中期选举还有三周的时间，一些州的投票已经开始了。博彩网站Kalshi显示，民主党赢得参议院控制权的概率为61%。
The midterm elections are three weeks away. In some states, voting has already begun.
然而，德克萨斯州和密歇根州的最新选举形势表明，民主党人获胜的可能性并不大。
Betting site Kalshi shows odds of 61% that Democrats will win control of the senate.
随着选民对德克萨斯州的领先候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）以及密歇根州的领先候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德（Abdul El-Sayed）了解得越来越多，民调结果正在发生变化。有观点认为，过于亲密的关系反而会引发对方的反感——在政治领域，这一点尤为明显。
Recent developments in the Texas and Michigan races suggest keeping your money in your pocket. As voters find out more about front-runner Democrats James Talarico in Texas and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, the polls are tightening.
肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton）批评塔拉里科在特朗普集会上缺席了11天，这一行为引发了塔拉里科竞选团队的强烈反应。塔拉里科可以被看作是2026年的贝托·奥鲁克（Beto O’Rourke）的翻版：奥鲁克曾在2018年试图竞选参议员时，通过直播自己刷牙的过程来吸引关注，但最终还是输给了共和党候选人泰德·克鲁兹（Ted Cruz）。
They say intimacy breeds contempt; nowhere is this truer than in politics. KEN PAXTON CALLS OUT JAMES TALARICO'S 11-DAY ABSENCE AT TRUMP RALLY, PROMPTING RESPONSE FROM CAMPAIGN Talarico is the 2026 version of 2018 senate wannabe Beto O’Rourke, who memorably live-streamed his teeth-cleaning as a campaign stunt, but ultimately lost to Republican Ted Cruz despite his laudable dental hygiene.
塔拉里科是一位长相英俊的37岁州议员，但在选举前夕突然消失了近两周。他声称自己得了流感……但他难道不知道“Theraflu”这种退烧药的存在吗？他也听说过“Zoom”这个视频会议软件吗？
Talarico, a photogenic 37-year-old state representative, recently vanished from public view for nearly two weeks, an extraordinary absence so close to Election Day. He says he had the flu; does he not know about Theraflu? Has he heard of Zoom?
他的突然失踪引发了一系列看似荒谬的谣言。由于塔拉里科过去曾表达过一些极端或离奇的观点（比如认为存在六种性别，或者认为上帝是“非二元性别”的），一些选民很容易相信这些谣言。
His disappearance gave rise to a whirlwind of apparently erroneous rumors. Because Talarico has voiced some wacky ideas in the past, like believing there are six genders or that God is non-binary — which he has been forced to walk back — some voters are primed to believe such rumors.
作为该州的总检察长，肯·帕克斯顿是一个不受欢迎的候选人，他的竞选团队资金充足，他们投放的广告中显示塔拉里科发表了诸如“我一直认为自己是基督徒，但实际上却厌恶基督教”之类的煽动性言论。此外，还有证据表明塔拉里科曾在担任州议员期间投票反对禁止生理男性参加女子体育比赛的禁令……真是令人尴尬。
'FAKE' MODERATE TALARICO'S TEXAS SURGE TESTS PAXTON IN FIGHT TO HOLD CRUCIAL GOP SENATE SEAT Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general, is an unpopular candidate and carries considerable baggage, but his well-funded campaign is running ads showing Talarico making incendiary comments like, "I always think of myself as a Christian who hates Christianity." Talarico has also been outed as having previously voted as a state representative against bans on biological men playing in women’s sports.
贝托·奥罗克部分原因在于在一个大多数人拥有枪支的州，他主张激进的枪支管控而落败。2022年，塔拉利科与德克萨斯州人道立法网络一起出现，警告在一个以畜牧业为荣的州，“减少肉类消费”具有“生存性”必要性。
Oops. Beto O’Rourke lost in part because he embraced aggressive gun control in a state where most people have a gun.
毫无疑问，塔拉利科的进步派年轻支持者不会因他的特殊巡游而气馁，但他长期缺席竞选一线为他的竞选蒙上了一层阴影。一些民调显示他仅微弱领先肯·帕克斯顿；最近的一份马萨诸塞大学洛厄尔分校/尤戈夫民调显示两位候选人势均力敌，有7%的人尚未决定。
In 2022, Talarico appeared with the Texas Humane Legislation Network, warning of the "existential" need to "reduce our meat consumption", in a state that prides itself on its cattle. Undoubtedly, Talarico’s progressive young base will not be deterred by his peculiar walk-about, but his lengthy absence from the campaign trail casts a cloud over his run.
随着特朗普集会以激励他仍然忠诚的支持者，很难想象塔拉利科能够赢得胜利。
Some polls show him barely leading Ken Paxton; a recent UMass Lowell/YouGov poll shows the candidates tied, with 7% undecided.
福克斯新闻民意调查：密歇根州选民在埃尔-赛德和罗杰斯之间分歧明显。自称医生但未获法律许可行医的阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛德，其立场变化之频繁，就像人们换内裤一样。
As Trump rallies to energize his still-faithful base, it’s hard to imagine Talarico pulling out the win. FOX NEWS POLL: MICHIGAN VOTERS SPLIT BETWEEN EL-SAYED AND ROGERS Abdul El-Sayed, who calls himself doctor, but is not legally authorized to practice medicine, has been changing positions as frequently as people change their underwear.
