在选举日之前的几周里，民主党的活动力度以及民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）在民意调查中的高支持率，使他在与共和党候选人肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton）的竞争中占据了微弱的优势。目前来看，这场竞争似乎将进入白热化阶段，最终结果难以预料。
Weeks before Election Day Democratic engagement and positive ratings give Democrat James Talarico a razor-thin edge over Republican Ken Paxton in what is, so far, shaping up to be a photo finish for the Lone Star State’s U.S. Senate seat.
这份分析报告于周四发布，调查对象为德克萨斯州的潜在选民（除非另有说明）。
This analysis, released Thursday, is among Texas likely voters, unless otherwise noted.
塔拉里科的个人支持率明显高于帕克斯顿：52%的受访者表示对他持正面看法，而只有44%的人持负面看法；相比之下，帕克斯顿的支持率则低了18个百分点（40%对58%）。共和党选民中，对帕克斯顿持负面看法的比例是民主党选民的六倍（32%对5%）。
Talarico enjoys a net positive personal rating of 8 points (52% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable), while Paxton’s is underwater by 18 points (40% vs. 58%). Republicans are six times more likely to view Paxton unfavorably (32%) than Democrats do Talarico (5%).
此外，共和党在选民积极性方面也存在明显差距：支持“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）理念的共和党选民对这次中期选举表现出更高的兴趣（64%对50%），并且他们更确信自己会投票（76%对65%）；而反对这一理念的共和党选民中，也有近三分之二的人表示对选举非常感兴趣，并且几乎四分之三的人确定会投票。
The GOP also has an enthusiasm gap. More MAGA than non-MAGA Republicans are extremely interested in the midterms (64% vs. 50%) and certain they will vote (76% vs. 65%). By contrast, two-thirds of DSA and non-DSA Democrats are extremely interested, and nearly three-quarters of both groups are certain they will vote.
福克斯新闻民意调查：密歇根州选民意见分歧在德克萨斯州的潜在选民中，对于参议院的控制权问题，49%的人支持民主党占据上议院席位，50%的人支持共和党。在自认为是共和党人的受访者中，有8%的人倾向于民主党获胜；而在民主党选民中，只有1%的人会转而支持共和党。
FOX NEWS POLL: MICHIGAN VOTERS SPLIT BETWEEN EL-SAYED AND ROGERS Overall, Texas likely voters split on control of the Senate 49% prefer a Democratic Senate while 50% favor a Republican upper chamber. Eight percent of self-identified Republicans prefer the Democrats in power versus 1% of Democrats crossing over to pick the GOP.
综合这些数据，在福克斯新闻针对德克萨斯州潜在选民进行的第一次民意调查中，塔拉里科以2个百分点的优势领先帕克斯顿（51%对49%）；不过需要注意的是，这些数据仍在抽样误差范围内。在样本量更大的调查中，塔拉里科的优势扩大到了7个百分点（略超出抽样误差范围）。这一变化较7月份的调查结果更为明显。
All this gives Talarico a slim 2-point edge over Paxton (51-49%) in the first Fox News Poll among Texas likely voters (so no comparisons are available). These matchup results are within the margin of sampling error. Among the larger sample ofed voters, Talarico’s advantage widens to 7 points (just outside the margin of error). That’s up from a 3-point edge in July.
共和党内部的矛盾也体现在选民的偏好上：反对“让美国再次伟大”理念的共和党选民中，有22%的人支持塔拉里科，而支持这一理念的共和党选民中只有4%的人支持塔拉里科。这种分歧反映了共和党党内激烈的竞争氛围——在3月份的初选中，有20%的选民支持现任共和党参议员约翰·科宁（John Cornyn），而在本次选举中，这些选民中有20%转而支持塔拉里科。
GOP ambivalence is further reflected in Senate preferences because non-MAGA Republicans are more than five times more likely to back Talarico than their MAGA counterparts (22% to 4%). The crossover echoes lingering divisions from the competitive GOP primary and runoff: 20% of likely voters who backed Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the March primary back Talarico.
福克斯新闻民调：选民质疑人工智能的潜力是否大于风险 DSA民主党人100%、非DSA民主党人98%支持塔拉里科；在塔拉里科的支持者中，89%确信自己会支持他，略高于帕克斯顿支持者的85%。
FOX NEWS POLL: VOTERS QUESTION WHETHER AI'S PROMISE OUTWEIGHS ITS RISK Fully 100% of DSA Democrats and 98% of non-DSA Democrats back Talarico, and slightly more of his backers are certain of their support (89%) than Paxton backers (85%).
此外，塔拉里科还得到了黑人选民（79%）、温和派（65%）、西班牙裔选民（64%）和35岁以下选民（62%）的强力支持。
In addition, Talarico also gets strong backing from Black voters (79%), moderates (65%), Hispanic voters (64%) and voters under age 35 (62%).
帕克斯顿的支持率最高的人群是白人福音派基督徒（74%）、没有大学学历的白人男性（65%）、农村选民（57%）以及65岁及以上选民（55%）。
Paxton’s best groups are White evangelical Christians (74%), White men without a college degree (65%), rural voters (57%) and voters ages 65 and over (55%).
两位候选人都面临意识形态方面的担忧。认为塔拉里科在相关议题上过于自由派的人占53%，认为帕克斯顿与总统特朗普过于接近的人占51%，两者人数大致相当。
Both candidates face ideological concerns. Roughly equal numbers are concerned Talarico is too liberal on the issues (53% concerned) and Paxton is too close to President Trump (51%).
