the Democrats. After backing former President Joe Biden by 25 points in 2020, they favored Trump by 1 point in 2024, according to the Texas Fox News Voter Analysis. This key voting bloc now favors Talarico by 30 points (64%-34%) and prefers Democratic control of the U.S. Senate by 29 points.
总体而言，在参议院控制权问题上，得克萨斯州选民以4个百分点（51%比47%）选择共和党，高于9月的1个百分点。
Overall, when it comes to Senate control, Texans choose Republicans by 4 points (51% to 47%), up from +1 point in September.
塔拉里科更强的党派忠诚度是竞选胶着的另一个原因：98%的民主党人支持他，而90%的共和党人支持帕克斯顿。近三成非“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）派共和党人跨越党派界限支持塔拉里科。
Talarico’s stronger party loyalty is another reason the race is close: 98% of Democrats support him, compared with 90% of Republicans supporting Paxton. Nearly 3 in 10 non-MAGA Republicans cross party lines to back Talarico.
民主党在热情方面也保持优势：69%的民主党人对今年的选举极其关注，共和党人这一比例为61%。极其关注的选民以7个百分点的优势支持塔拉里科。
Democrats also retain an enthusiasm edge: 69% are extremely interested in this year’s election, compared with 61% of Republicans. Extremely interested voters back Talarico by 7 points.
共和党民调专家达伦·肖表示：“这场竞选将归结为两个基本问题。”他与民主党人克里斯·安德森共同主持福克斯新闻民调。“不满的共和党人会出来投票吗？如果会，他们是否会咬牙切齿地投给一个让他们有严重顾虑的候选人？”塔拉里科的净好感度为正，尽管仅为1个百分点（49%好感，48%反感），而帕克斯顿的评级则倒挂17个百分点（41%好感，58%反感）。在“双重讨厌者”——即对两位候选人均持负面看法的选民——中，帕克斯顿领先50个百分点。
"The race is going to come down to two basic questions," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who helps conduct the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. "Do disaffected Republicans show up and, if so, do they grit their teeth and vote for a candidate who they have serious reservations about?" Views of Talarico are net positive, albeit by just 1 point (49% favorable, 48% unfavorable), while Paxton’s ratings are underwater by 17 (41% favorable, 58% unfavorable). Among "double haters," voters who view both candidates negatively, Paxton leads by 50 points.
选民对两位候选人表达了相似程度的担忧：53%担心塔拉里科的立场过于自由派，而50%担心帕克斯顿与特朗普关系过密。这些担忧的强度几乎相同，36%对塔拉里科极其担忧，37%对帕克斯顿极其担忧。
Voters express similar levels of concern about both candidates: 53% worry Talarico’s positions are too liberal, while 50% are concerned Paxton is too close to Trump. The intensity of these concerns is nearly identical, with 36% extremely concerned about Talarico and 37% about Paxton.
2024年，特朗普在“孤星州”以近14个百分点的优势获胜，但他目前的工作表现评级倒挂9个百分点（45%赞成，54%反对）。尽管如此，帕克斯顿仍获得13%的特朗普不赞成者支持，而6%的特朗普赞成者支持塔拉里科。
In 2024, Trump won the Lone Star State by nearly 14 points, but his job rating is currently underwater by 9 points (45% approve, 54% disapprove). Still, Paxton draws support from 13% of voters who disapprove of Trump, while 6% of Trump approvers back Talarico.
在个人财务状况方面，与两年前相比，表示情况变差的选民（43%）比表示变好的（20%）多出一倍多；36%表示情况大致相同。
When it comes to their personal finances, more than twice as many voters say they are worse off (43%) than better off (20%) compared with two years ago; 36% say they are about the same.
情况变差的选民以45个百分点的优势支持塔拉里科，而情况变好（+49）或大致相同（+26）的选民则倾向帕克斯顿。
Voters who are worse off back Talarico by 45 points, while those who are better off (+49) or about the same (+26) favor Paxton.
州长选举让共和党多了一些喘息空间：阿博特以5个百分点的优势领先其民主党挑战者吉娜·伊诺霍萨（52%对47%），自9月以来保持不变。
The governor’s race gives Republicans more breathing room: Abbott edges his Democratic challenger, Gina Hinojosa, by 5 points (52% to 47%), unchanged since September.
阿博特的工作评价为正面（50%赞成，48%反对），几乎所有赞成者都在竞选中支持他，反对者中也有9%支持他。
Abbott has a positive job rating (50% approve, 48% disapprove), and nearly all who approve support him in the race, as do 9% of those who disapprove.
阿博特还受益于略强的党派忠诚度以及塔拉里科支持者中更多的分裂票现象：7%的塔拉里科支持者支持阿博特，相比之下，仅有2%的帕克斯顿支持者支持伊诺霍萨。
Abbott also benefits from slightly stronger party loyalty and more ticket-splitting among Talarico supporters: 7% support Abbott, compared with 2% of Paxton supporters who back Hinojosa.
本次民调于2026年10月15日至19日进行，由灯塔研究公司（民主党背景）和肖公司研究公司（共和党背景）联合指导，是福克斯新闻民调。访谈对象为从全州选民档案中随机抽取的2011名德克萨斯州登记选民。受访者通过固定电话（205人）和手机（1303人）与现场访谈员交谈，或在收到短信后在线完成问卷（503人）。
Conducted October 15-19, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 2,011 Texas registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (205) and cellphones (1,303) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (503).
基于登记选民样本的结果抽样误差为±2个百分点，1398名可能投票者的子样本抽样误差为±2.5个百分点。子群体结果的抽样误差更高。除了抽样误差外，问题措辞和顺序也可能影响结果。制定权重目标的来源包括最近的美国社区调查、福克斯新闻选民分析和选民档案数据。权重通常应用于年龄、种族、教育和地区变量，以确保受访者的人口统计特征代表登记选民群体。
Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2 percentage points, and for the subsample of 1,398 likely voters it is ±2.5 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling errors, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population.
可能投票者基于概率统计模型确定，该模型依赖过去的投票历史、对当前选举的关注度、投票意向、年龄、教育、种族、族裔和婚姻状况。只有当样本量至少达到N=100时，才显示子群体结果。
Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, intention to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity and marital status. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.