他的政纲核心支柱之一是他对全民医保的热情支持。在2020年的一期播客中，他表示全民医保“将取消私人保险市场。”如今，他的竞选网站写道：“全民医保不必通过工会或雇主禁止额外的私人保险，尽管全民医保应使这些选择变得多余和不必要。”此外，他在初选期间于一月解释道：“如果你喜欢来自雇主或工会的保险，那仍然可以为你所用。”
One of the central planks in his platform has been his enthusiastic endorsement of Medicare-for-all. In a podcast from 2020, he says Medicare-for-All "does away with the private insurance market." Nowadays, his campaign website says: "Medicare for All does not have to ban additional private insurance through unions or employers, although Medicare for All should make those choices redundant and unnecessary." Moreover, during his primary race in January, El-Sayed explained, "If you like your insurance from your employer or from your union, that can still be there for you."
这听起来很像奥巴马总统对易受影响的选民所说：“如果你喜欢你的医疗保健计划，你就能保留它，一点不差。”当数百万美国人看到他们的计划被取消时，Politifact将这一说法称为2013年的年度谎言。
That sounds a lot like President Obama telling gullible voters: "If you like your health care plan, you’ll be able to keep your health care plan, period." After millions of Americans saw their plans cancelled, Politifact dubbed that whopper the 2013 Lie of the Year.
埃尔赛德在其标志性议题上为何出现反转？首先是工会。有组织的劳工在为工人争取昂贵的医疗福利方面做得非常出色——这些福利无疑比山姆大叔所能提供的任何福利都更慷慨。密歇根州有五十万工会成员；他需要他们的票，理想可以不顾。
Why the reversal from El-Sayed on his signature issue? First, unions. Organized labor has done a bang-up job of demanding expensive healthcare benefits for workers — benefits that are undoubtedly more generous than any that would be provided by Uncle Sam. There are half a million union members in the Wolverine State; he needs their vote, ideals be damned.
其次是那些令人头疼的税收。埃尔赛德不得不解释他打算如何为政府运营的医疗保健买单。《桥》杂志的一位撰稿人指出，该杂志是密歇根州的一个非党派新闻机构：“2020年，非党派的城市研究所估计，美国参议员伯尼·桑德斯的全民医保方案将在十年内使联邦政府花费34万亿美元。”专家表示，为这样一个项目筹集的资金不仅会来自富裕阶层，还会来自中产阶级家庭。简而言之，全民医保意味着所有人都要承担更高的税收。埃尔赛德过去已经承认了这一点。
Second, those pesky taxes. El-Sayed has had to explain how he intends to pay for government-run healthcare. A writer at The Bridge, a nonpartisan news organization in Michigan, notes that, "In 2020, the nonpartisan Urban Institute estimated that US Sen. Bernie Sanders’ version of Medicare for All would cost the federal government $34 trillion over a 10-year period." Experts say that money to fund such a program would rope in not just the wealthy, but middle-class families as well. In short, Medicare-for-all would mean higher taxes for all. El-Sayed has admitted as much in the past.
埃尔赛德凭借其在地方县办公室的角色，把自己定位为医疗专家，但这些经历可以说是短暂且无关紧要的。
El-Sayed positions himself as a healthcare expert, given his role in local county offices, but those stints were arguably brief and inconsequential.
此外，令人担忧的是埃尔赛德与反美穆斯林组织和人物的关联，他拒绝谴责这些组织和人物，例如支持者哈桑·皮克尔。在最近的《Meet the Press》节目中，埃尔赛德声称他及其家庭成员均与穆斯林兄弟会无关联，该组织被阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯和埃及列为恐怖组织。但该候选人的同父异母姐姐，芝加哥大学的一名助理教授，却持相反观点，她多年前在社交媒体上声称她的家族“长期以来一直是”穆斯林兄弟会的成员，并且一些亲戚因与该组织的关联而被“监禁”。
Also troubling is El-Sayed’s association with anti-American Muslim organizations and personalities whom he has refused to denounce, like supporter Hasan Piker. On Meet the Press recently, El-Sayed claimed that neither he nor any family members have ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, a group deemed a terror outfit by the UAE, Saudi Arabia and by Egypt. But, the candidate’s half-sister, an assistant professor at the University of Chicago, stated the opposite, claiming on social media years ago that her family "has long been" members of the Muslim Brotherhood and that some relatives had been "jailed" because of their association with the group.
埃尔赛德过去曾声称拥有埃及和美国双重国籍，如今他否认了这一说法，因此也正受到审查。埃尔赛德在2016年向底特律全球医学会议表示：“我拥有双重国籍，并且我在另一个国家度过了大部分暑假……”他在学术简历中也作了同样的声明。他是当时在撒谎，还是现在在撒谎？
El-Sayed is also facing scrutiny for claiming dual citizenship with Egypt and the U.S. in the past, an assertion he now denies. El-Sayed told a Detroit GlobeMed conference in 2016, "I carry dual citizenship, and I grew up spending most of my summers in another country…." He made the same claim on his academic resume.
此外，最近在一场辩论中，有人问埃尔赛德，他是否认为伊朗——作为世界上最大的恐怖主义赞助国——还是以色列对美国构成更大威胁。这位反以色列的进步候选人拒绝回答。对许多人而言，他的回避令人失望，甚至令人不适合担任该职务。
Was he lying then, or is he lying now? Also, recently, asked during a debate whether El-Sayed considers Iran, the world’s biggest sponsor of terror, or Israel a bigger threat to the United States, the progressive anti-Israel candidate refused to answer. For many, his equivocation is disqualifying.
密歇根州的民意调查在过去几周里变得胶着，多项调查显示埃尔赛德仅领先一两个百分点，这已经在误差范围之内。我的猜测是，罗杰斯将获胜。
Michigan polls have tightened in the past couple of weeks, with several now showing El-Sayed up by only one or two points, well within the margin of error. My guess, Rogers prevails.