你好，我是Priyanka Salve，从新加坡向你报道。欢迎收看《深度印度》最新一期——这是你了解世界增长最快的大型经济体故事与动态的一站式目的地。
Hello, this is Priyanka Salve, writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to the latest edition of "Inside India" — your one-stop destination for stories and developments from the world's fastest-growing large economy.
印度是最大的农产品生产国之一，也是世界上最大的大米和糖出口国之一。其农场帮助养活近15亿人，抑制供给侧通胀，并维持印度46.1%的劳动力就业，推动消费支出。
India is one of the largest producers of farm products and ranks among the world's top exporters of rice and sugar. Its farms help to feed almost 1.5 billion people, keep supply-side inflation under check, and sustain 46.1% of India's workforce, driving consumer spending.
但这一关键部门现在面临所谓超级厄尔尼诺现象的炙烤。本周我将深入探讨这一全球性天气事件对印度意味着什么。对今天的通讯有什么想法？请与团队分享。对世界增长最快的经济体来说，今年并没有变得更好。
But this crucial sector now faces the heat from the so-called super El Niño. This week I dig deeper to understand what this global weather event holds for India. Any thoughts on today's newsletter? Share them with the team. This year is not getting any better for the world's fastest-growing economy.
超级厄尔尼诺天气现象正成为印度增长的最新逆风，而印度增长已面临全球能源冲击、与美国的贸易不确定性以及外国投资者从其股市创纪录撤资的挑战。
The super El Niño weather phenomenon is emerging as the latest headwind for India's growth, which is already facing global energy shocks, trade uncertainty with the U.S. and record exits of foreign investors from its equity markets.
据当地媒体报道，6月至9月是印度以雨养农场和水库的关键季节，印度降雨量为十多年来最低。据印度气象局称，这是2001年以来第四低、1901年以来第13干旱的年份。
From June to September, a key season for its mostly rain-fed farms and reservoirs, India received its lowest rainfall in more than a decade, as per local media reports. It was the fourth lowest since 2001, and the 13th driest since 1901, according to the India Meteorological Department.
据野村证券周一的一份报告称，截至9月底，全国水库蓄水量比满负荷少28%，对冬季作物构成威胁。野村指出，马哈拉施特拉邦、安得拉邦、旁遮普邦和哈里亚纳邦等主要农业州的多个地区面临极端“干旱状况”。
Reservoirs in the country were 28% short of full capacity at the end of September and posed a risk to winter crops, according to a report by Nomura on Monday. Several parts of key farm states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, and Haryana are facing extreme "drought conditions," Nomura stated.
外交部长苏布拉马尼扬·贾伊尚卡尔上周在非营利组织亚洲协会于纽约举办的活动上表示，由于中东和俄罗斯的主要生产商受地缘政治冲突影响，印度和其他国家正面临“严重的化肥短缺”。
India and other countries are contending with "significant fertilizer shortages" as key producers in the Middle East and Russia have been impacted by geopolitical conflicts, Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said at an event organized by the non-profit Asia Society in New York last week.
贾伊尚卡尔警告称，加上超级厄尔尼诺现象的影响，“未来几个月将出现严重的粮食危机”。他说，能源冲击和资金流向避险港湾，对“全球南方”经济体造成了“巨大压力”。“全球南方”是一个用来描述欠发达或新兴经济体的术语。
Jaishankar warned that with the super El Niño added to the mix, "there is going to be a major food crisis" in the coming months. Energy shocks and the flow of money to safe harbors have been "very stressful" for economies of the Global South, he said. The Global South is a term used to characterize less-developed or emerging economies.
在贾伊尚卡尔发表上述言论后，印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪的政敌指责政府未能及时采取行动以避免危机。
Following Jaishankar's comments, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's political opponents blamed the government for not acting in time to avert the crisis.
超级厄尔尼诺现象的影响 印度通胀已连续10个月上升，8月份突破了央行4%的中期目标，尽管经济增长迄今仍保持韧性。
Super El Niño impact Inflation in India has been rising for 10 straight months, crossing the central bank's medium-term target of 4% in August, even as economic growth has been resilient so far.
虽然农业在印度经济中的占比约为17%，但它为印度约46.1%的劳动力提供了生计。农产品在抑制国内供给侧通胀方面起着关键作用，印度也是全球大米和糖的主要出口国之一。主要依赖农业的农村经济，也是消费支出的重要支柱。
While the share of farming in India's economy is around 17%, it provides a livelihood to roughly 46.1% of India's workforce. Its produce is pivotal in curbing supply-side inflation domestically, and the country ranks among the top global exporters of rice and sugar. The rural economy, largely dependent on farming, is also an important pillar of consumer spending.
世界银行周二在一份报告中表示，印度的“季风降雨短缺似乎比最初预期的更大”。“报告称，这预计将减少农业产出和农村需求，同时推高食品通胀，加剧现有的高能源价格压力。”
India's "monsoon deficit appears to be larger than originally expected," the World Bank said in a report on Tuesday. "This is expected to reduce agricultural output and rural demand while increasing food inflation, adding to existing pressure from higher energy prices," the report said.