2024年，总统唐纳德·特朗普以近14个百分点的优势赢得得州。如今，他的总统任职表现支持率净负11个百分点：44%认可，55%不认可。在不认可特朗普的人中，仍有15%支持帕克斯顿；相比之下，在认可特朗普的人中，只有9%支持塔拉里科。
In 2024, President Donald Trump won Texas by nearly 14 percentage points. Today, his job rating is underwater by 11 points: 44% approve vs. 55% disapprove. Fifteen percent of those disapproving still back Paxton compared to 9% of Trump approvers backing Talarico.
经济困境继续主导着舆论叙事。七成得州选民表示，生活成本将对他们的投票极为重要。这又给共和党带来了一个问题，因为认为自己经济状况正在下滑的人（35%）是认为自身经济状况有所好转的人（16%）的两倍多。经济状况正在下滑的人以32个百分点支持塔拉里科，而经济状况有所好转的人则以48个百分点支持帕克斯顿。经济状况保持不变的人占48%，是人数最多的群体，他们以3个百分点的微弱优势支持帕克斯顿。
Economic hardships continue to dominate the narrative. Seven in 10 Texans say the cost of living will be extremely important to their vote, and this is another problem for the Republicans because twice as many voters say they are falling behind financially (35%) as getting ahead (16%). Those falling behind back Talarico by 32 points, while those getting ahead favor Paxton by 48 points. Those holding steady (48%), the largest group, narrowly back Paxton by 3 points.
近一半人表示，特朗普（48%）和移民问题（47%）将对他们的投票极为重要；三分之一的人也表示，人工智能技术（34%）同样至关重要。
Nearly half say Trump (48%) and immigration (47%) will be extremely important to their vote, while one-third say the same about artificial intelligence technology (34%).
在认为生活成本、人工智能和特朗普对参议院选举投票极为重要的选民中，塔拉里科分别领先19、18和6个百分点；重视移民问题的选民则支持帕克斯顿，后者领先20个百分点。
Talarico holds wide leads among those saying the cost of living (Talarico +19), artificial intelligence (+18) and Trump (+6) will be extremely important to their Senate vote, while immigration-focused voters back Paxton (+20).
在州长竞选中，现任共和党人格雷格·阿博特（Greg Abbott）凭借其积极的工作支持率，在与民主党挑战者吉娜·伊诺霍萨（Gina Hinojosa）的对决中占据优势。这位已连任三届的州长目前以52%对47%的支持率领先于这位得克萨斯州众议院议员。
In the governor’s race, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott’s positive job ratings give him an edge over Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa. The three-time incumbent has a 52%-47% advantage over the Texas state House representative.
超过半数（52%）的受访者认可阿博特作为州长的工作表现，同样比例的人支持他连任。另有47%的人表示不认可，这一比例与支持伊诺霍萨的人数相同。
Over half, 52%, approve of the job Abbott is doing as governor, and that same share backs him in the race. Another 47% disapprove, the same number who back Hinojosa.
阿博特的情况比帕克斯顿（Paxton）更好，因为他在男性、共和党人和温和派选民中的支持率略高。在州长竞选中，女性选民的态度则更为均衡。
Abbott fares better than Paxton because he has slightly higher support among men, Republicans and moderates. Women are more evenly divided in the governor’s race.
点击此处查看交叉分析摘要。阿博特还拥有适度的跨党派支持优势：10%的塔拉里科（Talarico）支持者在州长竞选中支持阿博特，而仅有3%的帕克斯顿支持者在州长竞选中支持伊诺霍萨。
CLICK HERE FOR CROSSTABS TOPLINE Abbott also has a modest crossover advantage: 10% of Talarico supporters back Abbott for governor while just 3% of Paxton supporters do the same for Hinojosa.
“得克萨斯州的民主党人会为了投票反对特朗普而不惜一切代价，因此问题在于，在没有特朗普参与且参议院竞选涉及一位颇具争议的共和党候选人的情况下，普通共和党人是否会去投票，”共和党民调专家达伦·肖（Daron Shaw）表示。他与民主党人克里斯·安德森（Chris Anderson）共同负责福克斯新闻民调。
"Democrats in Texas will walk across broken glass to vote against Trump, so the question is whether the average Republican will vote in an election without Trump and where the Senate race features a controversial GOP candidate," said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News Polls with Democrat Chris Anderson.
“讽刺的是，帕克斯顿的政治生命可能要归功于阿博特，因为阿博特承担了共和党大部分的动员投票工作。”本次福克斯新闻民调于2026年9月24日至28日进行，由Beacon Research（民主党）和Shaw & Company Research（共和党）共同指导。民调对从全州选民名单中随机抽取的1203名得克萨斯州选民进行了采访。受访者通过座机（127人）和手机（789人）接受了人工采访，或在收到短信后在线完成了调查（287人）。
"Ironically, Paxton may owe his political life to Abbott, who is doing most of the get-out-the-vote work for the Republicans." Conducted September 24-28, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,203 Texased voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (127) and cellphones (789) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (287).
基于选民样本的结果抽样误差幅度为±2.5个百分点，881名可能投票选民的子样本误差幅度为±3个百分点。
Results based on theed voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points, and for the subsample of 881 likely voters it is ±3 percentage points.
子群体结果的抽样误差较高。除抽样误差外，问题的措辞和顺序也会影响结果。制定加权目标的来源包括最新的美国社区调查（American Community Survey）、福克斯新闻选民分析（Fox News Voter Analysis）以及选民档案数据。权重通常应用于年龄、种族、教育程度和地区变量，以确保受访者的人口统计特征能够代表登记选民群体。
Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling errors, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of theed voter population.
可能选民的确定基于一种概率统计模型，该模型依赖于过往投票记录、对当前选举的兴趣、投票意向、年龄、教育程度、种族、族裔和婚姻状况。子群体结果仅在样本量至少为 N=100 时才会显示。
Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, intention to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity and marital status. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.