根据最新民意调查结果，在这场备受关注的参议院选举中，民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）和共和党候选人肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton）的支持率势均力敌。
Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are in a dead heat for the Senate in Texas, according to new polling of one of the cycle’s most closely watched contests.
埃默森学院民意调查机构（Emerson College Polling）与《The Hill》联合发布的最新数据显示，塔拉里科的支持率为48%，帕克斯顿的支持率为46%，这一结果仍在民意调查的误差范围内。另有5%的选民尚未做出决定，1%的选民选择了自由党候选人泰德·布朗（Ted Brown）。
Talarico notched 48 percent to Paxton’s 46 percent in new numbers from Emerson College Polling and The Hill, a result within the poll’s margin of error. Another 5 percent were undecided, and 1 percent picked Libertarian Ted Brown.
当被问及倾向于哪位候选人时，塔拉里科的支持率上升至49%，帕克斯顿的支持率降至48%，布朗的支持率降至3%。
When undecided voters were asked which candidate they lean toward, Talarico’s support jumped to 49 percent, Paxton to 48 percent and Brown to 3 percent.
埃默森学院民意调查的执行主任斯宾塞·金博尔（Spencer Kimball）表示：“自8月以来，塔拉里科的支持率每月稳步上升约1个百分点（从46%升至48%），而帕克斯顿的支持率则一直维持在46%至47%之间。”
“Since August, Talarico’s support has slowly inched up by about a point each month, from 46% to 48%, while Paxton has hovered between 46% and 47%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
布朗作为自由党候选人虽然目前仅获得3%的支持率，但他的参选结果仍可能改变选举格局。金博尔分析道：“如果这位自由党候选人在选举前的支持率下降，由于这些第三方选民多为独立选民或共和党支持者，帕克斯顿的支持率可能会上升；反之，如果布朗的支持率保持不变，塔拉里科将占据优势。”
Brown’s Libertarian bid could also change the game. “If the Libertarian candidate, who is at 3% on the final ballot, sees his support melt between now and Election Day, Paxton likely sees his vote share increase as these third-party voters are independents or Republicans, but if it holds, Talarico benefits,” Kimball said.
这场激烈的参议院竞选吸引了大量资金投入，并引发了全国范围内的广泛关注。长期以来，共和党一直主导着德克萨斯州的政治局势，但帕克斯顿充满争议的竞选活动以及塔拉里科强大的基层支持网络为民主党带来了希望——他们有望时隔数十年再次赢得该州的参议院席位。
Talarico and Paxton are locked in a tough race that’s drawn huge fundraising numbers and national attention in the tussle for Senate control. Republicans have long dominated the Lone Star State, but Paxton’s controversy-laden campaign and Talarico’s grassroots energy have given Democrats hope of their first flip in decades.
今年第三季度，塔拉里科筹集了高达6400万美元的竞选资金，而帕克斯顿仅筹集了1800万美元。不过根据上周公布的文件，科技大亨埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）向支持帕克斯顿的超级政治行动委员会（super PAC）捐赠了1.58亿美元，以帮助共和党保住这个席位。
Talarico raised a staggering $64 million in the third quarter of the year, compared to Paxton’s $18 million. But tech mogul Elon Musk poured $158 million into a super PAC backing Paxton, according to filings last week, as Republicans try to keep the seat.
与此同时，在德克萨斯州州长选举中，共和党人格雷格·阿博特（Greg Abbott）在埃默森学院的民意调查中略占优势，他正在争取连任。阿博特的支持率为49%，民主党候选人吉娜·伊诺霍萨（Gina Hinojosa）的支持率为45%，另有4%的选民尚未做出决定。
Meanwhile, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) boasted a slight lead in the Emerson polling of the gubernatorial race as he tries for a fourth term. Abbott scored 49 percent to Democrat Gina Hinojosa’s 45 percent, while Libertarian Pat Dixon snagged 1 percent and another 4 percent were undecided.
当那些尚未做出决定的选民被迫做出选择时，阿博特的支持率上升到了51%，希诺霍萨的支持率为47%，迪克森的支持率则为2%。
When undecided voters were forced to a choice, Abbott jumped to 51 percent, Hinojosa to 47 percent and Dixon to 2 percent.
Decision Desk HQ（DDHQ）认为德克萨斯州参议院的选举结果难以预测（即胜负难分），不过塔拉里科略占优势。至于州长选举，目前的形势更倾向于共和党一方（即共和党更有可能获胜）。
Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) rates the Texas Senate a toss-up, with Talarico narrowly favored. The governor’s race has a “lean Republican” rating, a step short of being a toss-up.
这项由埃默森学院（Emerson College）进行的民意调查于10月17日至19日对1000名可能的德克萨斯州选民进行了调查；其可信度区间（即调查结果的误差范围）为正负3.1%。
The Emerson College Polling Texas survey was conducted Oct. 17-19 among 1,000 likely Texas voters and has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, of plus or minus 3.1 percent.