根据咨询公司尼尔森消费者的数据，农村地区占快速消费品销售的近40%。根据基于年报和财报电话会议的市场数据，农村需求对印度的主要跨国公司至关重要，如印度联合利华、高露洁-棕榄印度、雀巢印度，以及汽车制造商马鲁蒂铃木和现代汽车。
Rural areas account for nearly 40% of sales of fast-moving consumer goods, according to data from consultancy Nielsen Consumer. Rural demand is key for major multinational companies in India such as Hindustan Unilever, Colgate-Palmolive India, Nestle India, and the automakers Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai Motors, per market data based on annual reports and earnings calls.
据标普全球市场情报亚太区经济主管汉娜·卢奇尼卡娃-肖尔施表示，由于干旱状况、季风降雨低于正常水平以及水库水位下降导致农作物减产和农民收入减少，印度农村经济预计将在2026年和2027年“大幅”放缓。
According to Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, head of Asia-Pacific economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, India's rural economy is likely to slow "materially" in 2026 and 2027, "as drought conditions, below-normal monsoon rainfall and depleted reservoir levels reduce crop yields and farm incomes."
尽管宏观指标目前仍保持韧性，但卢奇尼卡娃-肖尔施对CNBC表示，“压力的早期迹象已经出现”，并补充称拖拉机销售放缓，“对农村就业支持计划的需求已开始上升”。摩根斯坦利估计，截至2027年3月的财年，印度农业部门的增加值将增长1.6%，远低于过去三年3.5%的增速。标普全球市场情报分析预测增速将降至1.9%。
While broader indicators have remained resilient so far, Luchnikava-Schorsch told CNBC that "early signs of stress are already emerging," adding that tractor sales had slowed and "demand for rural employment support programs has begun to rise." Morgan Stanley estimated that the gross value added by India's agricultural sector will grow by 1.6% in the financial year ending in March 2027, much slower than the 3.5% growth seen over the past three years. S&P Global Market Intelligence Analysis forecast growth would cool to 1.9%.
专家一致认为，在超级厄尔尼诺现象方面，印度是受影响最严重的亚洲主要经济体之一，但虽然许多人希望该国能利用其政策缓冲应对后果，但也有人预测这有可能引发动荡。
Experts agreed that India is among the most exposed major Asian economies when it comes to the super El Niño, but while many are hopeful that the country will manage the fallout using its policy buffers, some predicted it has the potential to stir unrest.
全球风险咨询公司Verisk Maplecroft在9月16日的一份报告中称：“南亚和东南亚的粮食安全风险将上升，增加了亚洲一些受影响最严重的经济体发生动荡和政治不稳定的可能性。”
"Food security risks across South and Southeast Asia are set to rise, raising the potential for unrest and political instability in some of Asia's most exposed economies," according to global risk advisory firm Verisk Maplecroft in a Sept. 16 report.
Verisk Maplecroft表示，印度、印度尼西亚、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国和菲律宾等国面临的超级厄尔尼诺引发的粮食安全风险最高，同时也因物价上涨面临最高的社会动荡风险。
India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Philippines are among the countries that are most exposed to food security risk from the super El Niño and also face the highest risk of civil unrest due to rising prices, Verisk Maplecroft said.
需知：印度央行自2023年以来首次加息，因通胀风险累积。印度储备银行周三自2023年以来首次加息，加入多家主要央行收紧货币政策的行列，以遏制加速上涨的通胀。该行将基准回购利率上调25个基点，至一年高点5.50%。
Need to know India's central bank hikes rates for the first time since 2023 as inflation risks build The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, joining several major central banks in tightening monetary policy to arrest accelerating inflation. It increased the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to a 1-year high of 5.50%.
美国贸易代表格里尔表示，在与莫迪和特朗普通话后，与印度的协议并非“迫在眉睫”。美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔周四暗示，与印度的协议短期内不太可能达成，因为华盛顿和新德里仍在敲定备受期待的协议的细节。“让步与索取”的空间有限：印度财政部长确认与美国的贸易僵局印度财政部长尼尔玛拉·西塔拉曼表示，与美国的贸易谈判已陷入停滞，这加剧了外界对新德里与华盛顿之间达成协议前景的怀疑。10月12日：9月消费者价格指数数据10月14日：9月印度批发价格指数
U.S. trade representative Greer says deal with India not 'imminent' after Modi-Trump call U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer on Thursday signaled that a deal with India was not on the cards soon, as Washington and New Delhi continue to hash out the finer points of a much-awaited agreement. Little room for 'giving and taking': India's finance minister confirms trade impasse with the U.S. India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said trade talks with the U.S. had reached a plateau, adding to growing skepticism around a deal between New Delhi and Washington. Coming up Oct. 12: Consumer price index data for September Oct. 14: India wholesale price index for September