新民调显示，德克萨斯州在参议院和州长选举中的竞争异常激烈。周二和周三发布的三项新民调显示，在备受关注的德克萨斯州参议院选举中，州议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科（民主党）正领先于得州司法部长肯·帕克斯顿（共和党）。
New polls show tight contests in Texas in the race for U.S. Senate and governor. Three new polls released Tuesday and Wednesday show state Rep. James Talarico (D) leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in the closely-watched Texas Senate race.
德克萨斯大学德州政治项目（TPP）的调查显示，塔拉里科在可能投票者中以50%对47%领先帕克斯顿3个百分点。这一领先幅度与该机构8月份对可能投票者的调查结果一致。
The University of Texas’ Texas Politics Project (TPP) found Talarico leading Paxton by three points among likely voters, 50 percent to 47 percent. That is the same margin TPP had Talarico ahead by amonged voters in August.
ReconMR/Siena民调显示，塔拉里科在可能投票者中以48%对44%领先4个百分点，这一优势较其在9月民调中的6个百分点领先有所缩小。而马里斯特大学民调则显示，塔拉里科以47%对45%领先2个百分点，同样低于其在该机构9月民调中的6个百分点领先。
A ReconMR/Siena poll found Talarico ahead by four points among likely voters, 48 percent to 44 percent, closer than his six-point lead in their September poll. And a Marist University poll found Talarico leading by two points, 47 to 45 percent, also closer than his six-point lead in the Marist’s September poll.
自1994年以来，民主党尚未在德克萨斯州赢得任何全州范围的选举，且该党自1988年以来尚未在此州赢得参议院选举。今年，塔拉里科在公开民调中的持续领先让民主党对其胜算感到乐观。
No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, and the party has not won a Senate race in the Lone Star State since 1988. This year, Talarico’s consistent lead in public polling has the party feeling optimistic about its odds.
非党派选举网站Decision Desk HQ（DDHQ）——《国会山报》的合作伙伴——给予塔拉里科翻转德克萨斯州参议院席位的可能性为56%。在DDHQ的民调平均值中，他平均领先2.5个百分点。
The nonpartisan election site Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), a partner of The Hill, gives Talarico a 56% chance to flip the Texas Senate seat. He leads by an average of 2.5 points in DDHQ’s polling average.
参议院选举在2026年选举周期的大部分时间里一直被视为竞争激烈。而德克萨斯州州长选举起初被视为共和党州长格雷格·阿博特的确保胜选。
The Senate race has been considered competitive for much of the 2026 cycle. The Texas governor’s race, on the other hand, was initially viewed as a sure bet for Republican Gov. Greg Abbott.
阿博特正竞选第四个任期，但近年来他的民调领先幅度持续收窄，而他的民主党对手、州议员吉娜·希诺霍萨则持续攀升。
Abbott, who is running for a fourth term in office, has seen his polling lead steadily shrink in recent months as his Democratic opponent, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, continues to gain ground.
最新民调显示，州长选举竞争异常激烈。TPP的调查显示，希诺霍萨以49%对48%领先阿博特1个百分点；而ReconMR/Siena则显示阿博特以48%对47%领先1个百分点；马里斯特民调则显示阿博特以49%对45%领先4个百分点。自1990年以来，民主党尚未在德克萨斯州赢得任何州长选举。
The latest polling shows a tight race. TPP’s poll has Hinojosa leading Abbott by one point, 49 percent to 48 percent, while ReconMR/Siena has Abbott up by one point, 48 percent to 47 percent, and Marist shows Abbott up by four points, 49 percent to 45 percent. Democrats have not won a governor’s race in Texas since 1990.
德克萨斯州将于周一开始提前投票。2024年，德克萨斯州大约80%的选票是在提前投票中投出的。今年的初选投票打破了投票率纪录。
Early voting begins in Texas on Monday. In 2024, roughly 80 percent of all votes in Texas were cast early. Turnout broke records in this year’s primary voting.