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高市早苗称日本经济不需要再通胀政策Takaichi Says Japan’s Economy Doesn’t Need Reflationary Policy

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作者:照木明美、藤冈彻日本首相高市早苗表示,由于日本经济已不再处于通缩状态,因此不再需要刺激通胀的政策。这一表态与美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特近期的言论相呼应。

Minister Sanae Takaichi said Japan no longer needs policy to stimulate inflation as the economy isn’t in a state of deflation anymore, echoing a comment made recently by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

高市早苗周四在国会回应质询时表示:“日本经济已不再处于需要依靠货币宽松和财政扩张等再通胀政策的阶段。”她强调,其政策“与所谓的再通胀政策有所不同”。

“Japan’s economy is no longer at a stage where it needs reflationary policies with monetary easing and fiscal expansion,” Takaichi said in response to questions in parliament Thursday. Her policy “differs from so-called reflationary policy,” she said.

近期,高市早苗政府发出了一系列信号,表明其正逐步超越再通胀政策,这紧随贝森特关于日本应放弃再通胀努力的言论之后。日本央行行长植田和男也在上月表示,央行政策阶段已经转变,目前需要更加关注价格上行风险。

Takaichi’s government has sent a series of signals lately that it is moving beyond reflationary policy, following Bessent’s remarks that Japan should leave efforts to reflate the economy behind. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda also said last month that the central bank’s policy phase has shifted, with more focus now needed on upside price risks.

目前尚不清楚,这一转变是否意味着政府也乐于看到日本央行继续以投资者普遍预期的更快步伐加息。掉期合约显示,投资者认为到12月再加息一次的概率约为90%。高市早苗表示:“我对日本央行的独立性怀有最高程度的尊重。”

What remains unclear is whether that shift means the government is also comfortable with the BOJ continuing to raise rates at a faster pace now widely expected by investors. Swap contracts imply that investors see around a 90% of probability for another rate hike by December. “I have utmost respect for the autonomy of the BOJ,” Takaichi said.

这番言论发表之际,植田和男已度过其任期的绝大部分时间,仅剩18个月来塑造其遗产的关键部分:他能否最终将通胀稳定在央行2%的目标水平附近,同时承受来自高市早苗和贝森特的密切关注。

The remarks come as Ueda has completed most of his term, leaving him 18 months to shape a key part of his legacy: whether he can finally stabilize inflation around the bank’s 2% target while under close scrutiny from Takaichi and Bessent.

贝森特对日本政策的表态异常高调,今年他协助东京方面支持日元,包括7月进行的28年来首次联合干预以支撑汇率。贝森特表示,日本应继续将政策从旨在刺激通胀的超低利率水平中正常化。他指出,较高的利率将有助于日元找到合适的水平。

The Treasury secretary has been unusually vocal about policy in Japan, having helped Tokyo support the yen this year, including the first joint intervention to prop up the currency in 28 years in July. Bessent has said that Japan should keep normalizing policy away from ultralow interest rate levels aimed at stimulating inflation. Higher rates would help the yen find an appropriate level, he has indicated.

在近期政府官员纷纷与超宽松政策保持距离的言论中,财务大臣片山皋月表示,高市早苗并非“通货再膨胀论者”,而这一标签长期以来一直与高市联系在一起。

Among recent comments from government officials distancing themselves from ultraloose policy, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that Takaichi wasn’t a reflationist, a label she has long been associated with.

同样被广泛认为支持宽松财政和货币政策的增长战略担当大臣城内实也表示,日本已不再需要通货再膨胀政策。高市早苗核心经济小组的成员若田部昌澄也表达了同样的观点。

Growth Strategy Minister Minoru Kiuchi, who is also widely associated with easy fiscal and monetary policy, also said the nation no longer needs a reflationary policy, a view echoed by Masazumi Wakatabe, a member of Takaichi’s key economic panel.

预计日本的通胀率将在明年初向3%攀升。截至2025年,核心通胀指标已连续四年保持在日本央行2%的目标之上。该行最新的通胀预测也显示,未来几年通胀率将继续维持在2%以上。

Japan’s inflation is expected to pick up toward 3% toward early next year. The core inflation gauge has stayed above the BOJ’s 2% target on an annual basis for four straight years through 2025. The bank’s latest inflation forecast also shows it staying above 2% in coming years.

植田和男的五年任期将于2028年4月结束。到目前为止,他所取得的成就超出了许多日本央行观察人士在他上任时的预期。他以比预期快得多的速度拆解了日本央行的大规模货币宽松计划,包括全球最后的负利率政策和收益率曲线控制框架,且并未引发市场动荡。

Ueda’s five-year term ends in April 2028. So far, he has accomplished more than many BOJ watchers imagined when he took office. He dismantled the central bank’s massive monetary easing program, including the world’s last negative interest rate and a yield curve control framework, at a much faster pace than expected and without buckling markets.